Identifying value is paramount to success in NBA DFS. If we want to be able to roster the high-floor/high-ceiling premium players like Russell Westbrook, Steph Curry and others, concessions – in the form of low priced players – need to be made. Lucky for us, value is constantly popping up due the nature of the NBA. Whether it be injuries, rest or rotational changes, it is not uncommon to find players thrust into more meaningful roles on a regular basis in this league. When such changes occur, daily fantasy sites generally won’t have the ability to update the player’s pricing to reflect their new role and playing time and this is where we find our value.
At FantasyLabs, we like to take things one step further. Not only will we be identifying players based upon their expected fantasy output in relation to their price, we’ll be incorporating our Bargain Rating into the equation whenever possible as well. If you’re unfamiliar with this metric, I recommend taking a look at this short video from our co-founder Jonathan Bales on how he uses this rating within our Player Models tool.
Please note, this article is written earlier in the day. As much of the news surrounding the NBA breaks near tip off, please monitor our Player News page for all relevant updates.
Point Guard
Emmanuel Mudiay – $5,200
Mudiay has struggled a bit after a nice run in mid February. Despite his somewhat erratic play, he’s back on our radar due to a significant price drop – $700 in the past week – and Danilo Gallinari’s injury.
With Gallinari out, we should see some additional usage available for the incumbent starters, primarily due to the presumed decision to keep Will Barton coming off of the bench. With low-usage options in JaKarr Sampson and Darrell Arthur the likely candidates to move into the starting role, there’s going to be additional shots and opportunities up for grabs.
A situation like this is a prime spot to take advantage of an injury, albeit in a roundabout way. The presumed beneficiary on this team will be Barton, and while he is likely to the primary beneficiary, he’s not going to be the only one. Gallinari was a key cog in this starting offensive unit and his production will be missed. Mudiay and Kenneth Faried stand out as the likeliest players to pick up that slack whenever Barton isn’t on the floor tonight.
Shooting Guard
Will Barton – $5,600
As we just spoke about above, Barton is likely to be the primary beneficiary of Galinari’s injury, as he should be set for a boost in playing time and usage.
During Gallinari’s six game absence in December, we saw Barton thrive in a bigger role, posting a ridiculous Plus/Minus of +8.01.
The best part about all of this? Barton was playing really well back in December and had saw his price jump up to the $7,000 range. This time around, we’ll have the opportunity to roster him at a mere $5,600 – which gives him a respectable Bargain Rating of 66% on DraftKings (DK).
So the price is right, the opportunity is there, is there anything stopping us from going all in on Barton tonight? Unfortunately there is – to a degree at least.
Though Barton is listed as a shooting guard on DK, he’s actually likely to spend the majority (if not all) of his time at small forward without Gallinari around. On the season, he’s spent only 16% of his time at shooting guard without Gallinari in the lineup. I’d expect more of the same tonight, as Gary Harris will be line line to log heavy minutes as usual at shooting guard. This will offer Barton a slight reprieve, as Memphis is better defensively against opposing two-guards than they are against small forwards.
The Plus/Minus of +2.45 is middle of the pack, however that is world’s better than their Plus/Minus of -0.18 against opposing shooting guards.
The opportunity and price are there for Barton tonight, which will likely result in fairly high – but warranted – ownership percentage.
Small Forward
Trevor Ariza – $5,800
Ariza’s price has dropped $400 over the past couple of weeks, despite his production beginning to pick back up again.
The Rockets’ matchup with the Bucks is set for the second-highest total of the night and with a spread of only 2.5 points, it should be close throughout. Ariza is currently projected to log over 37 minutes in tonight’s matchup – all nightly projections can be found on our Player Models page, for every relevant player – a total that should be reasonably attainable based upon the projected spread of this evening’s game.
This projection is something to monitor for Ariza, as he’s had a lot of success whenever we’ve projected him to see at least 37 minutes so far this season. Turning to our Trends tool, we can see that while Ariza has only hit value on 50% of these occasions, he’s had some really big games that have resulted in a Plus/Minus of +8.21.
Power Forward
Serge Ibaka – $6,000
Ibaka is coming off of a really nice game Saturday night and unfortunately his price has adjusted accordingly. There isn’t a ton of value under $6,000 at the power forward position for cash games this evening, but I think Ibaka is a really interesting tournament option.
Priced a few hundred dollars lower than Jabari Parker, we should see Parker pull away a lot of Ibaka’s potential ownership, as players correctly attempt to exploit a Houston defense that has struggled guarding opposing power forwards all season.
Ibaka should be able to take advantage of a Kings team that is allowing the most blocks per game to opposing power forwards this year and is near the top in terms of fantasy production allowed overall as well. Though Parker is likely the better play, Ibaka offers an interesting pivot off of him.
Center
Jahlil Okafor – $6,100
Okafor will have a second chance to take on a Wizards team that he put up 33 DK points on just a few days ago.
In general this season, Okafor has found success against teams with a positive Opponent Plus/Minus rating, which Washington has. Once again utilizing our Trends tool, we can see that while the Consistency rating is lacking a bit, the Plus/Minus of +3.92 is certainly exploitable.
His production and playing time scream tournament play, as he’s just been too erratic to consider in cash this evening.
