The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday brings a seven-game main slate at 7 pm ET. Let’s dive in.
Point Guard
Stud
There are only two PGs priced above $7,700 today in Kyrie Irving and Damian Lillard. Both busted in their last game but seem to be in solid bounce-back spots on Monday. Kyrie faces a tanking Chicago team that ranks 25th in defensive efficiency, allowing 108.4 points per 100 possessions on the year. After a tough go against the Rockets Saturday — he shot just 6-of-17 from the field and finished with only 18 real points — he could be motivated to get back on track. Lillard is in an interesting spot. On the one hand, he’s facing a Lakers squad that ranks first in pace this season, and his +4.3 pace differential is quite significant. On the other hand, the Lakers aren’t bad defensively, and they’re definitely better with Lonzo Ball back. Per Cleaning the Glass, opponents post an effective field goal rate 2.2 percent worse with Lonzo on the floor, and they’re -7.6 points/100 worse on offense overall. Lillard has upside given the paceD, but this isn’t a cake matchup.
Value
In nine games with the Suns, Elfrid Payton is averaging 16.4 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 8.2 assists per game. He’s notched two triple-doubles during that short span, including an 11-10-14 yesterday against the Hawks in just 29.3 minutes. He doesn’t have quite as easy a matchup today against the Heat, but it’s hard to argue with that production: He’s averaging a team-high 1.1 FanDuel points per minute and about 40 per 36 minutes. That’ll certainly play given his current role, and he gets the Heat in Miami, where they’ve been worse than on the road this season, ranking 22nd with a -0.6 net rating.
Fast Break
Speaking of Lonzo: The dude has been crushing since returning from an MCL injury:
His ability to fill up the peripheral stats — especially his penchant for steals — is especially valuable given FanDuel’s scoring changes this year. He doesn’t have the easiest matchup against the Blazers, but his ceiling is enticing in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Update: Kyrie Irving has been ruled out tonight vs. the Bulls. The sample with him out is a mixed bag, as Marcus Smart was out for the run Terry Rozier had in the recent games. Overall, the Celtics are incredibly poor without Kyrie, averaging just 104.9 points/100. The matchup is intriguing, although Boston lost by 32 to the Bulls earlier this year sans Irving. Both Smart and Rozier will likely be popular options given their sub-$5,000 price tags on FanDuel, although there’s underrated downside with both and the team overall.
Shooting Guard
Stud
There are three high-priced options on today’s slate: Victor Oladipo, Devin Booker, and Donovan Mitchell. All three are projected for 30-plus minutes and a 30-plus usage rate, which are superb marks, but they’ve been very different with their production of late. Here are their FanDuel points per minute over the past year and past month:
- Oladipo: 1.24 FP/min over past year, 1.48 FP/min over past month
- Booker: 1.10 FP/min over past year, 1.22 FP/min over past month
- Mitchell: 0.98 FP/min over past year, 0.93 FP/min over past month
Mitchell clearly has the best matchup (more on him below), but it’s hard to fade Booker given his recent play:
He leads all three in projected minutes, projected usage rate, Pro Trends, and Bargain Rating. He’s pricey, but $8,200 still is a bargain for him at the moment.
Value
Reggie Bullock has played massive minutes of late and has surprised with a fairly high usage rate. He’s taken at least 10 field goal attempts in each of his past 10 games, including 14 and 21 over his past two. He’s been a bit cold from the 3-point line of late, and still he has been a good fantasy asset, averaging a +3.22 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 60 percent Consistency over his past 10. He’s in a great spot against a Cleveland team that hasn’t gotten much better since the trade deadline and still ranks 28th in efficiency, allowing 109.8 points/100 on the year. James Ennis has the same matchup data and is only $3,400 on DraftKings; he’s certainly a worthy GPP dart throw as well.
Fast Break
Let’s not forget about Mitchell: He hasn’t really flashed a huge ceiling of late, but it’s possible he’s been a tad unlucky. He’s been poor from the 3-point line over his past three outings, hitting just 6-of-25 shots. Today he gets an Orlando Magic team that ranks 20th in 3-point percentage allowed this season. Further, the Magic have been perhaps the worst team in the NBA in defending lead guards, evidenced by Mitchell’s massive +5.07 Opponent Plus/Minus on FanDuel, where his cheap $7,900 salary comes with an 86 percent Bargain Rating. (Ricky Rubio‘s +4.86 mark isn’t bad, either). This is a solid pace-up spot for the Jazz, who currently sit with 60 percent odds to make the playoffs, per FiveThirtyEight. He’ll be the lowest-owned of the three studs, and there’s absolutely a scenario in which he could outproduce the others.
In two games this year without Tyler Johnson and Wayne Ellington, Dwyane Wade has led the Heat with a 32.1 percent usage rate. He gets the Suns today.
