The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a six-game slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Studs
Both Russell Westbrook and Carmelo Anthony are questionable for today’s matchup against the Lakers with sprained ankles. Anthony was unable to play in the second half of their last game, while Westbrook gutted it out in a big win against the Golden State Warriors. They have a much easier matchup today against the Los Angeles Lakers, so it’s very possible that one or both of them could sit.
That said, if Westbrook is able to go, he’s in a wonderful spot. His 12 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position on DraftKings and he has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.37. The Thunder are also in one of the largest pace-up spots of the day, with their players owning a pace differential (paceD) of +4.4. Finally, if Westbrook can go but Melo can’t, he should be in line for a nice boost in usage. He’s increased his usage rate by 5.2 percent this season with Melo off the court:
This is obviously an important situation to monitor today.
Value
Shelvin Mack has been a nice source of value recently. He’s played at least 22.5 minutes in five straight games, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +9.19. Elfrid Payton was shipped out of town today, so Mack has the potential to play even more today for the Magic. He’s in a great spot against the Atlanta Hawks, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.55. Mack is a much stronger value today on DraftKings, where his $3,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97 percent.
Fast Break
Dennis Smith Jr. has been playing big minutes for the Mavs recently and is in an intriguing spot today against the Warriors. The Mavs are obviously huge underdogs in this contest, but they’re also in the top pace-up spot of the day. Smith has thrived in games with a comparable paceD (+5.4) so far this season:
He’s not the only Mavs guard that’s intriguing on today’s slate. Yogi Ferrell routinely plays 30+ minutes, and his $4,000 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 93 percent. J.J. Barea could also see an increased workload with Harrison Barnes sidelined, and he’s averaged 1.09 fantasy points per minute on the season.
The top matchup of the day at the PG position belongs to Dennis Schroder against the Orlando Magic. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.87 on FanDuel, and the Hawks’ implied team total of 106 points represents a slight increase when compared to their season average (103.8). Schroder has also seen a salary decrease of $1,000 on FanDuel over his last 10 games, which gives him some extra upside in today’s matchup.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Bradley Beal has been lights out since the injury to John Wall, scoring at least 44.9 FanDuel points in four of his last five games. He does have a brutal matchup today with the Celtics, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +0.58 on FanDuel. That game also has the lowest over/under of the day at 206.5 points.
Value
The Lakers will be shorthanded tonight after dealing Jordan Clarkson and Larry Nance Jr. They’ll also still be without Lonzo Ball, which will make them particularly thin in the backcourt. One player who could see a bump in playing time today is Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. He’s been priced down to $4,700 on FanDuel and has averaged 0.81 fantasy points per minute with Clarkson and Ball off the court this season:
Fast Break
C.J. McCollum has been priced down to $6,900 on FanDuel for today’s matchup with the Charlotte Hornets. That’s a pretty intriguing price tag for McCollum, who has historically been a nice value with a comparable salary:
It’s not the greatest matchup for McCollum, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +0.44, but the Blazers’ implied team total of 108.5 points is the fourth highest mark on the slate.
Jaylen Brown is currently questionable for today’s contest but could have some appeal if he does suit up. He’s averaged 0.81 fantasy points per minute over the past month and is currently projected for 33.7 minutes in our NBA Models. That kind of production would make him a decent value at his current $5,600 salary on DraftKings and $5,500 salary on FanDuel.
Small Forward
Stud
The sky is the limit today for Paul George if neither of his star running mates are able to suit up. He’s increased his usage rate by a whopping 13 percent with both players off the court this season, leading the team with a mark of 38.4 percent:
He’s been good recently even with Westbrook and Melo, averaging a Plus/Minus of +6.13 over his last 10 games on FanDuel. The Thunder also have the third highest implied team total of the day at 110.25 points, and unlike the teams ahead of them, are only small 3.5-point favorites against the Lakers. He leads all SFs with 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 86 percent.
Value
The Knicks will be without Kristaps Porzingis for the rest of the season after he tore his ACL in their last game. That should open the door for Michael Beasley to assume a larger role in the Knicks offense. He’s crushed in seven games without Porzingis this season, averaging 30 points per game on a usage rate of 31.9 percent:
He’s a better value today on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 81 percent.
Fast Break
Mario Hezonja should draw another start for the Magic, with Aaron Gordon potentially out until after the All-Star break. Hezonja disappointed in his last start, scoring just 20.2 FanDuel points, but he has been a solid source of value this season with Gordon out of the lineup:
He has a solid matchup today with the Hawks, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.12 on FanDuel.
Brandon Ingram has been a solid value recently, exceeding salary-based expectations in five of his last six games. He’s been playing heavy minutes and has averaged 0.98 fantasy points per minute over the past month. He’s a nice potential value today on DraftKings, where his $6,500 salary has a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
Power Forward
Stud
Markieff Morris is not priced like a stud, but he’s performed like one recently:
He’s seen a nice bump in usage and production with Wall out of the lineup, however, he does have a tough matchup today with the Boston Celtics. That said, he might just be too cheap at the moment given his role without Wall.
Value
With Nance now residing in Cleveland, the coast is clear for Kyle Kuzma to see an increased workload for the Lakers moving forward. He was fantastic early in the season, but his playing time has waned a bit over the last month or so. He’s still been a strong producer on a per-minute basis, however, averaging 0.84 fantasy points per minute over the past month. He’s a better value today on FanDuel, where he currently has a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
Fast Break
Marcus Morris played 29 minutes in his last game and has averaged 0.96 fantasy points per minute over the past month. If he plays that many minutes again today, he could be a nice potential value at just $4,900 on FanDuel.
With Barnes out today, Maxi Kleber could see a few additional minutes for the Dallas Mavericks. He’s averaged a solid 0.85 fantasy points per minute over the past month and is currently priced at the minimum on FanDuel.
Center
Stud
Dwight Howard has cooled off a bit after a torrid stretch earlier this month, failing to return value in four of his last five games. That has resulted in a massive salary decrease for Howard on FanDuel, with his current $8,200 salary representing a decrease of $2,000 from its peak. He currently has a Bargain Rating of 81 percent on FanDuel for today’s contest with the Trail Blazers, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.64.
Value
In addition to losing Porzingis to injury, the Knicks have also said goodbye to two centers in Wily Hernangomez and Joakim Noah. That should solidify the minutes for Kyle O’Quinn, who has averaged a stout 1.16 fantasy points per minute this season on FanDuel. His current $4,000 salary also results in a Bargain Rating of 93 percent.
Fast Break
Julius Randle could be the biggest beneficiary of the Lakers’ trade from earlier today. He has a much clearer path to playing time with Nance now out of the picture, and he’s averaged 42.19 DraftKings points per 36 minutes with Nance, Ball, and Clarkson off the floor this season.
Salah Mejri could be another member of the Mavs to see some increased playing time with Barnes out of the lineup. He’s averaged 1.02 fantasy points per minute and is priced at only $3,100 on DraftKings, so he doesn’t need to play much to potentially return value.
Good luck!
Photo via Erik Williams- USA TODAY Sports
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