The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a two-game main slate starting at 8:00 p.m. ET. Instead of the usual positional breakdown, let’s go game-by-game instead.
Houston Rockets (-4.5) @ Denver Nuggets – 225.5 total
The Rockets lead the slate with an implied team total of 115 points and appear to be in a wonderful spot today. The Nuggets have posted a defensive efficiency of 112.2 over the past 15 games and the Rockets have averaged 127.5 points against Denver in their first two meetings this season.
The Rockets start with James Harden, who has averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.43 on DraftKings over his past 10 games. But his minutes have actually been on the decline recently: Harden has only cracked the 36-minute mark once in his past eight games. Even if Eric Gordon misses today’s contest – he’s currently questionable with an illness – it doesn’t seem likely that Harden will see a huge boost in playing time. Harden has made up for his reduced minutes by averaging a ridiculous 1.66 fantasy points per minute over the past month, and his current $11,000 salary on DraftKings is as low as it’s been since the start of the season.
Clint Capela destroyed the Nuggets in their last meeting, scoring 23 points and ripping down 25 rebounds in just 28.5 minutes. He’s been even better than Harden recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +5.54 over his past 10 games, and he has a solid Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.32 tonight. Capela is a better value today on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
The top matchup on the Rockets belongs to Chris Paul. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.31, which leads all PGs on today’s slate. He’s been dreadful recently, averaging a Plus/Minus of -5.80 over his past 10 games, but Paul’s salary has decreased by $500 on DraftKings and $700 on FanDuel over that time frame. This could be a nice opportunity to buy low on him.
Outside of the Rockets’ “Big Three,” no one else really jumps off the page. None of their role players cracked the 30-minute mark in their most recent game, with PJ Tucker coming the closest at 28.5. However, Trevor Ariza and Ryan Anderson could be worth some exposure on FanDuel, where each has a Bargain Rating of at least 90 percent.
The Nuggets are in an interesting spot today. On one hand, this is a slight pace up spot for them, with the Rockets currently ranking 10th in the league in pace. On the other hand, the Rockets also rank in the top 10 in defensive efficiency. Ultimately, it seems like the pace may be more important: Denver’s current implied team total of 110.5 represents an increase of nearly 2.5 points when compared to its season average (108.1).
Nikola Jokic has been on an absolute tear recently, posting a Plus/Minus of at least +10.91 in each of his past three games on FanDuel. That said, he doesn’t have a great history against the Rockets:
That includes two meetings from earlier this season, where he was limited to an average of 36.8 fantasy points. Still, it’s going to be tough to avoid him on FanDuel, where he leads all players with 13 Pro Trends and has a Bargain Rating of 97 percent.
Outside of Jokic, the rest of the Nuggets appear to be better values on DraftKings. Jamal Murray, Wilson Chandler, and Will Barton all have Bargain Ratings of at least 95 percent, which makes them extremely appealing on today’s slate. Barton has the best individual matchup of the group, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.55. He was limited to “just” 32 minutes in his most recent game (illness), and that seems like a conservative projection for him in today’s matchup. Murray has the toughest individual matchup against CP3, but he’s averaged a nice 0.93 fantasy points per minute over the past month. Murray has a lot of upside at $5,900 given his shooting ability. Finally, Chandler is a bit of a wild card. He’s done absolutely nothing for the majority of the season before exploding for at least 37.75 DraftKings points in three of his past four games. He could be due for some regression, but he remains pretty affordable at $5,200 and has been a strong fantasy producer in the past.
Don’t forget about Gary Harris, either. He’s priced down on both sites at the moment — $6,000 on FanDuel, $5,600 on DraftKings – and has been an extremely consistent producer over the past year. He also has the best individual matchup on the team (+4.09 Opponent Plus/Minus on DraftKings).
Philadelphia 76ers @ Washington Wizards (-2) – 213.5 total
Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons have both been in excellent form recently. Embiid has been battling a sore ankle, but that hasn’t stopped him from exceeding salary-based expectations on DraftKings in five of his past six games. He has a solid matchup today, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.75, and leads all players on DraftKings with 12 Pro Trends. He’s a much better there, where he has a Bargain Rating of 97 percent.
Simmons has finally busted out of his rookie slump, posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.14 on FanDuel over his past 10 games. That includes exceeding expectations in six straight prior to seeing just 28.5 minutes in a blowout win against the Magic. His upside at the PF position is unmatched – his ceiling projection is more than 15 points higher than the No. 2 option – which makes him very appealing in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). If Simmons goes off, he’s almost assuredly going to find himself in the winning tournament lineup on FanDuel.
Dario Saric has the best matchup on the team outside of Embiid (+3.22 Opponent Plus/Minus on DraftKings). That said, he’s struggled to return value with the team at full strength this season, seeing his usage decrease of 3.5 percent when sharing the court with Simmons and Embiid, resulting in a decrease of 3.2 fantasy points per 36 minutes:
Robert Covington has been mired in a deep shooting slump but has started to show some signs of life. He made four of nine 3-pointers in his last game and is priced way down at $4,900 on DraftKings. He has tons upside if his jumper starts falling given his ability to pile up defensive statistics.
JJ Redick could be a nice value on FanDuel today, where he has a Bargain Rating of 81 percent. He should see around 30 minutes of playing time and has average 0.81 fantasy points per minute on the season.
TJ McConnell and Marco Belinelli could also be worth some exposure in GPPs. McConnell probably wont see many minutes, but he has shown the ability to pile up fantasy points in a hurry. He’s averaged 0.88 fantasy points per minute on the season. Belinelli is another perimeter shooter to place around Embiid and Simmons, and his real life importance to the 76ers is probably greater than his fantasy importance. However, he could wind up with a larger role than expected if Covington continues to struggle with his jump shot.
The Wizards are slight favorites today at home, but they have a brutal matchup on their hands. The 76ers are third in defensive efficiency this season and have won seven straight games. Given that the Wizards are still without John Wall, they could be in for a tough time.
Much of their offense will fall on the shoulders of Bradley Beal. He’s been a nice value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +3.07 on FanDuel over his past 10 games. Beal has definitely benefitted from the Wall injury, but it’s been more about increased playing time rather than an increase in offensive responsibilities. He’s posted a usage rate above 30 percent just once in his past 11 games but has averaged approximately 38 minutes per game over that time frame. No one on today’s slate is projected to play more minutes in our NBA Models, which provides Beal with a safe floor and significant upside.
The biggest usage bump with Wall off the floor this season actually belongs to Otto Porter: 3.4 percent, which has resulted in him scoring more than 35 fantasy points per 36 minutes:
He’s super intriguing today on DraftKings, where his $6,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97 percent.
Porter isn’t the only member of the Wizards who seems underpriced on DraftKings, with both Tomas Satoransky and Markieff Morris possessing Bargain Ratings of 98 percent. Satoransky stumbled a bit in his last game, but he’s still managed to post an average Plus/Minus of +5.49 over his past 10 games. He’s been a strong per-minute producer recently, averaging 0.99 fantasy points per minute, and he’s eclipsed 31 minutes in each of his past five games. Morris has not been nearly as good, but he still has some appeal at just $5,000. He probably won’t play more than 28 minutes, but that would still give him a chance to return value considering his average of 1.03 fantasy points per minute.
Finally, Kelly Oubre has seen his role increase recently, playing at least 30 minutes in six of his past seven games. If he can return to his early-season average of 0.79 fantasy points per minute, that would give him solid upside at just $4,600.
Good luck!
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Photo credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
