The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a four-game slate starting at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Lonzo Ball has exceeded salary-based expectations in six of his past eight games and has increased his fantasy output to 1.09 fantasy points per minute over the past month. He played just under 41 minutes yesterday, and his current minute projection of 36.8 is the top mark among all PGs on today’s slate. He also has one of the top matchups of the day against the Golden State Warriors, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.45 on FanDuel. The Lakers’ implied team total of 109.5 is the second-highest mark on the day.
Value
De’Aaron Fox has a tough matchup today with the Miami Heat, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +0.50, but he’s been priced down to just $5,300 on DraftKings, giving him a Bargain Rating of 93 percent. He’s exceeded value in each of his past two games and has averaged 0.91 fantasy points per minute over the past month.
Fast Break
The Celtics are going to be extremely shorthanded today, with Kyrie Irving, Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown, Al Horford, and Daniel Theis all ruled out with various injuries. That should ultimately create some value for the rest of the team, but the current Celtics have played very few minutes with all five of the currently injured players off the floor. Terry Rozier leads the pack with 46 total minutes, and he’s averaged 1.07 fantasy points per minute over that sample size. He’s also been outstanding in the three full games that Irving and Smart have both missed this season, averaging 41.58 DraftKings points per game, but Rozier doesn’t come cheap on today’s slate: He’s been priced up to $7,100 on DraftKings and $7,300 on FanDuel. He also has a tough matchup with the Washington Wizards, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +0.94 on FanDuel.
Eric Bledsoe has busted in three straight games but has been plagued by reduced minutes in blowout situations. He should return to his normal workload, assuming today’s game stays close, and he has one of the best matchups of the day against the Orlando Magic with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.10 on DraftKings. Milwaukee’s implied team total of 108.5 represents an increase of roughly 3.5 points when compared to its seasonal average (105.1).
Shooting Guard
Stud
Bradley Beal has had a tough stretch of games, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of -12.05 over his last three contests, but that might actually work in our favor on FanDuel for today’s matchup with the Celtics. His salary has been reduced by $1,300 over the past month, and his current $8,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90 percent. He has a tough matchup on paper, but it’s possible that the Celtics’ defense will take a few steps back without some of its best defenders in Horford, Smart, and Brown.
Value
The Golden State Warriors are also going to be shorthanded today, with Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, and David West already ruled out and Andre Iguodala currently questionable. That could result in a few extra minutes for Nick Young, who has seen a usage bump of over five percentage points with the currently injured Warriors off the court this season:
He’s currently priced at just $3,200 on DraftKings, giving him a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
Fast Break
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope continues to be a nice source of value for the Lakers with Brandon Ingram sidelined. He’s played at least 36 minutes in seven straight games and has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of the past three. He’s one of the safer options at the position today given his Consistency Rating of 90 percent over the past month on FanDuel.
Small Forward
Stud
Kevin Durant figures to be in for a massive workload today. He’s scored at least 61 DraftKings points in each of his last three games, and his usage rate has been north of 40 percent in each of his past two. Those numbers are inline with his season averages with Curry, Thompson, Green, and West off the floor: No one on the Warriors sees a larger bump to his usage rate or fantasy production in that situation:
He has a juicy matchup with the Lakers today, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.39 on DraftKings. He’s an elite option across the industry today, but he’s almost impossible to avoid on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 99 percent.
Value
It’s important to remember that we’re talking about limited samples today with the Celtics, but Jayson Tatum figures to be one of the biggest beneficiaries from all of their injuries. He’s led the team with a usage rate of 33.7 percent with their current group of injured players off the floor, resulting in an average of 1.12 DraftKings points per minute:
Unlike Rozier, Tatum has remained pretty fair across the industry, and his $5,700 price tag on DraftKings gives him a Bargain Rating of 95 percent. He also has a strong matchup with the Wizards, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.23.
Fast Break
Otto Porter turned in his first truly bad game in a while, scoring just 21.25 DraftKings points in over 35 minutes of playing time. That makes him a solid bounceback candidate today, especially on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 97 percent.
Omri Casspi is another member of the Warriors who could be in line for a larger role today. He’s played well when given a chance this season, averaging 0.92 fantasy points per minute, and he is currently priced at the dead minimum on FanDuel.
Power Forward
Stud
Julius Randle has been a fantastic fantasy option over his last 10 games:
The coaching staff has finally given him the chance to play 33-plus minutes on a routine basis, and he’s averaged a stout 1.24 fantasy points per minute over the past month. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.41 today against the Golden State Warriors, but that might undersell how good this matchup is with Draymond out of the lineup. Kyle Kuzma is also questionable for today’s contest after briefly exiting yesterday’s game with an ankle injury, which could result in an even larger role than usual for Randle. He’s an elite option on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 98 percent and leads all PFs with 12 Pro Trends.
Value
Jordan Bell is expected to return from a three-game absence today, although the number of minutes he ultimately plays is unknown. He’ll likely be at least slightly limited, but that doesn’t mean he can’t still be a value at his current $3,500 salary on FanDuel. He’s averaged 1.15 fantasy points per minute with the current group of injured Warriors off the floor, so he can do a lot of damage in limited playing time. He should also benefit from one of the best matchups of the day against the Lakers, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.81.
Fast Break
Marcus Morris is the last member of the Celtics who figures to see a large bump in usage for today’s contest. He checks in just below Tatum at 33.4 percent, resulting in an average of 1.03 DraftKings points per minute:
You could also opt for Marcus’ brother Markieff Morris on the other side of the same matchup. He’s been solid recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +3.24 over his last 10 games, yet his salary has actually decreased by $400 over that time frame.
Center
Stud
Nikola Vucevic has disappointed in some prime matchups recently, but he’s in another great spot today against the Milwaukee Bucks with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.81 on FanDuel, thanks mostly to the Bucks’ inability to rebound the ball (third-worst team rebound rate). Aaron Gordon remains doubtful to return for the Magic, and Vucevic has seen a team-high usage bump of 3.8 percentage points in games without Gordon this season. This seems like a prime buy-low opportunity assuming that the Magic can keep this game competitive.
Value
The Warriors could lean a little heavier on a traditional lineup today with all the injuries that they’re dealing with. They’re pretty healthy at the center position between JaVale McGee and Zaza Pachulia, and both players have averaged over 1.1 fantasy points per minute over the past month. They have a strong matchup today with the Lakers, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.74 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Both Aron Baynes and Greg Monroe have averaged at least 1.08 points per minute and are in a position to see more minutes today for the Celtics. Monroe probably offers more upside given his offensive skill set, but Baynes is slightly cheaper and has the potential to see more minutes since he should move into the starting lineup.
Good luck!
News Updates
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Photo credit: Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports
