The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features an eight-game slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Stephen Curry is the most-expensive PG on FanDuel and has a strong matchup today against the Denver Nuggets. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.78, and the Warriors’ implied team total of 118.5 is the top mark on the slate. That’s a lot of points even for Golden State – they average 115.7 on the season – and Curry has historically been a strong value with a comparable implied team total:
Value
Rajon Rondo played 34 minutes last night for the Pelicans and turned that playing time into 43.9 fantasy points on FanDuel. He has a clear path to consistent playing time after the injury to Cousins and the Pelicans’ recent trade, and he has been a productive player for the majority of the season when given a chance, averaging 0.94 fantasy points per minute. If he’s going to continue to play that much, he’s almost undoubtedly underpriced at $4,600 across the industry.
Fast Break
Jamal Murray has one of the better matchups of the day at the PG position, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.73 on DraftKings against the Warriors. Murray has been able to carve out a consistent role for the Nuggets recently, playing at least 34 minutes in six of his past seven games. He’s crushed over that time frame, posting an average Plus/Minus of +9.33, but his salary has remained reasonable at $6,500 on DraftKings and $6,800 on FanDuel. Plus, he can do stuff like this:
Lord have mercy Jamal Murray got Steven Adams playing Twister on a basketball court pic.twitter.com/cC06uNLNXQ
— Rob Perez (@World_Wide_Wob) February 2, 2018
Ricky Rubio has been outstanding of late, scoring at least 28.7 FanDuel points in seven of his past eight games. He needed only 26 minutes last night to put up 40.7 fantasy points against the hapless Suns. That said, his matchup against the Spurs is about as tough as it gets. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +0.09, and the Jazz are implied for only 94 points in what is easily the lowest total game of the night.
Jeff Teague owns the best matchup of the day at the position against the Pelicans. He has a +6.01 Opponent Plus/Minus on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
Shooting Guard
Studs
The SG position features a couple of excellent players in excellent spots on today’s slate. James Harden seems fully recovered from his injury, scoring at least 50 fantasy points in five straight games. He has a chance to do some serious damage tonight against the Cavaliers, who have been an absolute disaster on defense for the entire season. They currently rank 28th in defensive efficiency, which could be a serious problem against a Rockets team that has averaged 119 points per 100 possessions with Harden on the court this season. Harden leads all players with 14 Pro Trends on FanDuel, and players with a comparable number of Pro Trends have historically been excellent values:
Bradley Beal has been Harden-esque recently, scoring at least 47.7 FanDuel points in three of his past four games. He’s obviously been a huge beneficiary of the injury to John Wall, posting a usage increase of 3.3 percent in games without his star running mate this season. He has an elite matchup today against the Magic, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.39 on FanDuel. It’s going to be tough to fit both Beal and Harden into your lineup, but both players have incredibly high ceilings in their respective matchups.
Value
Many of the Nuggets are underpriced on DraftKings at the moment, with three of their key players owning Bargain Ratings of at least 98 percent:
Gary Harris and Will Barton both have SG eligibility on DraftKings and are worthy of consideration against the Warriors. Harris has been the more reliable option, posting a Consistency Rating of 85 percent over the past year, while Barton has been playing more minutes of the two recently.
Fast Break
Dwyane Wade doesn’t play many minutes for the Cavaliers, but he’s typically productive when he’s on the court. He’s averaged 1.03 fantasy points per minute over the past month, and he doesn’t need to play many minutes to have a chance to pay off his current $4,700 salary on DraftKings.
Small Forward
Studs
The Cavs have won three of their past four games, but things haven’t gotten much better for LeBron James from a fantasy perspective over that time frame. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of -5.82 on FanDuel over his past 10 games and a Plus/Minus of -13.0 in each of his past two. That said, today’s game against the Rockets could be a prime spot for him to bounce back. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.16, and the Rockets will be without one of their best wing defenders in Trevor Ariza. The Cavs’ implied team total of 113.75 points ranks fifth on today’s slate.
While he’s not LeBron, Jimmy Butler might be the preferred stud option at the position on FanDuel. He’s been in good recent form, averaging a Plus/Minus of +2.64 over his past 10 games, and his salary has actually decreased by $900 over his last month. The Timberwolves are in an elite spot today against the Pelicans, evidenced by their implied team total of 115 points.
Value
Gerald Green has played 30-plus minutes in back-to-back games given their recent injuries and figures to see a similar amount of playing time today. He’s averaged 0.82 fantasy points per minute on the season, and his $4,600 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 93 percent. He has one of the best matchups of the day against the Cavs, evidenced by his Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.76.
Fast Break
Justise Winslow has exceeded salary-based expectations in five of his past six games on DraftKings, but his salary hasn’t budged from $3,700. His salary results in a Bargain Rating of 95 percent, and he could see a few additional minutes if the Heat go small without Hassan Whiteside.
Andrew Wiggins has SF eligibility on DraftKings and could be a potential value at just $5,700. That represents a decrease of $1,300 over his past five games.
Power Forward
Stud
Today seems like a day to pay down at the PF position: Only two of the 10 highest-priced options on FanDuel have a positive Projected Plus/Minus in our NBA Models. One of those players is Draymond Green, who has posted a Consistency Rating of 84 percent over the past month. He doesn’t have a great matchup against the Nuggets, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +0.04, although he has found a lot of success against this team in their first three matchups:
Value
Kelly Olynyk has been a nice source of value recently:
He also has a chance to see a larger workload today given the injury to Whiteside. He’s averaged 32.75 FanDuel points per 36 minutes in games without Whiteside this season:
His $4,700 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 86 percent.
Fast Break
It will be interesting to see how many minutes Nikola Mirotic plays in his first game with the Pelicans. He should ultimately wind up playing more minutes per game than he did in Chicago, but they may look to ease him into the rotation in his debut. Regardless, he seems underpriced on DraftKings at $5,100 given his average of 1.12 fantasy points per minute.
Luc Mbah a Moute is one of the least productive players on the slate on a per-minute basis, averaging 0.55 fantasy points per minute over the past month. That said, he’s played at least 35 minutes in back-to-back games and is currently priced at just $4,300. Even poor per-minute producers have historically been nice values with comparable salaries and playing time projections (35 minutes):
Center
Stud
Nikola Jokic is the other member of the Nuggets with a Bargain Rating of at least 98 percent on DraftKings. He has a strong Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.72 against the Warriors, who have historically been a good matchup for Jokic:
He’s coming off a monster performance against the Oklahoma City Thunder and has averaged 1.34 fantasy points per minute over the past month.
Value
The center position could be the best source of value today on FanDuel. Bam Adebayo will likely draw the start for the injured Whiteside, and he’s been a solid per-minute producer over the past month (0.93 points per minute). He’s currently projected for 27.8 minutes, which would give him a solid chance to return value at just $3,800.
Marreese Speights is another potential value option. He’s played at least 21 minutes in back-to-back games and has scored at least 27.3 fantasy points in both. There’s a reason they call him “Mo Buckets.” He has a nice matchup today versus the Washington Wizards, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.15.
Fast Break
Anthony Davis is now center-eligible on FanDuel, and he’s obviously always in play with Cousins sidelined. He’s averaged a usage rate of 36.2 percent in games without his star teammate this season, which represents an increase of 8.1 percent. That said, he doesn’t have a great matchup today against the Timberwolves, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +0.57 on FanDuel. He’s a better value today on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 93 percent.
Good luck!
Photo via Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
News Updates
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