The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a two-game slate starting at 8:00 pm ET. Instead of the usual positional breakdown, let’s go game-by-game instead.
Denver Nuggets @ Milwaukee Bucks (-2.5) – 214 Total
The Nuggets are an intriguing team on today’s slate. On the one hand, the Bucks have been much better since firing Jason Kidd, going 9-2 under interim coach Joe Prunty. They’ve posted a defensive rating of 102 points per 100 possessions over that time frame, which would be the third-best full-season mark in the league. On the other hand, the Bucks continue to have a glaring weakness on the glass, ranking just 29th in team rebound percentage. The Nuggets also present some of the better values of the day on DraftKings.
One of those players is Will Barton, whose $6,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97 percent on DraftKings. Barton has exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his last eight games and has played over 42 minutes in each of his past two. No one on today’s slate is projected for more minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged a solid 0.87 fantasy points per minute over the past month.
Nikola Jokic has one of the best matchups of the day regardless of position, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.80 on DraftKings. It makes since given the Bucks struggles on the glass, and they could be even weaker than usual in that department if John Henson misses his third consecutive game (currently questionable). Jokic has been a dominant force recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +7.28 on DraftKings over his last 10 games.
Gary Harris has not been as good as Barton recently, but he’s historically been a reliable option at the SG position. He’s posted a Consistency Rating of 87 percent over the past year on FanDuel, where his $6,000 salary makes him $1,700 cheaper than Barton. His 10 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position.
What’s gotten into Wilson Chandler recently? He’s posted back-to-back games with at least 37.75 DraftKings points, despite averaging just 0.68 fantasy points per minute on the season. He could be due for some regression, but he’s still appealing on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 99 percent.
Jamal Murray has the toughest individual matchup on the team, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.63 on FanDuel. That said, he still offers substantial upside at one of the weaker positions on the slate.
Finally, don’t forget about Trey Lyles. He’s taken a bit of a backseat to Chandler recently, and that’s dropped his salary to just $4,400 on DraftKings. He’s averaged 1.12 fantasy points per minute over the past month, so he doesn’t need to play much to have a shot at returning value in this matchup.
For Milwaukee, Giannis Antetokounmpo should be extremely popular on a slate that is a bit light on star power. Still, he’s failed to return value in each of his past five games on DraftKings despite having some juicy matchups with the Nets, Knicks, Magic, and Hawks. Today’s matchup with the Nuggets isn’t nearly as friendly, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.23. Some fade consideration could be warranted for guaranteed prize pools, especially given his two percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel.
If Henson is ruled out for today’s contest, Thon Maker would become an appealing value play. He’s played at least 25 minutes in each of his past two games and has averaged 0.8 fantasy points per minute over the past month. He’s super cheap on FanDuel, where his $3,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
Like Giannis, both Eric Bledsoe and Khris Middleton are much better values today on DraftKings. Each player has a Bargain Rating of at least 97 percent. Bledsoe has returned value in five straight games and has the best matchup for Milwaukee, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.72. Middleton is not playing nearly as many minutes under Prunty, but he’s actually been more efficient with 1.06 fantasy points per minute over the past month. Stacking the underpriced Bucks and Nuggets could have some appeal for GPPs on DraftKings, given that this game will likely have lower ownership.
Los Angeles Lakers @ Minnesota Timberwolves (-10) – 226.5 Total
The Lakers as a team seem massively discounted on DraftKings, with six of their key players owning Bargain Ratings of at least 90 percent.
The Timberwolves have also struggled defensively this season, ranking just 26th in defensive efficiency. As long as the Lakers can keep this game close — which is no guarantee — they appear to be in a nice spot.
Isaiah Thomas looked rejuvenated in his first game with the Lakers, scoring 33.25 DraftKings points in just 30.5 minutes. He was on his way to another strong performance yesterday — he had 6.25 fantasy points in his first five minutes — but was ejected after getting into a scuffle with Rajon Rondo. This matchup with the Wolves should be a good one for him, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.75 on DraftKings.