Small Forward
Stud
There’s a clear line of demarcation with small forwards: Brandon Ingram is the third-highest priced option at $6,900, with Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,300) and LeBron James ($12,500) sitting way above him. Giannis put up his best game in a while last night, going for a 35-9-7 line against a terrific Philly defense. He’s played 41.5 and 43.2 minutes over his past two contests, which gives him a safe floor on a nightly basis. Still, he’s on the second leg of a road back-to-back, and it’s very difficult to fade this current version of LeBron. The guy has been phenomenal since the trades:
He’s averaged a ridiculous 1.61 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s currently projected to play the most minutes of any player on the slate. He’s worth paying up for, although he is a much better value at $11,700 on DraftKings, where he comes with a beautiful 95 percent Bargain Rating.
Value
T.J. Warren hasn’t been particularly efficient of late, averaging just 0.86 DraftKings points per minute over the past month compared to 0.94 over the past year. But that doesn’t really matter when you’re playing this amount of minutes:
He’s hit value in four of his past five games, and he is coming off a hot one yesterday during which he put up 35 real points against the Hawks. Today’s matchup is more difficult against the Heat, but he’s still only $6,100 on DraftKings. He leads all SFs there with a +4.44 Projected Plus/Minus and should be a fairly easy cash-game option.
Fast Break
In the two games sans Johnson and Ellington this year, Josh Richardson has led the Heat with 35.5 minutes per game. Justise Winslow is second only to Bam Adebayo in that sample in minutes differential; those guys got 5.1 and 8.8 more minutes in those affairs than in other games this year. Johnson and Ellington are questionable, and, given the matchup vs. the Suns, their absence would lead to a lot of value up and down the Miami roster. Definitely monitor this situation leading up to lock.
Another situation to monitor: Brandon Ingram is questionable to play with a hip injury. He missed Saturday’s game but has been a nice fantasy asset of late, averaging a +5.09 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 70 percent Consistency Rating over his past 10 games.
One more shoutout: David Nwaba has been outstanding for the Bulls lately, and he’s gone for 30-plus minutes in five straight games. He does well against bad rebounding teams typically, and Boston is below-average on both the offensive and defensive glass.
Power Forward
Stud
The three-highest priced PF options are LaMarcus Aldridge ($8,900), Blake Griffin ($8,000), and Julius Randle ($7,500). The former is questionable to suit up with a sprained ankle, so let’s talk about the other two. Blake has been disappointing with the Pistons but has bounced back over his past two games, going for 43.8 and 38.5 FanDuel points. He’s in a good spot to continue his bounce-back campaign against an atrocious Cavs defense. Still, how do you fade Randle right now? The Lakers are finally featuring him, especially at the center position, and he’s responded with lots of fantasy points:
He is too cheap at $7,500 on FanDuel and has a winnable matchup against Portland, evidenced by his solid +2.46 Opponent Plus/Minus. He’ll continue to be one of the chalkiest options on the board, especially if Ingram is ruled out again.
Value
In eight games with the Cavaliers, Larry Nance Jr. has averaged 21.9 minutes and 25.13 DraftKings points per game. Those aren’t exciting numbers, but his per-minute data is really nice: He’s averaging 1.15 fantasy points per minute. Tristan Thompson is due to miss multiple games with a sprained ankle, and Nance is the frontrunner to start for him and see an expanded role. Nance and Thompson have a -0.71 correlation value, so this could be a huge game for Nance. He’s especially intriguing at $5,300 on DraftKings, where he comes with an 86 percent Bargain Rating and +3.04 Opponent Plus/Minus.
Fast Break
The Lakers have played just one game without Ingram since the Nance-Jordan Clarkson trade, and here’s how the minutes and usage rates shook out:
If Kyle Kuzma gets the starting nod again, he’s intriguing at $5,400.
Center
Studs
Andre Drummond is the highest-priced option at $9,500 on DraftKings, and he’s coming off a 58.5-point fantasy outing against the Heat. He’s always a threat for a 20-20 game, especially in this matchup. In his last meeting against the Cavs, he finished with 21 points, 22 rebounds, seven assists, three steals, and three blocks — good for 71.0 DraftKings points. With Tristan out, the Cavs will likely play extra small with the 6’8″ Nance at center. He could absolutely smash today.
Value
Bobby Portis is center-eligible on DraftKings and should be a popular option. He got 34 minutes in his last game and could see a similar workload moving forward. He’s a per-minute machine, averaging 1.18 DraftKings points per minute on the year, and he has no problem dominating usage. He has a tough matchup against an excellent Celtics defense, but he’s intriguing at only $6,200 on DraftKings, especially with the lack of great value options at the position on this slate.
Fast Break
Rudy Gobert likely won’t be highly owned thanks to his exorbitant price tag of $9,200 — just $900 cheaper than Drummond. If that’s the case, it could be a nice spot to buy him in GPPs: He’s gone for 50.4 and 60.7 FanDuel points over his past two games and is clearly zoned in as the Jazz battle for a playoff spot. He has an excellent matchup against a terrible Orlando team that ranks 27th in defensive efficiency and 29th in rebound rate.
Speaking of good matchups: You often want to target centers against the Milwaukee Bucks. The lucky player today is Myles Turner, who leads all centers with a +4.81 Opponent Plus/Minus on FanDuel. At just $6,400 at likely low ownership, that’ll play.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Photo credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports
