The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a five-game slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook is coming off a disappointing performance in his last outing, but that’s a bit of an outlier for him. He’s posted a Consistency Rating of 87 percent on DraftKings over the past year, making him one of the safest investments in daily fantasy basketball. He’s in a nice bounce-back spot today against the Denver Nuggets. The Thunder’s implied team total of 109 points is tied for the top mark on the slate and Westbrook has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.99. He’s a much stronger value today on DraftKings, where he owns a Bargain Rating of 98 percent.
Value
Jamal Murray has seen a salary decrease of $1,000 on DraftKings over the past month and his current $5,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98 percent. He’s had a string of recent tough matchups — @ San Antonio, vs Boston, vs Portland – but has maintained a strong average of 0.88 fantasy points per minute over the past month. He has a much more fantasy-friendly matchup today against the Oklahoma City Thunder, who have been one of the worst defensive teams in the league with Andre Roberson off the court this season.
Fast Break
The Raptors really haven’t needed Kyle Lowry recently. He’s played 28 minutes or less in two of his last four games, and his current $7,400 salary on FanDuel is among the lowest it’s been all season. The Raptors’ implied team total is tied with the Thunder’s for the top mark on the slate.
Dejounte Murray has exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel in every game since entering the starting lineup six games ago. He’s in one of the top pace-up spots of the day against the Houston Rockets, resulting in a pace differential (paceD) of +4.5. He would get a boost if Chris Paul is ruled out for the Rockets, who remains one of the best defensive players at the position.
Shooting Guard
Stud
So James Harden is pretty good, huh? He dropped a ridiculous 103.5 DraftKings points in his most recent game, becoming the first person in NBA history to score 60 points and record a triple-double in the same contest. However, that game was against the defensively challenged Orlando Magic. Things wont come nearly as easy today against the San Antonio Spurs. The Spurs rank second in the league in defensive efficiency and 29th in pace. Houston’s resulting implied team total of 105.75 points represents a decrease of more than eight points when compared to their season average (114.1). Harden has also really struggled against the Spurs over the past two seasons:
That said, it would be tough to avoid him if both Paul and Eric Gordon are ruled out again for today’s contest. Harden has posted a ridiculous 42.8 percent usage rate with both players off the court this season, which has resulted in an average of 55.43 FanDuel points per 36 minutes:
Value
Sterling Brown has been a solid contributor for the Bucks recently, playing at least 27 minutes in four of his last five games. That number only figures to increase with Eric Bledsoe ruled out for today’s contest, as Brown has averaged 0.73 fantasy points per minute over the past month. He’s priced at the dead minimum on FanDuel and will likely be a popular punt option on today’s slate.
Fast Break
Bradley Beal did not disappoint in his most recent game without John Wall but will face a much stiffer defensive test today from the Toronto Raptors. The Raptors rank third in defensive efficiency this season and Washington’s implied team total of 105.5 is the fourth lowest mark on today’s slate. Beal has seen a usage bump of 3.4 percent with Wall off the court this season and he leads all SGs on FanDuel with 12 Pro Trends.
Will Barton remains underpriced on DraftKings given his current role for the Denver Nuggets. He’s played a tremendous amount of minutes recently, playing at least 38.5 in each of his last four games. He’s averaged 0.93 fantasy points per minute on the season and his current $5,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98 percent.
Small Forward
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo has yet to be impacted by the coaching change in Milwaukee, but there are some signs that could spell trouble for him down the road. The biggest is his drop in playing time. He routinely played 38+ minutes under Jason Kidd, but interim head coach Joe Prunty has played him 35.5 minutes or less in each of the last three games. Giannis has made up for that by dominating the basketball in those games, posting a usage rate of at least 35.9 percent in all of them, but if that drops off it will be much tougher for him to return value. He’s also been priced up to a whopping $12,000 on FanDuel, which results in a Bargain Rating of zero percent.
That said, Giannis should benefit from the absence of Bledsoe. Here’s what the FantasyLabs news team had to say:
Value
The injury situation in Memphis is getting a little ridiculous. Mario Chalmers, Chandler Parsons, and Mike Conley all remain out and James Ennis and JaMychal Green are both questionable. The Grizzlies will also reportedly hold Tyreke Evans out until after the trade deadline to preserve his health while they try to trade him. That results in a whole lot of offense being available for the Grizzlies in the near future.
One player who seems likely to grab a larger piece of the offense is Dillon Brooks. He’s been a strong fantasy producer of late, averaging a Plus/Minus of +6.54 on FanDuel over his last 10 games. He’s also increased his usage rate by 4.1 percent with all of the injured/resting Grizzlies off the floor this season. He played 40 minutes in his most recent game and could approach a similar minute threshold tonight if everyone who is questionable for Memphis does not play.
Fast Break
Jimmy Butler leads all SFs on FanDuel with 11 Pro Trends and represents a savings of more than $3,000 when compared to Giannis on today’s slate. He’s been excellent on a per minute basis over the past month, averaging 1.24 fantasy points per minute, and played over 38 minutes in his most recent game.
So far this season, no one on the Wizards has provided a better Plus/Minus with Wall off the court than Otto Porter:
He does have a tough matchup today with the Raptors, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +0.54, but he seems underpriced at $6,600 given his average of 0.98 fantasy points per minute without Wall.
Power Forward
Stud
PF is a bit thin at the top today, with only two players owning salaries above $6,200 on FanDuel. One of those players is LaMarcus Aldridge, who is in an interesting spot against the Houston Rockets. The Rockets have been vulnerable against opposing PFs this season, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.14 for Aldridge in today’s matchup. Aldridge has historically done well in this matchup as a member of the Spurs:
He’s a much better value today on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 99 percent.
Value
Markieff Morris has crushed over his last three games, scoring at least 35.5 FanDuel points in three straight games. His role doesn’t figure to diminish with Wall expected to be out for six to eight weeks and he remains affordable on FanDuel at $5,700. He figures to be one of the chalkiest players there: He’s currently projected for 31-35 percent ownership in our NBA Models.
Fast Break
John Henson has exceeded salary-based expectations in four straight games and seems to have solidified his playing time under Prunty. He’s averaged a pretty stout 0.92 fantasy points per minute on FanDuel this season and has played at least 28 minutes in four straight games.
If Green can’t go for Memphis, look for Jarell Martin to play heavy minutes at PF against the Detroit Pistons. He had returned value in six straight games before busting in his last game against the Pacers.
Center
Studs
Karl-Anthony Towns has the best matchup of the day at the center position, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.11 on DraftKings against the Milwaukee Bucks. The Bucks have been the second worst rebounding team in the league this season and the Timberwolves’ implied team total of 108.5 ranks third on today’s slate. Like most centers, he’s a better value on DraftKings (90 percent Bargain Rating).
On FanDuel, Clint Capela stands out as a bit of an anomaly at his current salary. He’s the only center on FanDuel priced above $4,600 with a Bargain Rating greater than 13 percent:
That pricing makes him very appealing, albeit in a difficult matchup against the Spurs. Capela did crack the 30-minute mark in his most recent game and has averaged 1.29 fantasy points per minute this season.
Value
Pau Gasol has not been playing many minutes recently but that hasn’t stopped him from returning value. He’s scored at least 33.25 fantasy points in each of his last two games despite playing less than 25 minutes in both contests. If he can see a few additional minutes today, he has a chance to be an excellent value at his current $5,700 salary on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Nikola Jokic has been priced down to $8,100 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99 percent. Jokic has historically been an awesome value with a comparable price tag:
He does have a difficult matchup against Steven Adams and the Thunder, but Jokic has the talent to go off against anyone.
Good luck!
Photo via Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
