The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a nine-game slate starting at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
The Thunder are on the second leg of a back-to-back today after playing in one of the most exciting games of the year last night against the Denver Nuggets. Russell Westbrook scored 68.3 FanDuel points in that game thanks to 21 assists, and he has the top matchup of the day against the New Orleans Pelicans. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.07, and the Thunder’s implied team total of 114 points ranks second on the slate. Westbrook has smashed on FanDuel over the past two seasons with a comparable implied team total:
He remains one of the safest investments in daily fantasy basketball.
Value
The Utah Jazz are in one of the top pace-up spots of the day against the Phoenix Suns, resulting in a pace differential (paceD) of +4.9 for their players. They remain without Rodney Hood, which should result in a larger role for Ricky Rubio. He’s scored at least 28.7 FanDuel points in six of his past seven games and has one of the better Opponent Plus/Minus’ of the day (+2.86). He’s especially appealing on FanDuel, where his $5,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
Fast Break
Kyle Lowry exploded for 52.5 FanDuel points last night. He did not get a salary bump because he’s playing on a back-to-back. Lowry has a difficult matchup against Portland, who currently ranks eighth in defensive efficiency, but he offers a lot of upside at just $7,300.
There’s a chance that Milwaukee could be really thin at the PG position today, with Malcolm Brogdon already ruled out and Eric Bledsoe currently questionable. That would likely open the door for Matthew Dellavedova to assume a larger role. He played 25 minutes against Minnesota yesterday and has averaged 0.72 fantasy points per minute over the past month.
Goran Dragic is really appealing on FanDuel today, where he currently has a Bargain Rating of 98 percent. He also has a solid matchup with the Philadelphia 76ers (+3.17 Opponent Plus/Minus).
Shooting Guard
Studs
Today’s slate features a strong group of SGs, with seven players on FanDuel possessing salaries of at least $7,500. One of those options is Jrue Holiday, who figures to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the injury to DeMarcus Cousins. He’s increased his usage rate by a team-high 7.9 percent with Cousins off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 45.48 DraftKings points per 36 minutes:
He has a solid Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.15 against the Oklahoma City Thunder, and that number doesn’t account for how poor their defense has been with Andre Roberson off the court this season. They Pelicans have also played approximately five possessions faster per 48 minutes with Cousins off the court, so they could be in a prime spot to put up a lot of points today. Holiday is especially appealing on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 99 percent.
Donovan Mitchell has arguably the best matchup of the group against the Phoenix Suns. Utah’s implied team total of 108 points is six points higher than their season average (102). It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.51 for Mitchell on FanDuel. He should also benefit from the absence of Hood: Mitchell has increased his usage rate to a team-high 29.4 percent with Hood off the court this season.
Value
Courtney Lee rarely has a performance that will wow you but has been pretty reliable for most of the season. He’s currently priced down to $4,700 on FanDuel, and he’s crushed value this year with a comparable price tag:
Fast Break
Khris Middleton has played really well of late, exceeding salary-based expectations in eight of his past nine games on FanDuel. He’s also seen the largest usage bump on the team with Bledsoe off the court this season, resulting in an average of 35.13 FanDuel points per 36 minutes:
There’s also a chance that Giannis Antetokounmpo doesn’t play in today’s contest – he’s questionable with an ankle injury – and his absence would make Middleton almost a must play.
It will be interesting to see if people go back to the well with Terry Rozier today. He dominated in his last start, putting up a triple-double en route to 58.75 DraftKings points, and Kyrie Irving, Marcus Smart, and Shane Larkin will all miss today’s contest yet again. Rozier’s salary has come up quite a bit after that last performance, but he’s still averaged 0.97 fantasy points per minute over the past month and will likely need to play 32+ minutes in today’s contest. He also has one of the best matchups on the board against the Atlanta Hawks, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.09 on DraftKings.
