Updates:
- With Rose now officially out, E’twaun Moore will start at the point. He’s the eighth-highest Rated shooting guard at FanDuel due to his Bargain Rating of 99%.
- Ryan Anderson will start for Anthony Davis in tonight’s game against Minnesota, who has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.8 at his position. He has the highest Rating in our Phan Model among power forwards.
- Jrue Holiday has recorded a team-high usage of 34.8 without Anthony Davis this season. He’s the highest-Rated point guard in our Phan Model.
Let’s get to it.
Miami Heat at Boston Celtics (-5.5)
Implied Total: 107.5 – 102, O/U: 209.5
With an implied total of 211.5, I would lean towards playing only the Main slate rather than the All Day as it makes almost no sense to play this one if your only intentions are to fade it. That would likely mean going head-to-head with Hassan Whiteside, who has exceeded expectations by +20.08 points in his last three performances. Boston also has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.1 allowed at his position (and have given up the fourth-most raw fantasy points to centers over their last five games).
As for other tournament plays (if still wanting a piece of this one), Isaiah Thomas, whose salary has decreased -$200 since his last outing, remains a value at DraftKings where he has a Bargain Rating of 95%. It’s certainly not the best of matchups, but his 10 Pro Trends are currently tied for the most atop his position with Russell Westbrook. Feel free to go back to Jared Sullinger, as well, as he’s exceeded expectations in 90% of his last 10 performances. Miami has allowed +3.0 points above expectations to opposing power forwards (in the instances when he rotates) and +0.9 at center (where he starts).
Minnesota Timberwolves at New Orleans Pelicans (-5)
Implied Total: 107.3 – 112.3, O/U: 219.5
If looking for a game stack outside of Warriors-Thunder, look no further than this one. Not only has Minnesota given up 100-plus points in nine straight, but New Orleans has allowed the most DraftKings points to opposing backcourts over their last five games. Those two caveats alone keep nearly everyone in this matchup as elite cash options. In fact, let’s quickly list them just to ensure we’re all on the same page.
- Forget Karl-Anthony Towns’ most recent performance against the Raptors, a game in which he failed to meet expectations by -14.19 points. It was, after all, the Raptors. His projected floor of 27 points remains the highest among centers in tonight’s slate.
- Minnesota has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.8 allowed to power forwards, and Anthony Davis, despite his $10K price point, has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at his position. Any questions?
- Let’s exclude his game in which he logged only 24.7 minutes (following a night in which he logged 44, mind you) for just one moment. Outside of that performance, Gorgui Dieng has exceeded expectations by +13.04 points in his last six.
- Given that Minnesota has allowed the fourth-highest rate of DraftKings points to off-ball guards over their last five games, it should be noted that Zach LaVine remains absurdly cheap at FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 93%.
- Finally, Jrue Holiday has exceeded expectations by +9.13 points in his last 10 performances. Even with Eric Gordon returning (and starting), note that Holiday has recorded a 26.7% usage rate off the bench alongside Gordon this season.
Portland Trailblazers (-4.5) at Chicago Bulls
Implied Total: 106.8 – 102.3, O/U: 209
I realize E’Twaun Moore still haunts you from last night, but there’s legitimately no better spot for him to bounce back in both cash and tournaments. Despite his 5.7 total DraftKings points scored against Atlanta, Moore still holds a ridiculous Bargain Rating of 99% at FanDuel. In (likely) starting at point guard for an injured Derrick Rose, note that Portland has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.7 at the position. And in the instances where he shares the floor with Aaron Brooks, the Trailblazers have allowed +1.9 points above expectations to opposing off-ball guards. As I said: short memory, and rewind him once more.
Portland has a negative Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to small forwards, but Mike Dunleavy has averaged 26.4 minutes in their last two games without Rose. He’s exceeded expectations by +8.4 points in that span, +8.69 over his last three. Given his 86% Bargain Rating at FanDuel, he’s fine to roster in both cash and tournaments yet again (though note his lowly usage rate of 13.0% over that time). Unlike Dunleavy, however, Pau Gasol should once again be considered an elite cash option as his usage of 24.9% in their last two games qualifies as the highest among Chicago starters. He’s averaged 41.3 DraftKings points on a line of 13-16-6 in those instances.
His last performance of 31.25 DraftKings points might’ve been considered a letdown given his recent surge, but C.J. McCollum has still exceeded expectations by +6.63 points in his last 10 games. With the Bulls allowing +0.7 points above expectations at his position, McCollum should once again be considered a top-three option at his position in cash. The same case could be made for Damian Lillard, who has a demi-God Dud Percentage of 0% over his last 11 games.
San Antonio Spurs at Houston Rockets
The three methods to use at small forward tonight remain 1) Kevin Durant plus a low-priced punt (Bojan Bogdanovic, for instance), 2) a combination of median plays, or 3) Kawhi Leonard. Leonard, for example, has exceeded expectations by +13.34 points in his last five performances, +11.23 since returning from injury. With a cushioned-matchup against a Houston defense allowing +2.0 points above expectations at his position, one could even make an argument for Leonard to be the top play at small forward no matter. Though he’s not as strong of option as Leonard, Tony Parker should also be looked at in any format as he’s logged 30.1 minutes over his last four games.
Even with a Bargain Rating of 97% at DraftKings, getting off Howard against San Antonio is more than viable as they’ve decimated opposing centers for -2.1 points below expectations. James Harden remains a fine tournament option despite their Opponent Plus/Minus of -2.9 at off-ball guard. His 10 Pro Trends lead his position.
Detroit Pistons at Milwaukee Bucks (-1)
Implied Total: 101 – 102, O/U: 203
Although there are quite a few strong cash options in this one, exposure should remain limited as this implied total has sunk -4 points since its initial open. Still, there are no secrets behind the curtains here: Jabari Parker has a 98% Bargain Rating at FanDuel, Giannis Antetokounmpo has exceeded expectations by +14.72 points in his last five, Tobias Harris has averaged 32.5 minutes since debuting with Detroit, and Khris Middleton has the third-highest projected floor among off-ball guards. Have at it.
Golden State Warriors (-3.5) at Oklahoma City Thunder
Implied Total: 118.5 – 115, O/U: 233.5
With the largest implied total in any game since April of 2010, it’s obvious which game you’re stacking if choose to do so. That process clearly begins with both Russell Westbrook and Stephen Curry, although the latter remains in a much more advantageous position – Oklahoma City has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.1 allowed at the point while Golden State has suffocated opposing point guards to -1.3 points below expectations. Still, it should be noted that Westbrook is averaging 50.7 DraftKings points in 10 games this month, +5.3 more than Curry (who’s played one more game than Russ).
There are cheaper options logging equivalent minutes available throughout small forward, but Kevin Durant is the clear-cut No. 1 option if willing to pay up. Along with 11 Pro Trends (most among his position), the Thunder will be playing at a pace differential of +3.2. His Projected Plus/Minus of +7.1 is also +1.7 points greater than the next closest.
The Warriors have allowed the most DraftKings points to centers over their last five games, but considering Steven Adams in cash will only get you so far. He’s still probably worth some exposure as he logged 33.2 minutes in Oklahoma City’s last game against Golden State, finishing with 27.5 DraftKings points. Enes Kanter should only be looked at in tournaments as he’s averaged 18.2 minutes over his last four games.
Memphis Grizzlies (-6.5) at Phoenix Suns
Implied Total: 107 – 100.5, O/U: 207.5
Matt Barnes, Zach Randolph, and Mike Conley are all above-average cash options once again as their price points failed to budge at FanDuel since last night. Although many continue to treat JaMychal Green as such, he remains nothing more than a tournament play as he’s averaged 18.5 DraftKings points in 22.7 minutes over their last three games (or, since the addition of Lance Stephenson, who’s logged 23.8 minutes over that time).
As much as I love Mirza Teletovic’s 98% Bargain Rating at FanDuel, let’s get this out of the way: you’re not point-chasing with him in tournaments. Given that Memphis has limited opposing forwards to -0.7 points below expectations, I would arguably avoid him in cash, as well – his price has increased +$500 since his most recent performance of 47.3 DraftKings points.
Although Ronnie Price dominated the minutes at point guard for Phoenix, logging 37.8 in comparison to the 19.7 Phil Pressey played, both are considered nothing more than tournament plays – note that the latter still has a Bargain Rating of 86% at FanDuel.
Brooklyn Nets at Utah Jazz (-11)
Implied Total: 93.3 – 104.3, O/U: 197.5
Note that Bojan Bogdanovic is still priced lower than $4,000 at both DraftKings and FanDuel. Given his 38.3 minutes (and team-high usage of 25.2%) in Brooklyn’s first game without Joe Johnson, he’s essentially mandatory in cash. Even if he weren’t able to match his prior performance of 8-of-16 shooting, his salary implies he need only score 16.65 points in order to return value. Markel Brown, who scored 22.1 DraftKings points in 24.5 minutes, should also be used in tournaments as he quietly logged the most minutes at shooting guard for Brooklyn without Johnson.
Despite his Bargain Rating of 98% at DraftKings, this matchup against Utah – Opponent Plus/Minus of -1.6 at his position – is likely one where you’re just fine in fading Brook Lopez. Instead, rotate your exposure towards Rudy Gobert in tournaments as the Nets have allowed +2.2 points above expectations to opposing centers. His recent stretch in which he failed to meet expectations by -16.69 points in back-to-back games is all the more reason to roster him as Gobert’s salary has decreased -$600 in only two games.
Shelvin Mack still has a Bargain Rating of 98% at FanDuel, but it’s near-impossible to roster him in cash with such limited upside. It’s admittedly a terrific spot as Brooklyn has allowed +0.8 points above expectations at the point, but his 28 minutes since debuting with Utah should remain reserved more for tournaments than anything else.
Good luck!
