The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a six-game slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Today’s slate is light on top end PG talent, with only one player owning a salary above $7,600 on FanDuel. That player is Chris Paul, who is in a brutal spot against the Miami Heat. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of -1.73 on FanDuel and the Rockets’ implied team total of 107.75 is more than six points lower than their season average (114.1). The Rockets are also on the second leg of a back-to-back, which is a situation that Paul has historically struggled with:
Overall, it seems like a day to pay down at the position.
Value
Dejounte Murray has one of the best matchups of the day at the position against the Phoenix Suns. The Suns have played at the third fastest pace this season, which results in a slate-high pace differential (paceD) of +5.5 for the Spurs’ players. They’ve also been the worst team this season in terms of defensive efficiency, allowing an average of 110 points per 100 possessions. The Spurs’ implied team total of 108 points ranks just sixth on the slate, but it represents an increase of more than seven points when compared to their season average (100.9). He’s a better value today on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
Fast Break
The PG situation in Indiana will be an interesting one to monitor today. Darren Collison will miss the next few weeks after undergoing a knee scope, which should benefit both Cory Joseph and Joseph Young in the immediate future. Joseph started on Monday and played 35.5 minutes, while Young saw approximately 28 minutes off the bench. Those roles could flip today as head coach Nate McMillan likes the pairing of Joseph and Lance Stephenson, so both could return to the bench if Victor Oladipo suits up. Regardless of their roles, both players have appeal at their current salaries in an elite matchup against the New Orleans Pelicans. They’ve allowed the fourth highest Plus/Minus to the PG position this season:
Ish Smith failed to return value in his most recent game, however, he played just 28.5 minutes in a game the Pistons won by 20 points. He had returned value in each of his three previous games on DraftKings, where he currently has a Bargain Rating of 93 percent. He has a strong matchup today with the Brooklyn Nets, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.45.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Most of the same things that plague CP3 on today’s slate also plague James Harden. The Heat have been marginally worse against SGs than they have against PGs, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +0.98, but it’s still one of the worst matchups possible. He will likely be owned at a lower rate than usual – he’s currently projected for 21-25 percent ownership on FanDuel and 9-12 percent ownership on DraftKings – which does increase his appeal for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Victor Oladipo has a much friendlier matchup against the New Orleans Pelicans, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.60. His price has decreased by $700 over the past week on DraftKings and his current $8,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98 percent. Assuming he plays and isn’t on a minutes restriction, he might be the preferred stud option over there.
Value
What’s better than playing against the Cavs? Playing against the Cavs when they’re on the second leg of a back-to-back! The Minnesota Timberwolves are in that situation today and unsurprisingly lead the slate with an implied team total of 112.5 points. The Cavs have been particularly weak against opposing wing players this season, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.56 for Andrew Wiggins on FanDuel. No SG is projected to play more than his 37.2 minutes, and he’s averaged 0.86 fantasy points per minute on the season.
Fast Break
Jrue Holiday doesn’t have a great matchup today with the Pacers, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +0.53 on DraftKings. That said, it’s possible that he’s just underpriced at the moment at $7,500. He’s averaged 1.05 fantasy points per minute over the past month and is currently projected for 36.6 minutes in our NBA Models. He’s also seen the largest usage bump on the team with DeMarcus Cousins off the court this season, resulting in an average of 43.43 DraftKings points per 36 minutes:
Danny Green has seen a bump in both playing time and production recently. He’s averaged 0.91 fantasy points per minute over the past month and played 33 minutes in the Spurs’ most recent game. He could be a major value at $4,800 on FanDuel if he sees that much playing time against the Suns.
Small Forward
Studs
Is it almost time to stop considering LeBron James a stud? He’s been particularly dreadful over his last four games, posting an average Plus/Minus of -11.89 on FanDuel. It doesn’t help that the Cavs continue to get roasted on the defensive end of the court, resulting in a fair share of blowouts. His fantasy output has decreased to 1.24 fantasy points per minute over the past month and that kind of production is going to make it difficult for him to return value at his current salary. Things don’t figure to get much better today against the elite individual defense of Jimmy Butler. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.34 for LeBron on FanDuel, which makes him tough to trust even as a contrarian option for GPPs.
On the other side of this matchup, things look pretty good for Butler today. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +3.31 over his last 10 games on FanDuel, yet his salary has actually decreased by $800 over that time frame. He obviously has a great matchup against the Cavs’ putrid D, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.33 on FanDuel. He’s also been a better per-minute producer than LeBron over the past month and costs more than $1,000 less across the industry. He should be the more popular option today.
Values
The best per-dollar values at the position might both play for the Phoenix Suns. They’re expected to be without Devin Booker again for today’s contest, which should open up some additional minutes and usage opportunities for T.J. Warren and Josh Jackson. Warren led the team with a 30.5 percent usage rate yesterday, which is in line with his season average with Booker off the court:
Jackson has actually been the better fantasy producer of late, exceeding salary-based expectations in five straight games while averaging 0.97 fantasy points per minute. He played 36 minutes yesterday and remains affordable at just $5,900 on FanDuel. Unfortunately, both players have a brutal matchup today with the Spurs, who remain one of the best teams in the league despite the absence of Kawhi Leonard.
Fast Break
DeMarre Carroll continues to play around 30 minutes a night for the Nets and has averaged 0.88 fantasy points per minute over the past month. He doesn’t offer a tremendous amount of upside, but his current $5,100 salary on FanDuel does result in a Bargain Rating of 93 percent.
Stanley Johnson has been playing a ton of minutes since the Pistons traded away Avery Bradley and Tobias Harris. He’s played at least 33.5 minutes in each of his last four games and has averaged 0.82 fantasy points per minute over the past month. He seems underpriced on DraftKings, where his $4,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98 percent.
Power Forward
Studs
PF is a strong position on today’s slate, featuring two good players in excellent matchups. Blake Griffin has played well since joining the Pistons, leading them to three straight wins. They’re currently implied for 109 points today against the Brooklyn Nets, and Griffin has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.82 on FanDuel.
LaMarcus Aldridge has arguably an better matchup against Phoenix, who have allowed the third highest average Plus/Minus to opposing PFs this season:
He continues to be the Spurs’ number one option on offense given the injury to Leonard.
Value
Nikola Mirotic is going to see a nice boost in fantasy value in New Orleans if his first two games with the Pelicans are any indication. He’s played at least 33 minutes in both games, which is significantly more than he was playing in Chicago. Even if he doesn’t have the same usage rate, the extra playing time still figures to benefit him in the long run. He’s particularly appealing tonight on DraftKings, where his $6,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93 percent.
Fast Break
Marquese Chriss has averaged 1.02 fantasy points per minute over the past month. That kind of production is rare for a player priced at just $4,500 on DraftKings. His playing time is volatile, but he did play 28 minutes in the last game that the Suns managed to keep competitive.
Domantas Sabonis wont see the same kind of playing time now that Myles Turner has returned form injury, but that’s reflected in his current salary. He’s still averaged 1.05 fantasy points per minute for the season and is currently projected for 25 minutes today in a plus matchup against the Pelicans. That kind of production would make him a solid value at $5,100 on FanDuel.
Center
Studs
The center position is loaded at the top today, but the preferred option probably comes down to which site you’re playing on. It’s hard to ignore Andre Drummond at $9,800 on DraftKings, where his current salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99 percent. He’s averaged a ridiculous 1.6 fantasy points per minute over the past month, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +11.36 over his last 10 games. He’s yet to be negatively impacted by Griffin as well, exceeding salary-based expectations in all three games since he joined the team. He has a dream matchup against the Nets, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +7.21, and his 12 Pro Trends are tied for the most on the slate.
Karl-Anthony Towns stands out on FanDuel. He only has a Bargain Rating of 60 percent, but that’s still the top mark among the elite centers on today’s slate. His matchup with the Cavs isn’t as strong as Drummond’s, but still results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.53.
Don’t forget about Anthony Davis either. He struggled in his last game against the Jazz but exceeded value in his five prior games on FanDuel. He has a solid matchup against the Pacers, who have been a significantly worse rebounding team with Turner on the floor this season. They’ve grabbed just 47.4 percent of all rebounds in that situation, which would be the worst mark in the league.
Value
Hassan Whiteside returned in Miami’s last game, but that didn’t stop Bam Adebayo from playing 26 minutes and scoring 40.5 FanDuel points. Kelly Olynyk is questionable for today’s game, and Adebayo’s minutes would likely be secure if he doesn’t play. Either way, Whiteside told reporters he doesn’t expect to play more than 22-23 minutes a game moving forward, so Adebayo figures to play a larger role for the Heat down the stretch.
Fast Break
Clint Capela has produced like an elite center on a per-minute basis this season, averaging 1.3 fantasy points per minute on FanDuel. He’s played at least 30 minutes in three of his last four games and has exceeded salary-based expectations in all of them. The only thing that has really stopped all season has been reduced minutes in blowout situations, and the Rockets are only 4.5-point favorites today against the Heat.
Good luck!
Photo via Soobum Im- USA TODAY Sports
News Updates
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