The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday’s main slate differs depending on site: DraftKings features a seven-game slate starting at 7:00 pm ET, while FanDuel features a six-game slate starting at 8:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Lonzo Ball has started to show the talent that made him the No. 2 pick on a more consistent basis. He’s posted an average of 1.22 fantasy points per minute over the past month and has posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.13 on DraftKings since returning from injury. He has a fantastic matchup today against the Orlando Magic, who have been one of the worst teams in the league all season against opposing PGs. Ball has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.06 on DraftKings, and the Lakers’ implied team total of 116.75 is tied for the top mark on the slate. He’s one also one of the top values of the day at the PG position on DraftKings, where his $7,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
Value
Rajon Rondo is in an interesting spot today against the Sacramento Kings. On the one hand, he is almost undoubtedly underpriced across the industry given his current role with the Pelicans. He has played at least 29.5 minutes in five straight games and has averaged 1.13 fantasy points per minute over the past month. On the other hand, the Kings have been an extremely tough matchup for PGs this season. They’re currently tied for 27th in pace, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.65 for Rondo on FanDuel. Rondo might be best-suited today on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 86 percent.
Fast Break
Isaiah Thomas benefits from the same matchup as Lonzo, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.09. He’s been almost as good recently on a per-minute basis, averaging 1.06 fantasy points per minute, and he’s also a slightly better value on DraftKings where he has a Bargain Rating of 95 percent.
De’Aaron Fox appears to be in one of the best spots of the day against the New Orleans Pelicans. He benefits from both an awesome Opponent Plus/Minus (+5.07 on FanDuel) and the top pace differential (paceD) of the day (+5.3). The Kings’ implied team total of 109.5 also represents an increase of over 10 points when compared to their seasonal average (99.2).
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden leads the way at the SG position on today’s slate and has been one of the most reliable options in NBA DFS over the past month. He’s posted a Consistency Rating of 100 percent on FanDuel while averaging 1.53 fantasy points per minute, yet his salary has actually decreased by $400 over that time frame. In theory, today’s matchup with the Bucks doesn’t appear to be a great spot for him. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +1.06 on FanDuel, and the Rockets’ implied team total of 111 points is approximately three points lower than their seasonal average (114.1). They’re also on the road for the second leg of a back-to-back, and that is a situation that has somewhat plagued Harden over the past two seasons:
Even so, Milwaukee’s defensive numbers have fallen off a cliff recently, as the Bucks have allowed 113.1 points per 100 possessions over their past 10 games. It’s possible that Harden could be a bit overlooked on a slate loaded with superstars, which only increases his appeal for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Value
Cleveland’s new-look roster has played nine games together at this point, and at least on defense the current Cavs don’t appear to be much different than the old Cavs. They’ve allowed 110.7 points per 100 possessions, which is only marginally better than the 112.4 they allowed over their first 54 games. Denver scored 126 points against this team last Saturday, and they get to face them once again today. Gary Harris scored 45.5 DraftKings points in that matchup, and his current $6,300 salary on DraftKings gives him a Bargain Rating of 97 percent. There’s no reason to believe he can’t have similar results today: He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.57, and the Nuggets’ implied team total of 116.75 is tied for the top mark on the slate.
Fast Break
Brandon Ingram remains out for the Lakers, and no one has been a bigger beneficiary in his absence than Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +12.2 on DraftKings in five games without Ingram this season:
He’s also been playing way more than 36 minutes recently, hitting the 41-minute threshold in each of his past two games. It’s going to be tough to avoid him on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 99 percent.
Bogdan Bogdanovic is one of the few SGs who are a better value today on FanDuel, evidenced by a Bargain Rating of 97 percent. He also appears to be in an excellent spot against the Pelicans — he has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.16 — and he has posted an average Plus/Minus of +3.59 over the past 10 games.
Small Forward
Studs
Today’s slate features two elite SFs in LeBron James and Giannis Antetokounmpo. Both players are much stronger values today on DraftKings, where each has a Bargain Rating of 98 percent.
