The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a five-game slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Studs
Today’s slate only features 10 teams but doesn’t lack for star power. The PG position is headlined by Russell Westbrook, who was able to do whatever he liked in his last outing against the Cleveland Cavaliers. He shouldn’t find things much more difficult today against the Brooklyn Nets. The Thunder’s implied team total of 111.5 ranks second on the slate and Westbrook has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.56 on FanDuel. He’s averaged a ridiculous 1.63 fantasy points per minute over the past month and leads all PGs with 12 Pro Trends.
While no one can match the combination of safety and upside provided by Westbrook, both Steph Curry and Kyrie Irving could be slightly better values today on FanDuel. Each player has a Bargain Rating of at least 93 percent and both players have merits of their own. The Warriors are implied for 120.25 points at home. Curry has historically provided a lot of value with a comparable implied team total:
That said, they are massive 14-point favorites, so a blowout is definitely a possibility.
Irving, meanwhile, is in a solid spot against the Los Angeles Lakers. The Celtics’ implied team total of 106.75 doesn’t jump off the page like the Warriors’ total, but it does represent an increase of more than four points when compared to their season average. The Lakers have played at one of the fastest paces in the league, giving Irving and the rest of the Celtics one of the strongest pace differentials (paceDs) on the slate at +5.4.
Value
The Spurs are going to be pretty shorthanded tonight, with Pau Gasol joining Kawhi Leonard, Manu Ginobili, and Rudy Gay on the inactive list. They also have a dream matchup against the Cavaliers, who just gave up 148 points in regulation in their last outing and have been a nightmare defensively for the majority of the season. This is a team you’re probably going to want some exposure to.
One candidate is Dejounte Murray, who recently replaced Tony Parker in the Spurs’ starting lineup. Murray has been really solid on per-minute basis, averaging 1.06 FanDuel points per minute over the past month and playing at least 26 minutes in back-to-back games. He’s also seen the largest usage increase on the team with all four of the Spurs’ inactives off the court this season:
He should be one of the most popular value options of the day.
Fast Break
There’s a strong chance that George Hill will not play tonight with the Kings playing on the second leg of a back-to-back and management actively shopping him in trades. That would result in a nice chunk of playing time for De’Aaron Fox, who has averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.61 on DraftKings over his last 10 games. He has quite possibly the best matchup of the day against the Orlando Magic, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.96.
Shooting Guard
Stud
There really is no true stud SG on today’s slate, with not a single option priced above $7,000 on FanDuel:
Jordan Clarkson has posted two monster games in a row, but his role figures to diminish with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Brandon Ingram both getting healthier. Evan Fournier has been in good recent form, scoring at least 29.5 FanDuel points in four of his last five games. That said, he has a brutal matchup today with the Sacramento Kings, whose snail-like pace results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of -2.01. It looks like a day to pay down at the position.
Value
Danny Green has not been asked to play many minutes recently but has one of the top matchups of the day against the Cavaliers. So far this season, no one has allowed a higher average Plus/Minus to opposing wings than Cleveland:
Green has averaged 0.78 fantasy points per minute over the past month, so he shouldn’t need to play a ton to have a chance to return value at his current $4,600 salary on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Tim Hardaway Jr. and Buddy Hield feature two of the largest pricing discrepancies of the day regardless of position. THJ looks like a value on FanDuel, where his $5,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99 percent. He played 29.5 minutes in his last game, which is an encouraging sign for his potential playing time in today’s contest. He’s averaged 1.10 fantasy points per minute over the past month and leads all SGs with 11 Pro Trends on FanDuel.
Hield, meanwhile, has a Bargain Rating of 98 percent on DraftKings, making him one of the stronger plays at the position over there. He’s scored at least 28.25 DraftKings points in three of his last four games and could see a slight uptick in playing time with the Kings potentially resting their veterans.
Small Forward
Studs
The top of the SF position features a pair of players whose stock has fallen drastically of late in LeBron James and Kevin Durant. Both players have seen a salary decrease of at least $1,000 over the past month on FanDuel. Neither player has averaged a positive Plus/Minus over their last 10 games.
Let’s start with LeBron. He’s been especially poor of late, averaging a Plus/Minus of -5.37 over his last 10 games. His biggest issue has come from sharing the court with Isaiah Thomas at an increased rate. LeBron has seen both his usage and assist rate plummet when on the floor with him, resulting in an average of 11.5 fewer fantasy points per 36 minutes:
Things should improve between the duo moving forward, but it seems unlikely that happens today against the elite defense of the San Antonio Spurs. They rank second in the league in defensive efficiency and LeBron has an Opponent Plus/Minus of -2.28 on FanDuel.
Durant isn’t facing the same type of daunting task as LeBron, but his salary still seems a bit high after peaking without Curry. At $10,500 on DraftKings, Durant has historically struggled to pay off a comparable price tag:
That said, he does have a much more appealing matchup today against the Knicks, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.30 on DraftKings. Durant is also currently projected for lower ownership than LeBron on both FanDuel and DraftKings, which makes him the more appealing target for those paying up at the position.
Value
Kyle Anderson is entrenched as the Spurs SF with Leonard out indefinitely and has responded with back-to-back big games in his last two outings. He’s been effective all season, averaging 0.89 fantasy points per minute on FanDuel. He played 34 minutes in the Spurs’ last game given all their injuries and should have a chance to see similar action today in a wonderful matchup with the Cavs.
Fast Break
With the news that Kristaps Porzingis will miss today’s contest, Michael Beasley moves into elite play territory. So far this season, Beasley has crushed in six games with KP out of the lineup, averaging 38.62 DraftKings points per 36 minutes.
He’s extremely appealing on FanDuel, where his $4,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98 percent.
Jaylen Brown has been priced down to $5,500 on FanDuel, giving him a Bargain Rating of 98 percent. His production has been a bit up and down recently, but he has exceeded salary-based expectations in three of his last four games on FanDuel.
Power Forward
Stud
LaMarcus Aldridge is in a prime spot today against the Cavs. He’s led the team with a usage rate of 32.8 percent with Gasol, Leonard, Gay and Ginobili off the court this season. He’s converted that usage into an average of 43.17 DraftKings points per 36 minutes:
The Cavs have unsurprisingly struggled with opposing PFs this season, rewarding Aldridge with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.10. He’s going to be difficult to avoid on DraftKings, where his $8,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95 percent.
Value
Sticking with the Spurs theme, look for Davis Bertans to see some extra minutes with Gasol out of the lineup today. He’s been pretty effective this season, averaging 0.79 fantasy points per minute. He’s currently priced at just $3,600 on FanDuel. He’s shown his ceiling recently, going for 38.5 FanDuel points against the Kings earlier this month.
Fast Break
Skal Labissiere has played at least 28 minutes in each of his last three games, which makes sense given that the Kings are nowhere near close to contending this season. If he’s going to play that much moving forward, Labissiere is almost undoubtedly underpriced at $4,400 on DraftKings. He has a Bargain Rating of 98 percent and has averaged 0.94 fantasy points per minute over the past month.
Sacramento has really struggled to rebound the ball this season, currently ranking 26th in terms of rebound rate. That could make Aaron Gordon an intriguing contrarian option for GPPs. Most people will likely pay all the way up for Aldridge or save salary with the value options, but Gordon has as much upside as anyone at the position.
Center
Stud
Willie Cauley-Stein has been a beast recently, scoring at least 30.5 DraftKings points in four of his last five games. He’s been playing all the minutes he can handle as well, with the only exceptions coming when Sacramento can’t keep the game competitive. He’s a better value today on DraftKings, where his $6,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
Value
Enes Kanter is in an interesting spot today against the Golden State Warriors. On one hand, the Knicks could fall behind early or Kanter could get run off the court by the Warriors’ small lineup, which definitely makes him a bit riskier than normal. On the other hand, if he can stay on the court, he should have no problems piling up points and rebounds on the interior. The fact that Porzingis and Kyle O’Quinn will both miss the contest should only increase his chances of playing big minutes today.
Fast Break
Steven Adams has arguably the best matchup of the day at the center position against the Brooklyn Nets. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.67 on DraftKings and Adams has scored at least 36.25 DraftKings points in four straight games. The only real concern is that he hasn’t been playing many minutes recently: He’s currently projected for just 29.9 in our NBA Models. Still, he might be worth some exposure on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 93 percent.
Al Horford has been one of the most reliable options at the position on FanDuel, owning a Consistency Rating of 90 percent over the past month. Part of the reason for his consistency is that he’s almost always underpriced. He has a Bargain Rating of 86 percent once again on today’s slate. He also has a strong matchup against the Lakers, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.17.
Good luck!
Photo via Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
News Updates
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