The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features a 10-game main slate starting at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Chris Paul has been a bit of a disappointment recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of -2.53 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. That said, his salary has decreased by $600 over that time frame, and he has a wonderful matchup today against the New Orleans Pelicans. The Rockets are implied for a slate-high 117.25 points, and Paul leads all PGs with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.15. He’s an intriguing buy-low option on today’s slate.
Value
What happens when you remove Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Kevin Durant from the Warriors? Turns out, they’re pretty pedestrian. They managed to score just 93 points yesterday against the Sacramento Kings – who rank 29th in defensive efficiency this season – and they’re currently just three-point favorites on the road against the Phoenix Suns. However, there is some room for optimism today. Yesterday’s game against the Kings was played at a snail-like pace, but today’s matchup versus the Suns should be much more uptempo.
One player who managed to shine for the replacement Warriors was Quinn Cook. He turned in 42.50 DraftKings points in more than 40 minutes, and he has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.86 on today’s slate. He’s priced near the minimum on DraftKings, and his current $3,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86 percent.
Fast Break
Dennis Smith Jr. has failed to exceed salary-based expectations in each of his past three games, but the amount of minutes he’s been playing bodes well for him moving forward. He saw 36 minutes yesterday against the Toronto Raptors and has averaged 0.93 fantasy points per minute on the season. He’s in a much better spot for DFS purposes today against the Brooklyn Nets, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.47. He’s a slightly better value on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 81 percent.
Jeff Teague is in an interesting spot today. On one hand, he has a difficult matchup against the San Antonio Spurs. The Timberwolves are implied for just 102.75 points on today’s slate, which represents a decrease of more than seven points compared to their season-average (109.8). On the other hand, Teague has been priced down to just $6,100 on DraftKings, and that’s just too cheap given his production without Jimmy Butler this season. He’s seen a team-high usage bump of 2.9 percent in games with Butler out of the lineup, resulting in an average of 1.00 DraftKings point per minute:
He’s been even better than that recently, averaging 1.11 fantasy points per minute over the past month. He could be worth some exposure on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 95 percent.
Shooting Guard
Studs
The Rockets continue to destroy almost everything in their path, winning 20 of their past 21 games, although that hasn’t led to a lot of fantasy success for James Harden recently. He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in just two of his past eight games, resulting in an Upside Rating of 20 percent on DraftKings over the past month. That said, he benefits from the same elite matchup as Paul versus the Pelicans, and Harden has absolutely crushed this team over the past three seasons:
He’s currently projected for just nine to 12 percent ownership in our NBA Models, and the thought of getting Harden at reduced ownership in an elite matchup is always enticing.
Most people rostering a SG in this game will likely look to the other side of the matchup. Jrue Holiday has been outstanding over his past 10 games, averaging a Plus/Minus of +6.23 on DraftKings. He’s been excellent in general this season with DeMarcus Cousins out of the lineup, averaging 40.25 DraftKings points per game:
He leads all players on today’s slate with 14 Pro Trends on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 93 percent. He also owns one of the better matchups at the position, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.57.
Value
Nick Young has seen at least 31 minutes in each of the Warriors’ last two games and should see a similar workload today. He has one of the best matchups of the slate, evidenced by his Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.94, and his $4,500 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 86 percent.
Fast Break
Gary Harris will miss today’s contest for the Denver Nuggets, which should give a boost in value for Will Barton. He’s averaged 36.6 minutes per game with Harris out of the lineup this season, resulting in just under 31 FanDuel points per game:
The Nuggets’ matchup against the Memphis Grizzlies isn’t ideal – they’ve played at the slowest pace in the league this season – but Denver is still implied for 111.25 points on today’s slate.
Speaking of the Grizzlies, Tyreke Evans returned to their lineup three games ago and has exceeded salary-based expectations in each game. They’ve sorely missed him, especially with Andrew Harrison and Mario Chalmers also battling injuries recently. He’s averaged 1.37 fantasy points per minute since returning and is underpriced across the industry.
Small Forward
Stud
LeBron James has been fantastic recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.20 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. That includes back-to-back performances of at least 69.8 fantasy points, and he’s posted a perfect 100 percent Consistency Rating over the past month. He’s done it with a combination of volume and efficiency: No one on today’s slate is projected for more than his 41.1 minutes, and he’s averaged 1.57 fantasy points per minute over the past month. Even though the Cavs may be underwhelming this season, LeBron continues to amaze in Year 15.
