The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a 12-game slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Studs
Russell Westbrook returned from injury for the Thunder last night and played 39 minutes in a loss to the Cavs. Billy Donovan stated before the game that Westbrook would not be limited yesterday or today on the second leg of a back-to-back, so expect him to be a full go for tonight’s contest, as well. His matchup with the Grizzlies is an intriguing one. On one hand, the Grizzlies have played at the slowest pace in the league this season, averaging just 96.7 possessions per game. It results in a pace differential (paceD) of -3.1 for Westbrook and the rest of the Thunder players. On the other hand, the slow pace hasn’t really helped them against PGs from a fantasy perspective, as Westbrook has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.35 on DraftKings. He’s also found a lot of success against this team since the start of last season:
Damian Lillard never seems to get mentioned with the elite PGs, and no one notices that more than Damian Lillard. He loves getting the opportunity to prove himself against the leagues’ best, with his favorite matchup coming against Stephen Curry and the Warriors. Lillard has historically torched them when playing in Portland:
He leads all players with 14 Pro Trends on DraftKings.
Value
The Hawks will be without three of their high-usage players for today’s contest in Dennis Schroder, Kent Bazemore, and Ersan Ilyasova, which will open up a lot of value for the rest of the team. Two players who could potentially grab a bigger piece of the offense today are Tyler Dorsey and Malcolm Delaney. Dorsey has been the preferred option of the two recently, playing at least 23 minutes in four of his past five games. Delaney, meanwhile, has been more productive on a per-minute basis, with 0.84 fantasy points per minute over the past month.
Fast Break
De’Aaron Fox has played well of late, exceeding salary-based expectations in seven of his past nine games on FanDuel. He’s seen more playing time since the George Hill trade, playing at least 31 minutes in three straight games, and has averaged 0.86 fantasy points per minute over the past month. His salary on FanDuel ($6,000) hasn’t quite caught up and results in a Bargain Rating of 90 percent. The only issue with Fox today is his matchup against the Houston Rockets. The Kings are the largest underdogs of the day at 14.5 points, and Fox has a brutal individual matchup against Chris Paul.
The Nets have been shorthanded of late, with both Caris LeVert and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson missing the past two games. They will both be out again today, and one of the primary beneficiaries has been Spencer Dinwiddie. He’s played at least 36 minutes in each of those contests, and is averaging 1.01 fantasy points per minute over the past month. He’s a much better value today on DraftKings, where his $6,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98 percent.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden is in play for DFS purposes every time he suits up, but today’s game against the Kings is far from ideal. In addition to being massive favorites, this is also a bit of a pace down spot for the Rockets. The Kings have played at the fifth-slowest pace this season, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.17 for Harden on FanDuel. The Rockets are also playing on the second leg of a back-to-back, which has plagued Harden’s fantasy value this season:
Ricky Rubio will miss his third straight game for the Jazz, which will likely make Donovan Mitchell one of the highest-owned players on the slate. He’s dominated this season with both Rubio and Rodney Hood off the floor:
He also has a dream matchup against the Suns, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.83. He’s going to be really tough to avoid on DraftKings, where his $7,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
Value
Taurean Prince has led the Hawks in usage with Schroder, Bazemore, and Ilyasova off the court this season, resulting in an average of 0.86 fantasy points per minute:
He should also see a nice bump in minutes, which makes him incredibly appealing across the industry.
Fast Break
Bradley Beal has seen all the minutes he can handle since the injury to John Wall, playing more than 40 in two of his past three games. He’s currently projected for 38.3 in our NBA Models, which is the top mark on the slate regardless of position. He can do a lot of damage with that much playing time against the Knicks, who have allowed a disastrous 112.7 points per 100 possessions with Kristaps Porzingis off the floor this season. Beal is a much better value on FanDuel, where his $8,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86 percent.
Small Forward
Stud
SF might be the thinnest position at the top on today’s slate. Paul George remains overpriced with Westbrook’s return, which leaves Kevin Durant as the only true stud worth considering. That said, he hasn’t exactly played like a stud recently, positing an average Plus/Minus of -3.55 on DraftKings over his past 10 games. His salary has decreased by $1,100 during that time frame, and he’s priced at just $9,400 for today’s contest with the Trail Blazers. Durant has historically been a good value play with a comparable salary:
Draymond Green is also questionable for today’s contest, and Durant would get a solid bump if he were to sit out. Durant has seen a usage bump of 2.3 percent with Green off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.46 fantasy points per minute.
Value
Josh Jackson busted in his most recent game against the Warriors, but was plagued by shooting just 4-18 from the field. Despite that hiccup, he’s still posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.31 over his last 10 games and has averaged 0.94 fantasy points per minute over the past month. Jackson has seen a nice boost in playing time with Devin Booker injured, and his current $5,500 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 86 percent. He has a tough matchup against the Jazz (-0.18 Opponent Plus/Minus), but he might be too cheap to pass up.
Royce O’Neale is another member of the Jazz who should see a nice bump in value with Rubio out of the lineup. He’s played 33 and 38 minutes in his past two games and has averaged 0.8 fantasy points per minute over the past month. That kind of production would make him one of the best values of the day at $4,300 on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Fast Break
Michael Beasley gets buckets. He’s averaged 1.11 fantasy points per minute over the past month thanks mostly to his ability to put the ball in the hoop. He’s seen a nice bump in playing time due to the injury to Porzingis, and has returned value in each of his past three games. He remains affordable on FanDuel, where his $6,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 81 percent.
Moe Harkless could be an intriguing punt play on today’s slate. He’s played at least 30 minutes in three of his past five games and could easily approach that threshold again today against the Warriors. He’s priced at the dead minimum on FanDuel.
Power Forward
Stud
Ben Simmons may have finally burst through the rookie wall. He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in five of his past six games and looks more like the player he was at the beginning of the season. He’s been particularly dominant with his defensive statistics, totaling at least three combined steals + blocks in each of those five games. Unfortunately, he doesn’t have a great matchup today with the Miami Heat (-0.49 Opponent Plus/Minus). Simmons is much more intriguing on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 97 percent.
Value
Al-Farouq Aminu is appealing for a lot of the same reasons as Harkless. Today’s game with the Warriors should be played at a fast pace, which could result in more minutes for Aminu and Harkless and fewer minutes for guys like Ed Davis and Jusuf Nurkic. Aminu has averaged 0.85 fantasy points per minute over the past month and has historically been a nice value with a comparable price tag on FanDuel ($4,900):
Fast Break
Jae Crowder has shown some signs of life in Utah. He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his past two games and played 33 minutes in his most recent contest sans Rubio. He could play similar minutes today in an outstanding matchup with the Suns, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.55.
Joel Embiid is questionable once again for today’s contest, although that hasn’t stopped him from playing in each of his past three games. If he were to sit, however, the primary beneficiary would likely be Dario Saric, who has crushed in games without Embiid this season, averaging a Plus/Minus of +11.1:
Center
Studs
Anthony Davis has dominated since the injury to DeMarcus Cousins, failing to hit salary-based expectations in only the most difficult of matchups. Today’s matchup with the Lakers definitely does not qualify as that. Davis has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.22, and the Pelicans’ implied team total of 117.75 is the top mark on today’s slate.
Andre Drummond has been quite possibly the best rebounder in the league this season. He’s pulled down 26.3 percent of all available rebounds when on the court this season, which is the top mark in the league. That does not bode well for the Atlanta Hawks, who have been the fourth-worst rebounding team in the league this season. Drummond has grabbed at least 15 boards in eight straight games, and he’ll have a really good chance to make it nine in a row as long as the Hawks can keep this game competitive.
Value
Tyson Chandler has been ruled out for today’s contest with the Jazz, which should result in a nice boost in value for Alex Len. Len has averaged 1.1 fantasy points per minute with Chandler off the court this season:
He’s priced down across the industry — $4,000 on FanDuel, $4,400 on DraftKings — so he shouldn’t need to play much to have a chance to return value.
Fast Break
Julius Randle has seen nice spike in playing time recently, culminating with 37 minutes in his last game against the Dallas Mavericks. Randle is a strong producer on a per-minute basis, averaging 1.15 fantasy points per minute over the past month, so any potential for increased playing team is appealing for DFS purposes. The Pelicans are also a really nice matchup for opposing centers; hence Randle’s +3.85 Opponent Plus/Minus.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Photo credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
