Let’s get to it.
Phoenix Suns at Charlotte Hornets (-12.5)
Implied Total: 97.5 – 110, O/U: 207.5
As 12.5-point favorites, exposure towards Charlotte is certainly warranted, if not mandatory. And seeing how Phoenix has allowed the most DraftKings points to off-ball guards over their last 10 games, Nicolas Batum should be considered an elite tournament option – he remains more valuable at FanDuel where 1) we’re forced to play two shooting guards anyways, and 2) he has a Bargain Rating of 95%. Marvin Williams is also a viable option as he’s averaged 35.9 DraftKings points over his last five games. Despite having the third-highest projected floor among point guards, however, even Kemba Walker is considered a stronger tournament play than cash as there’s certainly blowout potential here.
With Kris Humphries officially waived, Phoenix’s frontcourt found somewhat of an identity in starting Alex Len alongside Tyson Chandler – the former, in being a stretch five, logged the third-most minutes for the Suns, finishing with a team-high 50 (not a mistype) DraftKings points. We’ll certainly receive word on their starting unit prior to tip-off, but both Len and Mirza Teletovic – a 99% Bargain Rating at FanDuel – should already be in your cash lineups. Phoenix’s backcourt, unfortunately, remains a disaster as Ronnie Price (expected to start) took a backseat to Archie Goodwin (who they’ve supposedly been wanting to feature more at shooting guard) in their last game. No thanks.
Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat (-5.5)
Implied Total: 97.8 – 103.3, O/U: 201
Hassan Whiteside has seen an increase in salary for the sixth consecutive game, but no matter: he’s exceeded expectations by +16.13 points off the bench in his last five performances. Even in being implied to score 36.89 points, he’s considered as strong an option as any in cash and tournaments alike. The same can be said for Luol Deng, who’s exceeded expectations by +15.68 points in his last seven games. His Bargain Rating of 95% at FanDuel remains perfectly acceptable in cash (unlike his price at DraftKings, which is an additional +$500).
Although E’Twaun Moore remains absurdly underpriced at FanDuel — $4,400, in comparison to his salary of $5,400 at DraftKings – it’s a horrific spot against Miami, who’s currently limiting opposing point guards to -0.6 points below expectations. Point guard, of course, is where Moore would start if Rose (probable) is ruled out. Exposure in cash should instead be focused towards Pau Gasol, as he’s averaged a whopping 53.7 DraftKings points on a line of 16-16-8.7 in his last three games without Rose. Note his usage rate of 25% in that span is a team high among starters for Chicago. Only the latter would remain a cash play if Rose is active, but exposure should remain limited: the Bulls are implied to score the fewest points in the lowest total of the evening.
Portland Trailblazers (-5.5) at New York Knicks
Implied Total: 106.8 – 101.3, O/U: 208
Okay, world. I’ve learned my lesson: don’t fade Damian Lillard in great matchups. Lillard, for example, has been as consistent as anyone in the last month, averaging 37.8 DraftKings points on a Dud Percentage of 0%. With the Trailblazers favored by a small increment, he’s arguably the top play at his position (contingent on Stephen Curry’s status, of course) as New York has allowed +1.6 points above expectations to opposing point guards.
Although it would be nice to target Portland’s backcourt, Aaron Afflalo should be considered more ‘probable’ than not, as he participated in Monday’s practice fully. Just in case, note Langston Galloway has averaged 24.9 DraftKings points on 28.6 minutes in nine starts for Afflalo this season. At this time, Carmelo Anthony is the only strong cash play for New York as his projected floor of 28.4 points towers over all other small forwards in this slate by at least 10 points.
Orlando Magic at Dallas Mavericks (-5.5)
Implied Total: 103.8 – 109.3, O/U: 213
With Evan Fournier (doubtful) ruled out for their last game, Mario Hezonja(Labs) scored 22.5 DraftKings points in 27.2 minutes in his first spot start of the year. Given his lowly implied total of 14.81 points, he’s a viable cash option as long as Fournier misses his second consecutive game. No matter Fournier’s status at tip-off, Victor Oladipo, Aaron Gordon, and Nikola Vucevic are yet again elite cash plays, as each are rated in the top two among their positions in our Phan Model. Elfrid Payton, who logged 32.7 minutes without Fournier, would remain strictly a tournament play as long as Orlando uses the same starting five as last game. I realize that seems like a hell of a lot of Magic in your lineups, but note this total has already risen four points since its initial open.
In his last two games, David Lee has averaged 1.30 DraftKings points per minute, essentially cutting Zaza Pachulia’s minutes in half. Still tagged with an implied total of only 17.11 points, Lee remains a terrific tournament play at DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 86%. Additionally, the Magic have allowed +0.8 points above salary-based expectations at his position. Wes Matthews deserves the same type of consideration at FanDuel, where he’s implied to score only 15.74 points — Matthews has averaged the second-most 3-pointers of anyone in the league in his last three games and now opposes an Orlando defense allowing +0.7 points above expectations at his position.
Atlanta Hawks at Golden State Warriors (-10)
Implied Total: 105 – 115, O/U: 220
The most significant news of the day remains Stephen Curry’s status, which as it stands now, is questionable. If you recall, Draymond Green averaged a line of 10.5-10-10 in the two games Curry missed earlier this season. Although Shaun Livingston, who recorded 23.1 DraftKings points on a usage of 19.4% in that span, would certainly start for Curry, Green would be the stronger cash play as his projected floor of 25.9 points (highest among power forwards) opposes a Hawks defense allowing +2.9 points above expectations at his position. Ian Clark would be the fallback tournament option (especially if Andre Iguodala were ruled out), as he was used for 24.8 minutes off the bench without Curry.
In their last matchup against Golden State two weeks ago, Al Horford scored 69.5 DraftKings points in 39.4 minutes. Considering this total remains the highest of the evening, I would look to roster Horford even above Paul Millsap, as the Warriors have an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.5 points at the latter’s position. Horford is much easier to roster at DraftKings where his salary implies he need only score 32.29 points in order to return value.
Brooklyn Nets at Los Angeles Lakers (-2)
Implied Total: 105 – 107, O/U: 212
Despite this game having the third-highest implied total of the evening, there are quite a few underwhelming plays that are somehow simultaneously amazing. For starters, the Lakers have the highest Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to centers in tonight’s slate. That keeps Brook Lopez, who includes a Bargain Rating of 97% at DraftKings, in his usual territory of cash eligibility. Thaddeus Young also remains a terrific option as his 10 Pro Trends are the most among power forwards. Even Bojan Bogdanovic, priced at the absolute minimum at FanDuel, can be used despite his 0.68 DraftKings points per minute as a starter, as Los Angeles has allowed +1.4 points above expectations at his position. And don’t sleep on Donald Sloan, who’s exceeded expectations by +7.30 points in his last eight performances.
As for the Lakers, D’Angelo Russell’s recent hike in salary – from $4,900 to $5,600 in only two games – is still considered a bargain as he’s exceeded expectations by +8.25 points in their starting unit. Although Julius Randle has struggled lately, he should be weighed equivalently at FanDuel where he holds a Bargain Rating of 86%. Note the Lakers have allowed +1.8 points above expectations at his position.
Good luck!
