The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a 10-game slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Stud
The highest priced PG on today’s slate also happens to have the best matchup. Chris Paul is taking on the New Orleans Pelicans, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.76. There should be a lot of scoring in this game as both teams rank in the top six in offensive efficiency and top eight in pace, and the resulting over/under of 227 points is the top mark on today’s slate.
The big concern with Paul is his salary now that the Rockets are back at full strength. He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in just one of four games since James Harden returned from injury and has posted an average Plus/Minus of -11.57 on FanDuel over his last two games. He’s averaged 10.9 fewer fantasy points per 36 minutes when sharing the court with Harden this season:
Despite the juicy matchup, he might still be a bit too pricey across the industry.
Value
Dejounte Murray has not disappointed since joining the starting lineup for the Spurs, exceeding value in each of his last three games. Murray has been super productive all season – he’s averaged 1.0 fantasy points per minute on DraftKings – and has played at least 24.5 minutes in three straight games. He’ll have a good chance to make it four in a row today against the 76ers, who have been one of the best matchups for PGs this season. Philly has also played at the second fastest pace this season, resulting in a pace differential (paceD) of +6.1 for the Spurs’ players.
Fast Break
While Utah has the reputation for being an elite defensive team, they haven’t exactly lived up to that billing this season. They currently rank just 13th in defensive efficiency and they’re allowing the fourth highest average Plus/Minus to opposing PGs on DraftKings:
Kyle Lowry gets to face them today and his salary has been decreased by $700 on DraftKings in anticipation of the “tough” matchup. He’s historically had a lot of success in this matchup as well, averaging a Plus/Minus of +8.67 over seven games.
Jrue Holiday leads all PGs on DraftKings with 12 Pro Trends, and is another PG who has seen a price decrease for today’s contest. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.44 over his last 10 games, yet his salary dropped by $600 after one bad performance in his last outing. His current $6,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95 percent and he has an awesome Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.00 in his matchup with the Rockets.
Shooting Guard
Studs
James Harden has yet to be fully unleashed since returning from injury, but it hasn’t really been necessary with the Rockets winning all four games. His average of 1.37 FanDuel points per minute over the past month is a slight decrease from his season-long average (1.47), and he’s yet to exceed 35 minutes of playing time. It seems like only a matter of time before he gets rolling and his $11,400 salary on FanDuel is fair given his previous production. He’s been a solid value over the past two seasons with a comparable price tag:
His matchup with the Pelicans is also a good one, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.66.
While Harden probably offers the highest ceiling at the position, Devin Booker might be a better value today on FanDuel. He’s currently priced at just $8,000, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 93 percent. His matchup today with the Knicks is average – he has an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +1.66 – but the Knicks are playing on the road for the second leg of a back-to-back.
Value
A lack of minutes has not hurt Zach LaVine from a fantasy perspective since returning from injury. He’s yet to crack the 24-minute barrier, but that hasn’t stopped him from averaging a Plus/Minus of +4.01 on FanDuel over his first six games. He’s been a usage monster, posting a usage rate of 31.7 or more in four of those games. He’s expected to play 26-28 minutes in tonight’s contest per head coach Fred Hoiberg. He has a solid matchup with the Lakers, who have played at the fastest pace in the league this season, as the Bulls’ resulting implied team total of 113.25 ranks third on the slate.
Fast Break
Donovan Mitchell has been in a bit of a slump recent, causing his salary to drop to $6,700 on DraftKings for today’s contest with the Raptors. He hasn’t been priced that cheap on many occasions since breaking out earlier this season, but he has returned solid value with a comparable price tag:
He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.95 on DraftKings against the Raptors and leads all SGs with 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel.
Small Forward
Studs
The Cavaliers have been a circus recently. They’ve lost 10 of their last 13 games, had multiple players leak to the media that they don’t think they can fix their defense this season, and had a players only meeting to basically admonish Kevin Love. Even the great LeBron James hasn’t been immune to all this dysfunction, posting an average Plus/Minus of -5.46 on FanDuel over his last 10 games. Sharing the court with Isaiah Thomas would appear to be the biggest reason for the decline, with LeBron seeing a major decrease in both his assist and usage rates while averaging 12.4 fewer fantasy points per 36 minutes:
He could be intriguing for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs), especially considering he will likely have reduced ownership after his poor recent play, but he’s way too risky to trust for cash games at the moment.
Most people paying up at the position will likely elect for Giannis Antetokounmpo, who will make his return today against the Nets after missing the last two games with a knee injury. It’s a fantastic matchup for Giannis, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.43 on DraftKings and a paceD of +4.0. The Bucks’ implied team total of 109.5 points also ranks fifth on the slate and represents an increase of close to five points when compared to their season average (104.8). Overall, there’s a lot to like here.
However, this will be the first game for the Bucks since firing head coach Jason Kidd and we have no idea what the team will look like under interim head coach Joe Prunty. Much of Giannis’ value came from the fact that Kidd would play him for a ton of minutes – he’s currently leading the league with an average of 37.4 per game – and there’s no guarantee he’ll see that much playing time under Prunty. That said, Malcolm Brogdon has been ruled out for today’s contest, so he could wind up seeing a few extra minutes regardless of the coaching situation. He’s especially appealing on DraftKings, where his $10,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99 percent.
Value
The Grizzlies have been the walking wounded recently and one of the biggest beneficiaries has been Dillon Brooks. He’s played at least 28 minutes in five straight games and has posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.23 on FanDuel over that time frame. Tyreke Evans is currently questionable for today’s contest and Mike Conley, JaMychal Green, Chandler Parsons, and James Ennis have already been ruled out. If Evans can’t go, the Grizzlies will have no choice but to lean heavily on Brooks once again: He’s seen the largest usage increase with all five players off the court this season:
Fast Break
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist has not been an appealing option for most of the season, but he is in an intriguing spot today against the Atlanta Hawks. The Hawks have been one of the worst defensive teams all season, rewarding MKG with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.21 for today’s contest. He’s also really cheap on DraftKings at $4,000, which results in a Bargain Rating of 97 percent.
Power Forward
Studs
PF is pretty loaded on today’s slate, but the top value likely depends on which site you’re playing on. It’s hard to look past LaMarcus Aldridge on DraftKings, where he currently has a Bargain Rating of 98 percent. He’s been the focal point of the Spurs offense all season with Kawhi Leonard barely playing and has a wonderful matchup today with the Philadelphia 76ers. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.09, and while the Spurs’ implied team total of 102.0 points seems low, it does represent an increase when compared to their season average.
On FanDuel, Blake Griffin seems like the underpriced option at the top. He has a Bargain Rating of 86 percent, albeit in a much tougher matchup against the Memphis Grizzlies. He leads all PFs on FanDuel with 12 Pro Trends.
Of course, you could always just pay all the way up for Anthony Davis, who appears to be in a great spot against the Houston Rockets. No one at the position is projected to play more than his 38 minutes, and his average of 1.36 fantasy points per minute over the past month ranks first as well. The Pelicans own the fourth highest implied team total of the day at 111.25 points and they’ve won seven of their last eight games.
Value
Ed Davis has been a nice source of value recently for the Portland Trail Blazers, exceeding salary-based expectations in four straight games. He has a wonderful matchup today with the Dallas Mavericks, who have been the worst rebounding team in the league. There’s also a chance Al-Farouq Aminu could spend some extra time at the SF spot today with Evan Turner ruled out, which could open up some more minutes for Davis.
Fast Break
Kyle Kuzma has been extremely impressive as a rookie, however his playing time has waned a bit of late. That said, he still looks like a solid value on FanDuel, where his $5,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98 percent. He’s averaged 0.89 fantasy points per minute this season and is currently projected for 28.1 minutes in our NBA Models.
Center
Stud
As usual, the majority of the center options are better values today on DraftKings, especially at the top of the pricing spectrum. DeMarcus Cousins has a Bargain Rating of 95 percent for his matchup with the Rockets, which results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.95. He also leads all players with 14 Pro Trends. Centers with a comparable number of Pro Trends have historically been excellent values:
Cousins showed his immense upside just two games ago, where he posted a Wilt Chamberlain like stat line on his way to 103.5 DraftKings points.
Value
If Tristan Thompson moves into the starting lineup as expected, he’s almost undoubtedly underpriced across the industry. He’s averaged 0.87 fantasy points per minute over the past month and is currently projected for 26.1 minutes. That kind of production would make him one of the better values of the day at $3,600 on FanDuel and DraftKings.
Fast Break
Dwight Howard is another underpriced center option on DraftKings, owning a Bargain Rating of 98 percent. He also has an outstanding matchup against the Atlanta Hawks, who have been one of the worst teams against centers over the course of the season. This is technically a #RevengeGame for Howard, although I’m not sure if you can really have revenge games when you’ve played for roughly a quarter of the teams in the league.
Good luck!
Photo via Sam Sharpe-USA TODAY Sports
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
