The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features a six-game main slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Stephen Curry and the Warriors have one of the toughest matchups of the day against the Boston Celtics. Boston ranks first defensively in a variety of categories, including defensive efficiency, effective field goal percentage allowed, half court defense, and 3-point defense. Curry really struggled against them in their first matchup, making just 3-of-14 shot attempts and scoring just 31.7 fantasy points. That said, he might be too cheap to ignore on FanDuel, where his $9,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97 percent. Curry has historically been a nice value when comparably-priced:
Value
The best matchup of the day at the position belongs to Darren Collison. He gets to take on the Orlando Magic, who have allowed the second-highest average Plus/Minus to opposing PGs on FanDuel this season:
Collison torched the Cavs for over 50 fantasy points in his first game back from injury, and his 36.5 minutes of playing time suggests that he’s not on any sort of minutes restriction. The Pacers’ implied team total of 110 points trails only the Warriors’ on today’s slate and represents an increase of nearly four points compared to their season average (106.4). Collison is a particularly strong value on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 95 percent.
Fast Break
Marcus Smart is expected to miss the next two weeks after punching a picture frame and injuring his hand. One player who will likely be asked to assume a larger role during his absence is Terry Rozier. Rozier has been awesome all season when given a chance, averaging 0.86 fantasy points per minute on FanDuel. He’s currently projected for 25.9 minutes in our NBA Models, and Rozier has historically crushed value with a comparable minutes projection:
He’s really affordable on FanDuel, where his $3,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98 percent.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Bradley Beal exploded for over 70 DraftKings points in his last game, scoring over 40 points in a near triple-double. While that has resulted in a large salary increase for today’s game, he does have a strong matchup versus the Atlanta Hawks. He’s also projected to play the most minutes on the slate by a significant margin, and his average of 1.04 fantasy points per minute over the past month ranks third among SG-eligible players on FanDuel.
Note: John Wall has been ruled out of today’s contest. Here’s our news blurb on that situation:
Value
Will Barton has been a disappointment since moving into the starting lineup for the Nuggets, posting a negative Plus/Minus in each of his past two games. However, he did play at least 34 minutes in each of those, which paints an encouraging picture for his fantasy outlook moving forward. He’s averaged 0.94 fantasy points per minute this season on DraftKings, so the production should come assuming he continues to play a big role. He’s a stronger value today on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
Fast Break
Victor Oladipo has been a major disappointment over his past 10 games:
That said, there’s no better cure for a slump than the Magic. The matchup results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.11 for Oladipo on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 86 percent. It could be a prime opportunity to buy low on him.
Klay Thompson leads the league with a ridiculous 45.7 percent 3-point percentage, and his excellence from deep allows him to score points in bunches. He’s gone for at least 41.75 DraftKings points in two of his past four games, and his current $6,100 salary is as cheap as it’s been all season. The Celtics are a tough matchup, evidenced by his Opponent Plus/Minus of just +1.30, but Thompson has the ability to go off on anyone.
Small Forward
Stud
Kevin Durant stands out in his own tier at the position on today’s slate. He’s the highest-priced SF by $2,500 on DraftKings, and he could potentially lead all SFs on FanDuel by $3,800 if Jimmy Butler doesn’t play. That will likely result in significant ownership for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) since no one at the position can match his projected ceiling.
That said, today’s matchup against the Celtics is far from ideal. The Celtics have been outstanding this season against opposing SFs, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.84 on FanDuel. Durant is also quite expensive at $10,500 despite posting a triple-double in his last game: He’s historically failed to exceed value on a consistent basis with the Warriors when comparably-priced:
Value
Jaylen Brown has seen reduced playing time over his past two games, failing to crack 28.5 minutes in either of them. He has remained productive, averaging 0.82 fantasy points per minute over the past month on FanDuel, and the injury to Smart could open up a few additional minutes for Brown in today’s contest. He’s appealing on FanDuel, where his $5,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93 percent. He scored over 42 fantasy points in his first matchup with the Warriors this season.