Let’s start with LeBron. He’s been fantastic since the Cavs overhauled their roster, averaging a Plus/Minus of +4.58 on DraftKings over his past 10 games while averaging 1.64 fantasy points per minute. The game between the Cavs and Nuggets should be one of the highest scoring of the day, and the current over/under of 231 points ranks first on the slate. LeBron’s 13 Pro Trends on DraftKings is tied for the most on the day, and he’s historically been an excellent value with a comparable number:
Giannis has seen a decline in his per-minute efficiency recently but has made up for it with sheer volume. He’s played at least 37 minutes in seven of his past eight games, and only KCP is projected to see more minutes than Giannis on today’s slate in our NBA Models. He doesn’t offer the same safety as LeBron, but he should come at lower ownership.
Value
Reggie Bullock has been a nice source of value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +3.78 on FanDuel over his past six games. He’s played at least 29 minutes in four of his past five games and has averaged 0.73 fantasy points per minute over the past month. He does have a difficult matchup today against the Toronto Raptors, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +0.08, but he seems underpriced on FanDuel at just $4,700.
Fast Break
Today seems like a good day for value at the SF position. Both PJ Tucker and CJ Miles seem likely to have expanded roles for their respective teams. Tucker has started each of the past two games at PF for the injured Ryan Anderson, and he’s the safer bet to see around 30 minutes. Miles has been better on a per-minute basis, averaging 0.86 fantasy points per minute over the past month.
Trevor Ariza has scored at least 31.6 FanDuel points in back-to-back games and is another member of the Rockets who should benefit from the absence of Anderson. So far this season, Ariza has averaged 27.37 DraftKings points per 36 minutes with Anderson off the court, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +4.30.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis turned in the prototypical Davis stat line last night: 41 points, 13 rebounds, one injury scare. He’s had as dominant of a stretch as we’ve seen in NBA DFS since DeMarcus Cousins went down with his injury, posting a ridiculous average Plus/Minus of +18.20 on FanDuel over his past nine games. That includes at least 40 real points in five of those games, and only the elite defense of the Spurs has been able to keep him from exceeding salary-based expectations over that time frame.
Davis has an elite matchup today against the Sacramento Kings, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.75 on DraftKings. Still, there are two questions with Davis on today’s slate. The first is his salary. While he’s affordable at $11,400 on DraftKings, giving him a Bargain Rating of 99 percent, on FanDuel he’s been priced up to $13,000. No one — including Russell Westbrook and James Harden — has been consistently able to pay off a price tag of $13,000 or more:
This game is also on the road for the second leg of a back-to-back, and Davis has historically failed to return value in those situations:
Fading Davis right now is obviously playing with fire, but there are viable reasons at least to consider it on FanDuel.
Value
Kyle Kuzma has entered the starting lineup for the Lakers in place of Brandon Ingram and has exceeded salary-based expectations in four straight games. He played nearly 38 minutes in his last game and has averaged 0.99 fantasy points per minute over the past month. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.16 on FanDuel, and his $6,100 salary results in a Bargain Rating of 75 percent.
Fast Break
Paul Millsap has been fantastic since returning from injury, exceeding salary-based expectations in all four games. He’s in an elite spot today against the Cavaliers, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.03, and he has a Bargain Rating of 95 percent on DraftKings. This is the second leg of a back-to-back for the Nuggets, but Millsap didn’t see any decrease in playing time on the back-to-back last week.
Jabari Parker has averaged 0.97 fantasy points per minute since returning from injury and is coming off a game where he saw 24 minutes of playing time. He could potentially take another step forward in that department today, but even if he doesn’t he seems underpriced on DraftKings at $4,700.
Center
Stud
Rudy Gobert is available only on the DraftKings main slate, which is fortunate since that’s where he has a Bargain Rating of 95 percent. He’s been a phenomenal value recently, scoring at least 47 DraftKings points in each of his past three games. He has a great matchup with the Pacers, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.69.
Value
Trying to predict what the Kings will do these days is almost impossible. The only thing we know for sure is that Willie Cauley-Stein will not play with a back injury, but the rest of their big-man rotation is in flux. Skal Labissiere is currently questionable with a knee injury, while Zach Randolph rested in the last contest. Kosta Koufos has started each of the last two games for WCS, and he appears to be in a nice spot if he’s not rested today. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.97 on FanDuel and has scored at least 21.1 FanDuel points in each of his past three games. He should be a popular value option on a slate loaded with high-priced players.
Fast Break
Clint Capela was a major bust yesterday, but he’s in an excellent bounceback spot today against the Bucks. They’ve been one of the weakest teams all year against opposing centers, thanks in part to the third-worst rebound rate in the league. Capela has an exploitable Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.58 on DraftKings.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Photo credit: Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports
