The weekly Funnel Defense Ratings uses advanced data to analyze situations in which teams are more likely to pass or run than they usually do. For more of our weekly football content, visit the NFL homepage.
Earlier this season I introduced a new funnel metric; see that piece for the explanation on how I created it. The metric has some hits and misses and there are a couple reasons it’s best thought of as descriptive rather than predictive. First, I don’t incorporate Vegas data (although I’ll include it in the ratings table below), mostly because I don’t have exact numbers on historical run/pass ratios based on Vegas spreads and implied team totals. That’s a large project perhaps for the offseason. Second, and this is important to remember, some teams simply refuse to funnel production to either part of their offense. We saw this with the Steelers in Week 5: Although the opposing Jaguars boasted an elite secondary and were the best against the pass in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), Ben Roethlisberger chucked it 55 times.
I’ve given lots of my thoughts on the pros and cons of this analysis in past pieces and we’ve written about how sometimes coaches suck at coaching football. Instead of yet another rant, let’s dive right into the Divisional Round funnel ratings.
Potential Shootout Games
Two games project to be moderately pass-heavy — Falcons-Eagles and Titans-Patriots — while the other two project to be quite run-heavy. That’s interesting given the totals: The Falcons-Eagles affair has a low 41 total despite having a decent combined pass funnel rating, whereas the Saints-Vikings matchup has a (relatively) high total of 46.5 despite having a high combined run funnel rating. Those are notable not only for DFS but also for speculating on the over/unders.
The Titans-Patriots game has the highest combined pass funnel rating of 60.7, but that’s almost entirely because of the Patriots’ side of things. The more interesting game is the Falcons-Eagles one, as these teams have the second and third highest pass funnel ratings of 57.6 and 60.9, respectively. The Falcons face an Eagles squad that is dominant defensively in both facets, ranking seventh against the pass and third against the rush. Atlanta has been a better pass offense this season and their best weapon remains Julio Jones on the outside. They may not have success in this game offensively, but if they do it will likely be with Matt Ryan and company.
The Eagles are perhaps the most interesting team in the slate. In this week’s NFL Flex podcast, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88) highlighted Nick Foles as a QB he was interested in, especially given his very-low price tag of $5,200 on DraftKings. The Falcons have been solid defensively of late, but their season-long numbers are still uninspiring, as they rank 22nd in total DVOA and 19th against the pass. They rank 25th against both WR1s and WR2s and they’re 21st against pass-catching RBs. That bodes well for Alshon Jeffery, Nelson Agholor and Jay Ajayi. Throw in the position-bending Zach Ertz and you have quite a few options that have GPP-winning value.
Notable Potential Funnels
The Patriots have by far the highest Vegas passing projection of 13.45 points. They have easily the week’s highest pass rating, which combines pass DVOA and pass play percentage. They face a Titans defense that should funnel them into the passing game. Tennessee ranks a respectable seventh against the rush but 24th against the pass. Despite their rushing defense strength they’re literally the worst team in the league against pass-catching backs. Dion Lewis has 12 targets and two receiving touchdowns over the past two games. It’s hard to envision a better scenario for a passing offense than what the Pats have in their first playoff game this season.
And finally, let’s touch on the Steelers-Jags game, as these teams lead the week with run funnel ratings of 67.9 and 68.6, respectively. The Jags have been a strong run funnel defense all year, ranking first (perhaps historically so) against the pass but just 26th against the rush. It would be foolish for the Steelers to try to attack the Jags’ secondary, but as mentioned in the intro of this piece, that’s exactly what they did earlier this season. Did they learn their lesson after Ben Roethlisberger threw five interceptions — or will they yet again ignore their stud RB in Le’Veon Bell, who has essentially had a month to rest up for this game?
Good luck, and research the Divisional Round games for yourself with our Tools and Models.
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Bryan Mears is an editor at FantasyLabs and host of the Daily Fantasy Flex podcast.
Photo via Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
