The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a four-game slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Stud
James Harden is expected to make his return today for the Houston Rockets, which means that Chris Paul’s time as the lead dog is coming to an end. That said, it might make sense to fire him up one more time in today’s game with the Minnesota Timberwolves. His matchup against Jeff Teague is far superior to Harden’s with Jimmy Butler, where Harden is rumored to be limited to just 25 minutes. He’s a better value today on DraftKings, where his $9,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97 percent.
Value
Isaiah Thomas played 32 minutes in Cleveland’s last game against the Warriors but has yet to show the same form that made him an MVP candidate last season with the Celtics. His fantasy output has decreased from 1.25 fantasy points per minute to just 0.81 fantasy points per minute this season, albeit over just 140 total minutes. It’s unclear if he’s still recovering from his injury or just adjusting to his new teammates, but both Thomas and the Cavs have clearly struggled with him on the court so far this season.
Today’s matchup with the Magic could be a chance to change all that. The Magic have been the worst team in the league against PGs by a wide margin this season, resulting in a ridiculous Opponent Plus/Minus of +7.25 for Thomas on DraftKings. If he can approach the 30 minute barrier again today – he’s currently projected for 29.8 in our NBA Models – he should have a good shot at returning value across the industry.
Fast Break
JJ Redick will miss today’s contest with a leg injury and T.J. McConnell figures to be one of the primary beneficiaries. He’s averaged 0.89 fantasy points per minute over the past month on DraftKings, so any additional playing time could result in a big fantasy day.
The Celtics PG situation could be an important one to monitor throughout the day. Both Kyrie Irving (shoulder) and Marcus Smart (illness) are questionable for today’s contest. Their absences would likely make Terry Rozier one of the chalkiest value options of the day. He’s historically been a really reliable option when projected for 24-30 minutes of playing time:
Shooting Guard
Stud
If you’re going to pay up for an elite SG today, DraftKings seems like the place to do it. Among the six priciest options, all but Harden have a Bargain Rating of at least 86 percent:
Jimmy Butler stands out as having the best combination of salary and matchup. He’s been underpriced on DraftKings for the majority of the season, with today’s contest representing the 19th time he’s had a Bargain Rating of at least 98 percent. Unsurprisingly he’s done quite well in those games:
Butler also has a wonderful matchup today against the Houston Rockets, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.42.
Value
Evan Fournier seems like he could be heating up, scoring at least 33.3 FanDuel points in two of his last three games. He has an excellent chance to build upon those numbers today against the Cleveland Cavaliers, who currently rank 28th in the league in defensive efficiency. They’ve been particularly weak against opposing SGs, allowing the highest average Plus/Minus to the position by a wide margin:
Fast Break
Andrew Wiggins is in the midst of a pretty good spell at the moment, posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.30 on FanDuel over his past 10 games:
In fact, he’s been a reliable option over the past month in general, posting a perfect 100 percent Consistency Rating on FanDuel. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.83 today against the Rockets.
Dwyane Wade could be an intriguing target today against the Orlando Magic. The Magic have been almost as bad as the Cavs at defending opposing SGs, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.19 for Wade on FanDuel. He’s also been one of the few Cavaliers to benefit from Thomas being on the floor this season, albeit in a small sample size:
Small Forward
Stud
LeBron James is in a really interesting spot today. On one hand, the Cavs lead the slate with an implied team total of 119 points, which is a monstrous number for any team outside of Golden State. The Cavs have been implied for 115 points or more just 21 times since LeBron returned, and King James has unsurprisingly smashed in those contests:
He also has a decent individual matchup against the Magic, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.95 on DraftKings. Overall, it seems like a really strong spot.
There are some negative factors we have to consider as well. The first is his salary, which has been jacked up by over $1,000 on FanDuel in anticipation of today’s matchup. LeBron has struggled to pay off his salary of late, posting a Consistency Rating of just 63 percent over the past month, yet his current salary represents an increase of $500 over that time frame. It’s much more reasonable on DraftKings at $11,300, but that still might be too expensive given his average Plus/Minus of -4.75 over his last 10 games.
The biggest reason for his poor play has been the increased presence of Thomas, who continues to cut into his workload. He’s seen a usage decrease of 7.8 percent and averaged 6.5 fewer DraftKings points per 36 minutes when sharing the court with IT this season:
Given that Thomas and LeBron only figure to play together more as the season progresses, that’s an issue. Their chemistry should eventually improve, but it does make today’s matchup with the Magic riskier than it appears on paper.
Value
Trevor Ariza will be suspended for today’s contest after reportedly trying to get into the Clippers’ locker room through a secret tunnel. The NBA – it’s where amazing happens. He’ll need to be replaced in the starting lineup, and the most logical candidate to fill that role is P.J. Tucker. He’s been dreadful of late, averaging just 0.56 fantasy points per minute over the past month, but that doesn’t change the fact that he’s priced near the minimum across the industry and has the potential to play 30+ minutes.
Fast Break
Jaylen Brown leads the position with a Bargain Rating of 86 percent on FanDuel and has exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his last 10 games. He has a solid matchup against the 76ers, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.55, and could see some extra offensive responsibilities if Irving and/or Smart miss today’s contest.
Power Forward
Stud
PF seems like a position where most people will pay down today, which increases the appeal of a guy like Aaron Gordon for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). He has one of the best matchups of the day regardless of position, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.97 on DraftKings against the Cavaliers. It’s always hard to trust Gordon – he’s posted a Consistency Rating of just 68 percent over the past year – but he has played 38.5 minutes in back-to-back games. That much playing time today could result in a really big performance.
Value
Dario Saric has been priced down to $5,300 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 98 percent for today’s contest with the Celtics. Saric has historically smashed with a comparable salary when projected for at least 30 minutes of playing time:
Unfortunately, it isn’t a great matchup for Saric, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of -1.62.
Fast Break
Myles Turner will remain out for the Indiana Pacers, which means that Domantas Sabonis should earn another start. He hasn’t met value in each of his last two games, but he’s played limited minutes with the Pacers winning each game by at least 15 points. He has a strong matchup today with the Portland Trail Blazers, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.15.
Taj Gibson’s minutes have been a bit volatile recently, but he did play 38 in his most recent contest. He has a solid matchup today with the Rockets, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.98.
Center
Studs
Joel Embiid ranks third in the league with a usage rate of 33.1 percent and could be in a position to increase that mark today. No one on the 76ers has seen a larger usage increase with Redick off the floor than Embiid:
He’s particularly appealing on DraftKings, where his $9,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
Karl-Anthony Towns might be the more appealing option on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 68 percent. That number doesn’t sound all that impressive, but it’s a big increase when compared to the rest of the high-priced centers:
He also has a better matchup than Embiid against the Houston Rockets, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.29.
Value
Nene is expected to return tonight for the Rockets, which should result in a slightly reduced role for Clint Capela. That said, Capela has been priced down to just $6,700 on DraftKings and he’s been a solid value this season with a comparable price tag:
Capela also has an elite matchup against Towns, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.49.
Fast Break
It’s hard to discount what Bismack Biyombo has done recently, scoring at least 45 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. He remains affordable on DraftKings, where his $6,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99 percent. Facing the Cavs results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.14.
Finally, Al Horford could be worthy of some consideration if both Irving and Smart miss today’s contest. He’s seen a massive 14.3 percent bump in usage with both players off the court, granted over a sample size of just 66 minutes.
Good luck!
Photo via Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports
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