*Updates:
- With Kyle Lowry now ruled out, Cory Joseph has a Rating of 83.91 in our Phan Model, second-highest among point guards. With a slate-high Projected Plus/Minus of +12.4, he’s considered an elite cash play at his position.
- Evan Fournier will miss his first game of the season. Although Mario Hezonja, announced as starter for Fournier, is implied to score only 12.97 points, he should have more exposure at DraftKings where he has a Bargain Rating of 86%. This news doesn’t effect Aaron Gordon (82.57) or Nikola Vucevic (89.1) as both remain Rated the highest amongst their respective positions. Note that Victor Oladipo has a Rating +2.19 higher than Hezonja.
- Robert Covington is expected to see the largest uptick without Hollis Thompson available in today’s game. Opposing a Magic defense allowing +0.7 points above salary-based expectations at his position, Covington is best used at FanDuel where he has an absurd Bargain Rating of 95%. His Rating of 85.79 in our Phan Model trails Tobias Harris (87.6) and Luol Deng (86.14) among small forwards.
Let’s do this.
Cleveland Cavaliers (-2.5) at Washington Wizards
Implied Total: 104.5 – 102, O/U: 207
With LeBron James having been ruled out, forget Kyrie Irving’s horrid last performance and reload him once more: not only does Washington have an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.6 allowed at the point, but Irving has recorded a team-high usage rate of 39.0 with LeBron off the floor this season. Though he’s implied to score 34.13 points at DraftKings, Irving remains a steal at FanDuel where he has a ridiculous Bargain Rating of 98%. Richard Jefferson should also be considered in cash as he’s implied to score the absolute minimum of points no matter which site you prefer. He logged 38 minutes in the lone game James missed earlier this season.
Although he has a Dud Percentage of only 7% this month, Marcin Gortat should be considered strictly a tournament option as Cleveland has suffocated opposing centers to the tune of -1.8 points below salary-based expectations. The cash play for Washington remains John Wall as he has a Dud Percentage of only 7% in his last 13 games.
Charlotte Hornets at Atlanta Hawks (-4)
Implied Total: 99.3 – 103.3, O/U: 202.5
Charlotte has been a median team in defending opposing centers, allowing +0.3 points above expectations at the position, but Al Horford remains attached to a ridiculous Bargain Rating of 90% at DraftKings. Having exceeded expectations by +20.15 points over his last three games, he’s considered an extremely valuable tournament play as most will likely flock to Karl-Anthony Towns or Andre Drummond at the position. Paul Millsap should also be featured as the top power forward in cash as his projected floor of 26.5 points is +2.0 points greater than the next closest at his position.
I realize he’s spurned all of us several times over the last month (as proven by his Dud Percentage of 40% in that period), but Nicolas Batum is in a terrific spot as Atlanta has allowed +2.4 points above expectations to off-ball guards. Marvin Williams — likely otherworldly exposure given his most recent burst of 48.1 DraftKings points — should remain strictly a tournament play as our models show him with a Projected Plus/Minus of -2.3, lowest of any power forward priced above $5,500.
Toronto Raptors (-1.5) at Detroit Pistons
Implied Total: 101.8 – 100.3, O/U: 202
Toronto has the highest Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to centers in today’s slate, being decimated in the paint for +3.5 points above salary-based expectations. With 11 Pro Trends (tied for first among his position), Andre Drummond is once again an elite play in both cash and tournaments. Though he’ll likely have a bit more exposre in GPPs due to his performance of 15-17 just yesterday, note that he has yet to score less than one-half his implied total at any point this month. His average of 43.1 DraftKings points in that span is actually an additional +5.5 points greater than what Towns has averaged in that span.
If DeMar DeRozan (questionable) were ruled out prior to tip-off, Cory Joseph would become a shoe-in for cash lineups as he’s averaged the most minutes for Toronto with DeRozan off the court. If the latter suits up, Kyle Lowry would remain the only cash play for Toronto. Note that his projected floor of 27.3 trails only John Wall and Damian Lillard among point guards.
Portland Trailblazers at Indiana Pacers (-4.5)
Implied Total: 102.3 – 106.8, O/U: 208.5
Myles Turner includes a Bargain Rating of 93% at FanDuel, but Portland has limited opposing power forwards to -1.1 points below expectations. Despite the value in salary, it remains tough to roster Turner as there are those priced similarly with better matchups/projections (Gorgui Dieng and Aaron Gordon for instance). He’s still viable in tournaments, where as Paul George – highest projected floor among small forwards in tonight’s five-game Main slate – should be used in cash as he’s exceeded expectations by +14.19 points in his last three performances.
If seeking out tournament plays for Portland, look no further than Mason Plumlee, who’s exceeded expectations by +8.65 points in his last five games. Averaging 26.3 minutes in that span, it’s a terrific spot for any center that Terry Stotts chooses to play as Indiana has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.6 at the position.
Philadelphia 76ers at Orlando Magic (-10)
Implied Total: 100.8 – 110.8, O/U: 211.5
I’m going to forego suggesting any Philadelphia players in cash as Orlando should be the focus here. For instance, he may have failed to meet expectations by -12.31 points in his last performance, but Evan Fournier remains a top cash option at his position. Considering his Bargain Rating of 97% at FanDuel, he should actually be used first in lineup construction for Orlando as his Rating in our Phan Model is the highest among off-ball guards. Having said that, the remaining lot of Victor Oladipo (trails only Fournier in Rating among shooting guards), Aaron Gordon (exceeded expectations by +8.80 points in his last 10 games), and Nikola Vucevic are all weighed equivalently in terms of cash games.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Dallas Mavericks (-7)
Implied Total: 103.5 – 110.5, O/U: 214
If looking for a tournament play, there’s arguably no better value than David Lee on today’s slate. Implied to score only 14.81 points, Lee appears to be spelling both Dirk Nowitzki and Zaza Pachulia as a featured part of Dallas’ new rotation. With Minnesota allowing +3 points above expectations to power forwards (and +1.8 in the instances he rotates to center), Lee’s Bargain Rating of 95% at DraftKings is almost a must.
It’s certainly worrisome that Gorgui Dieng logged 38 minutes just last night, but it’s again a terrific spot as Dallas has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.6 at his position. Both he and Karl-Anthony Towns are elite cash options for one more evening as both have a Rating in the top-two in our Phan Model at their respective positions.
Miami Heat (-1) at New York Knicks
Implied Total: 99.5 – 98.5, O/U: 198
The Knicks have a minuscule Opponent Plus/Minus of +0.1 allowed to centers, but Hassan Whiteside should be considered in cash no matter: he’s exceeded expectations by +18.98 points in his last four games, averaging 50.8 DraftKings points in that span. Luol Deng is as strong an option, as well, as he’s accumulated a line of 16.8-12.3-2.5 in that same period.
Despite this game having the lowest implied total of the day, Carmelo Anthony’s Bargain Rating of 90% remains an option in any format. Outside of his poor performance when defended by Paul George – he failed to meet expectations by -8.56 points that evening against the Pacers – Anthony has exceeded expectations by +10.94 points in his previous five games. Given his median Dud Percentage of 50% over his last 12 performances, however, teammate Kristaps Porzingis is considered more of a tournament play – the Heat have allowed +2.5 points above salary-based expectations at his position.
Good luck!