Julius Randle might be the most appealing Laker at the moment. He’s been very good on a per-minute basis all season (1.17 fantasy points per minute), and his playing time has been on the rise since the team traded away Larry Nance Jr. He has played 31.5 and 37 minutes in the past two contests and has a strong Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.48 on today’s slate. His 11 Pro Trends on DraftKings are also tied for the most among today’s players.
Brook Lopez has the best Opponent Plus/Minus on the Lakers for today’s matchup at 4.19. His playing time has been a bit erratic recently, but his salary has decreased to a very reasonable $4,400 on DraftKings. He’s averaged 1.01 fantasy points per minute over the past month, so he shouldn’t need to play much to be a viable option at his current price tag.
Is the nation ready for Kuzmania part two? Kyle Kuzma has crushed in his past three games, posting an average Plus/Minus of +11.69 on DraftKings. He’s another player whose minutes have been up and down all season, but he’s proven he can score the ball at the NBA level.
Brandon Ingram is one of the few Lakers who doesn’t have a Bargain Rating of 90-plus percent on DraftKings, but he’s been playing very well lately. Unfortunately, he’ll likely see the individual defense of Jimmy Butler on today’s slate, which doesn’t bode well for his fantasy prospects. Butler has graded out as one of the best individual wing defenders in the league this season per Defensive Real Plus/Minus (DRPM), and Ingram has an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.86 for today’s contest.
Finally, Josh Hart and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope also deserve consideration at the SG position. Hart has scored at least 30 DraftKings points in five of the past six games, yet he remains reasonably priced at $4,600. KCP, meanwhile, has exceeded value in three straight games and has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.00.
The Timberwolves lead the slate with a massive implied team total of 118.25, which is not that surprising after the Lakers got destroyed last night by the New Orleans Pelicans. The total on this game has already increased by four points, which suggests that sharp bettors are expecting more of the same tonight.
It’s going to be hard to pass on Karl-Anthony Towns tonight after seeing what Anthony Davis did to the Lakers yesterday. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.50 and has unsurprisingly fared well against the Lakers since joining the league.
He’s also thrived in the small sample of games that he’s played with a comparable implied team total, posting a historical Plus/Minus of +7.85 over four contests. Towns is in great recent form, going for at least 53 DraftKings points in three of his last four games.
Towns’ recent dominance has come at the expense of Jimmy Butler. He’s posted a usage rate of less than 20 percent in each of his past two games, resulting in an average of just 31.95 FanDuel points per game. That will likely regress back to his normal rate, but today’s matchup may not be the best spot for that to happen. The Lakers have been surprisingly good against SFs this season, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +0.76 on FanDuel. Still, he is projected for a whopping 39 minutes on today’s slate and has averaged 1.17 fantasy points per minute over the past month. He might be the preferred stud SF on FanDuel (instead of Giannis) given his edge in Bargain Rating (75 percent).
Jeff Teague is the only member of the Timberwolves outside of Towns to have a Bargain Rating above 39 percent on DraftKings. He’s also been really good recently, posting a Plus/Minus of at least +8.19 in three of his past four games. He’s definitely in consideration given his Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.72.
Andrew Wiggins is in the midst of a major swoon at the moment, failing to return value in six of his last seven games.
That said, there are definitely reasons to believe he can bounce back. He played over 40 minutes in his most recent contest but was plagued by shooting just 2-of-14 from the field. If he can get some positive regression with his shooting numbers, he could be a nice value at his current $6,300 salary on FanDuel.
Last but not least, Jamal Crawford could have some sneaky appeal for GPPs. He won’t play many minutes, but he should dominate the ball while he is on the court. He’s posted a usage rate of 33.8 percent or higher in two of his past four games, and that many opportunities in today’s matchup could lead to a big day. He could also help differentiate your lineup on a slate where that will be incredibly difficult to do.
Good luck!
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