Small Forward
Stud
Paul George actually led the Thunder in usage yesterday, which is pretty hard to do these days. It resulted in 62.75 DraftKings points, and his salary actually decreased on DraftKings for today’s contest with the Pelicans. It should be an excellent spot for him, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.86. He leads all SFs with 13 Pro Trends, which has historically led to solid fantasy production:
He’s a better value today on DraftKings (95 percent Bargain Rating).
Value
The Pelicans look like they’re going to be pretty shorthanded today. They traded Omer Asik, Tony Allen, and Jameer Nelson for Nikola Mirotic, who is not expected to make his debut tonight. Dante Cunningham also left their most recent game with a back injury, which puts his status for tonight’s game in jeopardy. All of that spells a lot of minutes for E’Twuan Moore, who has been one of the most reliable fantasy assets on DraftKings over the past year. He’s posted a Consistency Rating of 87 percent, and his current $4,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99 percent.
Fast Break
TJ Warren has a brutal matchup with the Utah Jazz, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.46 on FanDuel. That said, he might just be too cheap to pass up at $6,800. He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in five of his past seven games and has averaged 0.98 fantasy points per minute this season.
Josh Richardson was a bust in his most recent contest, but it wasn’t due to a lack of minutes. He played more than 34 for the eighth consecutive game and has averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.91 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. He has a solid matchup today against the 76ers (+2.10 Opponent Plus/Minus on FanDuel).
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis has been a really solid investment over his past 10 games on DraftKings:
Unfortunately, his salary has been hiked up quite a bit since the injury to Cousins, although that didn’t stop him from returning value in his most recent game. His current $11,400 salary results in a Bargain Rating of 99 percent on DraftKings, however, he’s historically struggled to pay off a comparable price tag:
Davis does have a solid matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder, resulting in an Opponent Plus/minus of +2.84. No one on the slate is projected to play more minutes than him in our NBA Models.
Value
Marvin Williams remains out for the Charlotte Hornets, which means that Frank Kaminsky should earn another start today against the Indiana Pacers. He played 30 minutes in his last game and has averaged 0.8 fantasy points per minute on the season. He’s a stronger value today on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 93 percent.
Fast Break
Kristaps Porzingis has seen a salary decrease of $900 over the past month on FanDuel, which makes him an intriguing buy-low candidate for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). He offers one of the top combinations of usage and defensive impact in the league and has a wonderful matchup today with the Milwaukee Bucks. The Bucks have been the second worst rebounding team in the league this season, which gives Porzingis some additional upside on the glass.
Jayson Tatum could also be intriguing on today’s slate. The Celtics will be without Marcus Morris, in addition to Irving, Smart, and Larkin, which could result in a larger role and workload for Tatum in today’s contents.
Center
Stud
Dwight Howard continues to dominate in the interior for the Hornets, going for at least 20 points and 11 rebounds in four of his last five games. He’ll have a good opportunity to do it again today against the Indiana Pacers, who have been one of the better matchups for centers all season. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.36 for Howard on DraftKings, where he currently has a Bargain Rating of 95 percent. He’s still appealing on FanDuel, although it will be much tougher for him to hit value at $10,000 without the luxury of the double-double bonus.
Value
Aron Baynes could see a couple of additional minutes today with Morris out of the lineup. He’s currently projected for 24.5, and Baynes has historically provided solid value on FanDuel with a comparable minute projection:
He also has a solid matchup against the Atlanta Hawks, who have the fourth-lowest rebound rate this season.
Fast Break
Here’s what Jonas Valanciunas has done over his past 10 games:
He’s always been super effective when given a chance – he’s averaged 1.23 DraftKings points per minute this season – but has struggled to earn consistent minutes for the Raptors throughout his entire career.
Tyson Chandler has an absolutely brutal matchup against the Utah Jazz, but he could be in a position to play huge minutes today. The Suns finally decided to waive Greg Monroe, who signed with the Boston Celtics, and Alex Len will miss today’s contest as well. Chandler has averaged 0.83 fantasy points per minute this season on FanDuel, so he doesn’t need to play a ton to have a chance to return value at $4,800.
Good luck!
Photo via Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports
News Updates
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