That said, it’s fair to question if LeBron has become too expensive on FanDuel at $12,700. He’s more expensive than both Harden and Anthony Davis on today’s slate; the latter has put together one of the most dominant stretches in the history of NBA DFS. Historically, LeBron has struggled to pay off a comparable salary:
He still offers a tremendous floor, but some of the other superstars might offer more upside on today’s slate.
Value
Andre Iguodala played over 30 minutes yesterday for the Warriors and figures to be a huge part of their rotation give their injuries. He’s averaged 0.89 fantasy points per minute over the past month, and his usage rate of 20.5 percent yesterday was his second-highest mark this season. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.65 on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 95 percent.
Fast Break
The Nets have the potential to be pretty shorthanded at the wing position tonight, with Dante Cunningham already ruled out and Allen Crabbe currently doubtful. That could result in a boost in playing time for DeMarre Carroll and Caris LeVert, both of whom have averaged at least 1.00 fantasy point per minute over the past month. Both players are in play on DraftKings, where each has a Bargain Rating of at least 90 percent.
Wilson Chandler has played at least 40 minutes in each of the past two games and has upped his fantasy production to 0.82 fantasy points per minute over the past month. He should see another heavy workload today with Harris out of the lineup and has a Bargain Rating of 90 percent on FanDuel.
Power Forward
Studs
Anthony Davis disappointed in his most recent contest, scoring just 44.0 DraftKings points against the San Antonio Spurs. They have historically been one of the few teams able to contain Davis, and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of -9.20 against them in his last two meetings. If you remove those performances from his game log, however, he’s been absolutely dominant. He’s averaged 72.77 fantasy points over his previous 11 games, which makes him incredibly enticing today against the Rockets. This game should be one of the highest-scoring of the day – it leads the slate with an over/under of 227 – and Davis has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.37 on DraftKings. He posted 59.25 DraftKings points and a Plus/Minus of +7.68 in his only previous meeting with the Rockets this season, and that came with Cousins in the lineup.
Draymond Green poured in 50.5 FanDuel points in his first game without Curry, Thompson, and Durant, resulting in a Plus/Minus of +15.47 on FanDuel. He saw a healthy boost in usage while maintaining his strong peripherals, which shows the kind of upside he will possess with his star teammates sidelined. He has another great matchup today against the Suns, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.84, and his $7,800 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 99 percent.
Value
Jeff Green saw nearly 34 minutes in the Cavs’ last game and has the potential to see even more playing time today. They’re extremely shorthanded at the moment, with Kevin Love, Larry Nance Jr., Tristan Thompson, Cedi Osman, and Kyle Korver all expected to miss today’s contest. Green has averaged 0.82 fantasy points per minute this season and has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.69 on DraftKings against the Chicago Bulls.
Fast Break
Dwight Powell has been priced down to $4,800 on FanDuel, giving him a Bargain Rating of 95 percent. He’s coming off 33 minutes in his most recent game against the Raptors and has averaged 0.96 fantasy points per minute over the past month. He has a strong matchup today against the Brooklyn Nets, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.43.
Center
Stud
Karl-Anthony Towns has seen a nice spike in production recently. He’s averaged 1.37 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +4.78 over his past 10 games. He has a tough matchup against the Spurs, but it still results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.82. His 12 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the center position on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 98 percent. He should see relatively low ownership on a slate with lots of superstars available.
Value
Tyson Chandler is currently questionable for today’s contest, and, if he were unable to suit up, Alex Len would likely enter the starting lineup. He played just 23.5 minutes in Chandler’s stead on Thursday, but the Suns ended up losing that game by 28 points. He was still able to exceed salary-based expectations in that limited playing time, and he could see more minutes today if the game stays competitive.
Fast Break
Ante Zizic played just six minutes in the Cavs’ last game, but that was against a Portland team that played a lot of small lineups. He could see more minutes today against a Bulls team that typically plays a traditional center. Zizic has averaged 1.22 fantasy points per minute over the past month and is priced at just $3,600 on FanDuel.
Nerlens Noel features one of the largest pricing discrepancies of the day, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99 percent on DraftKings. He played 27 minutes in his most recent contest and has averaged 1.08 fantasy points per minute, which makes him appealing at just $3,800. He likely won’t play that much today – their last game went into overtime – but he has a fantastic Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.73 against the Brooklyn Nets.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Photo credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports
