The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a five-game slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook headlines the PG position on today’s slate and has an elite matchup against the Phoenix Suns. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.22 on FanDuel, and the Thunder’s implied team total of 119.75 is the top mark on the slate. Westbrook has absolutely crushed the Suns over the past two seasons, exceeding salary-based expectations by an average of 13.54 points on FanDuel:
That includes a game last week in which Westbrook went for 43 points, 14 rebounds, and eight assists. As long as this game stays close – which is not a guarantee given the 10-point spread – Westbrook looks like one of the safest plays of the day.
Value
Dejounte Murray has seen a noticeable decline in playing time recently, playing just 18.5 and 24 minutes in the Spurs’ past two games. That said, they may to need lean a little heavier on him today against the Golden State Warriors. Pau Gasol has already been ruled out of today’s contest, and Murray has seen a team-high usage increase with Gasol off the floor this season:
Murray has played well when on the floor recently, averaging 1.10 fantasy points per minute over the past month, and his salary has drastically decreased across the industry after his two recent duds. He has a strong Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.66 against the Warriors on DraftKings, where his $5,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93 percent.
Fast Break
Jeff Teague has been a really strong value over his past 10 games on FanDuel:
His production isn’t all that surprising given the injury to Jimmy Butler. No one on the Timberwolves has seen a larger usage bump with Butler off the court this season than Teague, resulting in an average of over 36 FanDuel points per 36 minutes for the PG:
Teague does have a tough matchup against the Celtics, who rank first in the league in defensive efficiency, but he’s still likely underpriced across the industry given his recent production.
Elfrid Payton has seen less than 30 minutes in each of his past two games, but don’t read into that too much: He was ejected on Sunday against Atlanta and spent the fourth quarter on the bench in a blowout against the Heat on Monday. He should return to his normal workload today and has a solid matchup against the Thunder, who have allowed 112.7 points per 100 possessions since losing Andre Roberson 17 games ago.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Devin Booker has been phenomenal recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +5.15 over his past 10 games while averaging 1.21 fantasy points per minute over the past month. He leads all players on today’s slate with 14 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 98 percent. Players with comparable marks in both categories have historically been excellent values:
Booker also benefits from the same strong matchup as Payton, and the Suns’ current implied team total of 109.25 is about 4.5 points higher than their season average of 104.7.
Value
J.J. Redick has seen a sharp decline in playing time recently, and, as a result, his salary has decreased by $600 over the past month on FanDuel. That said, he could see a bump in playing time today if Marco Belinelli is unable to play. He’s averaged 25.2 minutes per game since joining the 76ers, so that would open up a lot of additional playing time on the wing.
Fast Break
The Charlotte Hornets have one of the best matchups of the day against the Brooklyn Nets, resulting in an implied team total of 111.5. Nicolas Batum has been on fire of late, scoring at least 30.5 FanDuel points in nine straight games, and he remains affordable at $7,300 on FanDuel. He could also see some additional ball-handling responsibilities today with backup PG Michael Carter-Williams ruled out with an injury.
Andrew Wiggins has not seen the bump in production that most people expected after the injury to Butler, but he has provided a solid floor recently. He’s scored at least 30.5 FanDuel points in four straight games, which would be more than enough production at his current $6,200 salary on FanDuel. Unfortunately, he does have one of the toughest matchups of the day against the Celtics, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.89.
Small Forward
Studs
Kevin Durant is the top-priced SF on today’s slate but has a difficult matchup against the Spurs. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.68, and the Spurs have historically been one of the few teams capable of limiting Durant’s production:
That said, the majority of those contests have come against Kawhi Leonard, who will obviously not play today. The Spurs defense also has not been quite as good this season with Leonard off the floor, allowing 106.9 points per 100 possessions, and the Warriors’ implied team total of 116 points is right in line with their season average. Durant will still likely see reduced ownership in this matchup, which makes him appealing for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). He’s especially intriguing on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
Most people paying up at the position will likely flock to Paul George instead. George has averaged only 1.4 fewer fantasy points per game than Durant over the past month but costs nearly $1,000 less on FanDuel. He has an elite matchup against the Suns, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.66.
Value
Rudy Gay is another member of the Spurs who could see increased offensive responsibilities with Gasol sidelined. He’s in solid recent form, averaging 1.1 fantasy points per minute over the past month, and his $4,300 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 99 percent.
Fast Break
The Suns have a pair of intriguing SFs in T.J. Warren and Josh Jackson. Warren seems like the safer option of the two given the amount of minutes he’s played recently, seeing at least 41.5 in three straight games before Monday’s blowout. His salary has also decreased by $500 over the past month on FanDuel, where he leads all SFs with 13 Pro Trends. Jackson has seen an even larger salary decrease over that time frame ($1,000), and he’s been the more productive player on a per-minute basis (1.1 fantasy points per minute). He might be the better value of the two given his current Bargain Rating of 93 percent.
The Heat are getting closer to full strength, with Tyler Johnson rejoining the rotation on Monday and Wayne Ellington expected to rejoin the team today. That said, Josh Richardson should still have a very solid role in the offense, and his salary has decreased by $1,000 on DraftKings since the start of the week. His current $5,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93 percent, and the Heat are in the top pace-up spot of the day against the Philadelphia 76ers.
Power Forward
Studs
Ben Simmons had it all working in the 76ers’ last game, scoring 44.1 FanDuel points while falling just two rebounds shy of a triple-double. However, things shouldn’t come quite as easy for him on today’s slate. He has one of the tougher matchups of the day against the Miami Heat, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +0.07 on FanDuel, and the 76ers’ implied team total of 103.75 is the lowest mark on the slate. He’s tough to trust on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of just six percent.
LaMarcus Aldridge has been dreadful recently, scoring just 33.7 fantasy points in his past two games combined. That said, his salary has decreased by $600 on FanDuel over the past month, which could make him an intriguing buy-low candidate with Gasol out of the lineup. He has historically had mixed results against the Warriors, but he did score 38 FanDuel points in just 29.5 minutes in their last meeting. That’ll play at $8,200 on FanDuel and $7,700 on DraftKings.
Value
Kelly Olynyk has averaged 1.05 fantasy points per minute over the past month, which is very solid for a player priced at just $4,600 on FanDuel. He also has a nice matchup today against the 76ers, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.36.
Fast Break
Dario Saric has been extremely reliable over the past month on DraftKings, posting a perfect 100 percent Consistency Rating. He’s averaged 1.01 fantasy points per minute over that time frame, yet his salary has actually decreased by $200. He could see some additional run today if Belinelli is unable to suit up, but he should have a shot at returning value at his current salary regardless of Philly’s injury situation.
Draymond Green has an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.98 today against the Spurs, but he might just be too cheap at his current salary. He’s posted a Consistency Rating of 87 percent over the past month, yet his price tag has actually decreased by $700 on FanDuel over that time frame. He’s historically been a solid value with a comparable price tag over the past two seasons:
Center
Stud
Karl-Anthony Towns deserves strong consideration as the top overall play of the day on DraftKings. The Timberwolves haven’t played since last Friday, which means they’ve had a whopping six days of rest heading into tonight’s contest against the Celtics. Towns has historically been a really strong option when given at least three days off prior to a game:
The Celtics have been somewhat weak against opposing centers this season despite their elite overall defensive numbers, giving Towns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.82 on DraftKings. Towns is also a bit priced down at the moment after getting ejected against the Jazz in his last matchup, and his $9,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98 percent.
Value
The center position is thin on value today, but one player who could be worth some consideration is Jarrett Allen. His minutes have been trending down since the return of Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, but he could see a few additional minutes today against the Charlotte Hornets. He’s the only traditional center currently in their rotation, and the Hornets have a lot of size between Dwight Howard, Cody Zeller, Frank Kaminsky, and Willy Hernangomez. He’s averaged 0.98 fantasy points per minute over the past month, so he could smash at $4,900 on FanDuel and $4,600 on DraftKings if he sees some extended run.
Fast Break
Hassan Whiteside is never a safe play, but he has upside at his current $7,000 salary on FanDuel. He’s averaged 1.36 fantasy points per minute over the past month and could see a few additional minutes today to try and combat Joel Embiid. He’s scored at least 38.5 FanDuel points in each of his past two matchups against Philly, and both of those matchups have come within the past month.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Photo credit: Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports
