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Positional Breakdowns
Quarterback
Matt Ryan snapped his five-game postseason streak with at least 250 yards and multiple touchdown passes against the Rams last week. This week’s matchup against the Eagles’ fifth- and seventh-ranked defense in overall and pass DVOA won’t be any easier. A pass rush consisting of five players graded among PFF’s top-30 interior and edge defenders at getting after the quarterback is especially concerning. The Falcons’ eighth-ranked offensive line in adjusted-sack rate has done a great job keeping Ryan clean all season, but the slate’s second-toughest matchup in DraftKings points allowed above salary-based expectation to quarterbacks has him ranked fifth at his position in both projected ceiling and floor.
Running Back
Jay Ajayi’s implementation into the Eagles backfield hasn’t been seamless, but his average of 5.8 yards per carry demonstrates his ceiling without Jay Cutler under center. Corey Clement and LeGarrette Blount are expected to continue to remain involved, but they took a backseat down the stretch as neither back reached double-digit touches in Weeks 14-16. The Eagles appear ready to feature one of just four backs to ever notch three or more games of 200-plus rushing yards in a single season.
Wide Receiver
Despite his inability to find the end zone, the Titans have continued to feed Corey Davis the ball ahead of their other options during his 11 games this season. Davis’ 64 targets surpass Rishard Matthews (51), Eric Decker (59), and are barely behind Delanie Walker (73). Davis may not have the NFL production of his teammates in the wide receiver room, but his targets have reflected that of a No. 1 receiver.
Tight End
It’s unfortunate that he will be without starting quarterback Carson Wentz (knee), but Zach Ertz and Nick Foles have an established connection from their early days in Philadelphia under former head coach Chip Kelly. Ertz saw 31.5 percent of Foles total pass attempts in Week 15 and Week 16 and is a market share monster. Over his past 20 outings, he has turned 170 targets into a wide receiver-like stat line of 117/1,306/11. He finished as a top-20 PPR scorer out of all tight ends and wide receivers this year with the 17th highest target share (23.0 percent) and will face an Atlanta team with a middling 14th-ranked DVOA to the position.
Everything Else You Need To Know
Derrick Henry is clearly the Titans’ guy now that DeMarco Murray is out: Over the past two weeks, Henry has received 96.6 and 100.0 percent of their rushes. He turned his 28 touches last week against the Chiefs into 156 yards and a touchdown. Now he gets a Patriots defense that has been atrocious against the run this season, ranking 30th in rush DVOA. Of course, Henry will have to deal with potentially awful game script as a 13.5-point road dog, but he had a similar issue last week as well. Could he crush as a contrarian dog yet again? Read more market share notes in this week’s piece.
The Jags-Steelers game is intriguing. In Week 5 in Pittsburgh the Jags pounded the Steelers 30-9 even though ‘quarterback’ Blake Bortles had just 95 yards and an interception on 8-of-14 passing. The defense was in peak form as quarterback Ben Roethlisberger threw five interceptions and running back Le’Veon Bell was held to 47 yards rushing. Wide receiver Antonio Brown (calf) is expected to return to action, but he’ll have a tough matchup against cornerbacks Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye and might not be at full strength. The Steelers are -8.5 home favorites and getting 75 percent of the early spread bets, but the Jags lead the remaining postseason teams with a +6.26 Spread Differential. Read more about trends from this game and the other three divisional matchups in this week’s Vegas Outliers piece.
The Jags have been a strong run funnel defense all year, ranking first (perhaps historically so) against the pass but just 26th against the rush. It would be foolish for the Steelers to try to attack the Jags’ secondary, but as mentioned in the intro of this piece, that’s exactly what they did earlier this season. Did they learn their lesson after Ben Roethlisberger threw five interceptions — or will they yet again ignore their stud RB in Le’Veon Bell, who has essentially had a month to rest up for this game? Read more about how teams may run or pass more than they usually do in the latest Funnel Defense Ratings.
The Saints handily lead the league with 25 touchdowns rushing, and the Vikings defense has the slate’s second-highest rushing market share. Although the Saints — led by Pro-Bowl running backs Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara — were held to just 41 yards rushing in their 31-26 Wild Card victory over the Panthers, they still scored twice on the ground. The Vikings defense is no pushover, ranking second in overall DVOA and fifth against the run, but even if they struggle Ingram and Kamara have the potential to salvage their performances with touchdowns. Given that Ingram leads the team with 12 rushing scores and is the cheaper of the New Orleans backs, he’s a potential pivot play on Kamara in GPPs. Find out the other ways teams might score points this weekend in this Divisional Round Vegas Projections piece.
Photo via Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports.