Fast Break
Otto Porter has played big minutes for the Wizards recently, getting at least 37 in each of their last two competitive games. He’s a low usage player – he hasn’t cracked the 20 percent mark in each of his past 12 games – but he makes up for it by scoring fantasy points in a variety of ways. His average of 0.92 fantasy points per minute on the season trails only Durant’s and Butler’s among SFs on FanDuel.
Harrison Barnes has been quite possibly the most underrated fantasy asset on DraftKings this season. He’s scored at least 30 fantasy points in 10 of his past 12 games, yet his salary has actually decreased by $300 over the past month. The Mavs have the lowest implied team total of the day at 100.25 points, but low totals haven’t stopped Barnes from doing what he’s done for the majority of the season.
Power Forward
Studs
The PF position is probably the thinnest position on the slate at the top, with only Aaron Gordon and Draymond Green possessing salaries above $6,500 on FanDuel. We’ll start with Gordon. His production has dipped after a strong start to the season: He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of -4.89 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. The lack of production hasn’t been due to a lack of playing time, but rather a dip in his per-minute productivity: He’s gone from 1.01 to 0.91 fantasy points per minute over the past month. He doesn’t have a great matchup today against the Pacers, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.05.
Green is slightly cheaper across the industry and has been the superior fantasy producer of late, which will likely make him the preferred target for most people paying up at PF on today’s slate. He has a brutal Opponent Plus/Minus of -1.22 against the Celtics, but that number likely overstates how difficult this matchup is. The Celtics have been starting Marcus Morris at PF recently, who has been a disaster defensively this season. He ranks 81st out of 97 qualifiers at PF in Defensive Real Plus-Minus (DRPM) and has allowed 1.1 fantasy points per minute as a defender this season. Draymond leads all PFs with 11 Pro Trends on FanDuel.
Value
Jayson Tatum has been priced down to $5,000 on FanDuel on today’s slate, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 93 percent. The salary decrease is a bit surprising given his recent production, as he’s scored at least 25.8 fantasy points in three of his past four games.
Fast Break
The Nuggets have been alternating their starting PF based on matchup, with Trey Lyles and Mason Plumlee each seeing the majority of minutes in certain situations. Whichever player sees the most minutes today could be a nice value against the Dallas Mavericks. The Mavs have been the worst team on the glass this season, giving each player a strong Opposing Plus/Minus for today’s game.
There’s a chance Myles Turner could return for the Pacers in today’s contest, but if he doesn’t Domantas Sabonis remains in play against the Magic. For the most part, he’s been a monster this season in games without Turner:
Center
Studs
As usual, the center position features some of the largest pricing discrepancies between players on the slate. Paying attention to the specific pricing on each site is more important at center than any other position.
Karl-Anthony Towns has the best matchup of the day, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.52 on FanDuel. He should also be relatively unaffected by the status of Butler. Towns has actually averaged fewer fantasy points in games without Butler so far this season:
He stands out on FanDuel, where his $9,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86 percent. He’s the only stud center option who’s a better value today on FanDuel, with the other top options all owning Bargain Ratings of less than 10 percent.
On DraftKings, Nikola Jokic could be in for a huge game against the Mavericks. He destroyed them for 67 DraftKings points in their most recent matchup and has had a lot of success against them in general over the past two seasons:
Value
This could be a slate to pay up at the position. No true value option stands out, although you could make the case that Al Horford represents a solid value on FanDuel at just $6,700. He didn’t play in his most recent game, but the team has stated that he did not have a concussion and that it was purely for precautionary reasons. Assuming that is the case, he should be a full go tonight against the Warriors.
Fast Break
Dwight Howard has been absolutely dominant recently:
He remains fairly priced on DraftKings at $8,000, giving him a Bargain Rating of 99 percent. His matchup against the Heat isn’t as strong as Jokic’s or Towns’ but still results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.61. He leads all centers on DraftKings with 11 Pro Trends.
Good luck!
Photo via Matt Costello-USA TODAY Sports
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
