Let’s do this.
Brooklyn Nets at Toronto Raptors (-12)
Implied Total: 98.8 – 110.8, O/U: 208.5
We’ve seen the toll Toronto’s backcourt has on opposing guards – the Raptors have allowed a bottom-three rate of DraftKings points to point guards over their last 10 games – but the opposite can be said for Brooklyn, who’s allowed the most in their last five performances. And, though a blowout is slightly worrisome for Kyle Lowry in cash, he remains an elite option no matter: along with the most Pro Trends among point guards, he’s exceeded expectations by +13.18 points in his last six games. Jonas Valanciunas is considered the option for tournaments as, in averaging 32.75 DraftKings points in back-to-back outings, he includes a Bargain Rating of 97%.
Brook Lopez (along with half of their team) sat out merely for rest in their last game, which means all will likely suit-up tonight. Though that limits Thomas Robinson and Willie Reed’s value as a whole, Brook Lopez is once again considered an elite value at DraftKings where his 12 Pro Trends also include a Bargain Rating of 98% — Toronto has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.6 allowed to centers of his salary.
San Antonio Spurs (-9) at Minnesota Timberwolves
Implied Total: 109 – 98.5, O/U: 206.5
Let’s take a moment to bask at Kawhi Leonard’s last 10 games:
(Ed note: widget above is interactive; check them out here.)
While Leonard is an elite option no matter the site, note LaMarcus Aldridge’s Bargain Rating of 90% at DraftKings – he’s the highest-rated power forward in our Phan Model for that very reason. Aldridge has also averaged a team-high usage rate of 26.4% in 15 games without Tim Duncan (out) this season. In tournaments, feel free to swing for the fences with Patty Mills as Minnesota has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.08 allowed to point guards of his salary – Mills has averaged the third-most minutes for San Antonio in five games without Tony Parker (out) this season.
Without Duncan, I’m less worried about Karl-Anthony Towns being limited in the paint; not so much in cash, maybe, but his projected floor of 23.1 (highest among centers) has certainly become a strong option in tournaments. With Danny Green destined to log heavy minutes without Manu Ginobili (out), I’d additionally isolate exposure towards Zach LaVine at FanDuel where he has a Bargain Rating of 90%.
New York Knicks at Denver Nuggets (-2.5)
Implied Total: 102 – 104.5, O/U: 206.5
Much is made of Mike Malone’s rotations (Axel Toupane, anyone?), but a slight consistency has undoubtedly reared its head since the loss of Danilo Gallinari. For starters, Emmanuel Mudiay has essentially won the war at point guard, averaging 34.8 minutes over his last four games; compare to that of D.J. Augustin, who’s logged 21.5 in that span. He’s also been absolutely destructive in that time, averaging 39.2 DraftKings points on a usage of 26.1% (all considered team highs). Meanwhile, Gary Harris (39.8 minutes) and Will Barton (30.5) have been the only other guards to be used for 30-plus minutes. And, though only playing +0.2 more minutes than JaKarr Sampson in that period, Nikola Jokic has averaged an additional +18.9 DraftKings points than the latter. Mudiay remains a strong cash play at FanDuel where he has a Bargain Rating of 90%, while Barton is considered more of a tournament play given his median Projected Plus/Minus of +0.5. Kenneth Faried qualifies as “fringe-cash” despite his most recent performance of 57 DraftKings points – note he’s scored at least 33.5 DraftKings points in five of his last six performances.
Head coach Kurt Rambis said the final decision on Kristaps Porzingis (probable) will come from the team’s medical staff, while Porzingis himself said he would play. Given that he’ll more than likely suit-up, Lance Thomas and Derrick Williams – 23.7 and 19.3 minutes without Porzingis in their last game – are stricken to tournaments. Carmelo Anthony remains a strong cash option among small forwards at FanDuel due to his Bargain Rating of 93%. His projected floor is also +0.3 points higher than that of Kawhi Leonard’s. Other than that, only Robin Lopez remains a true-GPP play as the Nuggets have an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.08 allowed to centers of his price-point (at FanDuel).
Atlanta Hawks at Utah Jazz (-1.5)
Implied Total: 94.8 – 96.3, O/U: 191
The Hawks and Jazz are implied to score the fewest and next-fewest points of this slate. With a total -15.5 points lower than the next closest, I can’t imagine using any cash options involved here. For tournaments, however, it’s nearly a lock that winning lineups will involve at least two or three players involved. That begins with Gordon Hayward – at least 38.25 DraftKings points in three of his last five performances – and Rudy Gobert: Atlanta has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.3 allowed to centers of his salary. Kent Bazemore is also an option at FanDuel where he includes a Bargain Rating of 90%.
Washington Wizards at Portland Trailblazers (-5.5)
Implied Total: 104.5 – 110, O/U: 214.5
Not only does this matchup include the highest total of the evening, but it’s also risen +4 points since initially opening. Options, however, depend where you play.
John Wall remains cheaper than Damian Lillard at DraftKings, which makes him the slightly better option there. The latter, on the other hand, has a Bargain Rating of 93% at FanDuel (where his Projected Plus/Minus of +5.4 leads his position). Both are considered existential cash options where they hold value.
Markieff Morris has averaged 28 minutes in his last three starts over Nene, but that shies in comparison to the 37.5 he logged when the latter was inactive. His 21.8 DraftKings points in that span is still a viable roster at FanDuel where his salary remains -$400 less. C.J. McCollum remains the only other elite cash option on the opposite side as Washington has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.51 points allowed to off-ball guards of his salary.
Orlando Magic (-3) at Los Angeles Lakers
Implied Total: 107.8 – 104.8, O/U: 212.5
D’Angelo Russell still includes a Bargain Rating of 99% at FanDuel, which makes him a mandatory cash option. Even if Kobe Bryant (’50/50′ at this time) were to play, Jordan Clarkson is also considered a strong option: he produced 35 DraftKings points in 37.1 minutes alongside Bryant in their last game. Though a double-double machine (and at least 33.5 DraftKings points in three of his last four performances), Julius Randle remains more of a tournament play given his projected floor of 10.1 – Markieff Morris and Gorgui Dieng, for example, have higher floors despite their lower cost.
Jason Smith, still implied to score the absolute minimum at both sites, is the value we’re looking for as long as Nikola Vucevic is ruled out – Smith exceeded expectations by +8.49 points against the Warriors. Otherwise, I don’t fear Aaron Gordon’s 15.8 minutes logged against Phoenix (due to early foul troubles) in the slightest – excluding that performance, he’s exceeded expectations in eight of his last nine performances. Both he and Victor Oladipo remain absurdly underpriced at FanDuel, where each have a Bargain Rating of at least 95%. Lock them up in cash and simply walk away.
Good luck!
