Let’s get to it.
Phoenix Suns at Miami Heat (-13.5)
Implied Total: 97.8 – 111.3, O/U: 209
It would be nice if Dwyane Wade were possible to squeeze into lineup construction (especially given Phoenix’s Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.8 allowed to off-ball guards), but there are more important battles to fight at other positions. Admittedly, however, while you can easily create cap relief by rostering Joe Johnson – 31.3 minutes since debuting with Miami – as a shooting guard at FanDuel, he’s considered a small forward at DraftKings. That leaves even fewer options to pivot towards in Miami’s backcourt.
Goran Dragic has exceeded expectations by +7.98 points in his last 10 performances, +10.90 in his last seven. Still tagged with an absurd Bargain Rating of 86% at FanDuel, he’s arguably the best cash option among point guards not named Russell Westbrook or Stephen Curry. If only fitting one of the latter two, Dragic, who has a Dud Percentage of 0% in his last 10 games, is certainly viable as a second guard no matter the format.
Even on a slate with DeMarcus Cousins, one could argue there are only two options at center tonight: Alex Len, who has a Bargain Rating of 90% at FanDuel, or Hassan Whiteside, who’s produced three performances of at least 51.3 DraftKings points in his last six games. Excluding his game against Brooklyn in which he came off the bench behind Kris Humphries, Len has averaged 35 DraftKings points over his last four performances. Whiteside is sexier and obviously has a projected ceiling +13.5 points higher, but Len’s Projected Plus/Minus of +11.5 (highest among centers) remains in a more advantageous position as the Heat have an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.35 allowed to centers. And don’t lose sight of Mirza Teletovic in all of this, as the Phoenix power forward (small forward?) still includes a ridiculous Bargain Rating of 99% (on a night in which that value is needed) at FanDuel.
San Antonio Spurs (-8.5) at New Orleans Pelicans
Implied Total: 107.8 – 99.3, O/U: 207
If looking for alternative options to paying up at power forward, LaMarcus Aldridge is practically a steal at DraftKings due to his Bargain Rating of 93%. Along with 12 Pro Trends (tied with Cousins), note Aldridge has scored at least 38 DraftKings points in four of his last six performances, exceeding expectations by +6.95 points in that span. Given the Pelicans Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.91 at his position, Aldridge is a viable option in both cash and tournaments alike.
Kawhi Leonard has produced an Average Plus/Minus of +11.33 in his last seven games. On a night in which many will turn to Kevin Durant (and rightfully so), Leonard is as strong an option in terms of points per salary as his Projected Plus/Minus of +9.4 is 3.5 points greater than Durant’s.
New Orleans’ backcourt remains one of mystery as, in their first game together (with Anthony Davis) since January 21, Jrue Holiday logged 29.7 minutes behind Eric Gordon, who’s averaged 32.9 since returning. With his minutes guaranteed, there are worse options than Gordon despite San Antonio’s Opponent Plus/Minus of -5.87 at his position. Holiday is considered a tournament option – his usage rate of 32.6% without Gordon plummets to 26.6% when the two have both been active. If anything, I would just avoid point-chasing with Norris Cole despite the fact that he’s now exceeded expectations by +14.7 in his last three performances. For starters, he’s averaged only 19.7 DraftKings points in his last 11 games. Also, he’s Norris Cole.
Sacramento Kings at Dallas Mavericks (-7.5)
Implied Total: 106.5 – 114, O/U: 220.5
It might not seem like there are many strong options amongst the Mavericks, but given this smaller slate, Wes Matthews should be considered one of the better plays at shooting guard. Not only does Sacramento have an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.99 allowed to off-ball guards, but Matthews has quietly exceeded expectations by +8.54 points over his last five games. He’s considered even more valuable at FanDuel where he has a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Without Rudy Gay (questionable for tonight) in their last two games, Omri Casspi has averaged 25.2 minutes. He’s produced only 22.25 DraftKings points in that span, but his recent decline in salary — $4,700, down from $4,900 in his last performance — is certainly another way to save cap in this slate. Despite failing to meet expectations by -3.86 points in his last two games without Gay, Darren Collison (featured more without Seth Curry available) has actually logged more minutes than Casspi over that time. Still, given the makeup of point guard, Collison should be reserved for tournaments rather than cash.
Cousins has a projected floor +6.6 points higher than Anthony Davis, but as stated earlier, there’s really no need to roster him in cash (at FanDuel where he’s center eligible, anyways). He’s obviously still a terrific play in tournaments as he’s averaged 52.6 DraftKings points over his last 10 games (and is averaging a line of 33-13-5 against Dallas this season).
Oklahoma City at Golden State Warriors (-7.5)
Implied Total: 110.5 – 118, O/U: 228.5
If curious how the Thunder perform on the second-leg of a road back-to-back, look no further than our Trend of the Day.
For those wanting to expand upon that, however, note Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant have exceeded expectations by +5.45 and +3.13 points when watering that trend down to this particular season.
As for the Warriors, Stephen Curry, though painfully obvious, remains arguably the best option of any player in this matchup, as Oklahoma City has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.37 at his position. At FanDuel where both Curry and Westbrook have an equivalent price, it should be noted that the latter’s floor is +0.2 points higher. There’s no wrong choice in cash as both have produced Dud Percentages of 0% in the last month. And if looking elsewhere in their back court, Klay Thompson, attached with an absurd Bargain Rating of 97% at FanDuel, has scored at least 38.9 FanDuel points in four of his last five performances.
Good luck tonight!
