The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features an eight-game slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Stephen Curry has been on an absolute tear of late, culminating in a 63.7-point FanDuel outburst in less than 30 minutes last game versus the Clippers. He had 45 real points in that game, hit eight of his 16 3-point attempts, and went 15-16 from the line. He looks quite healthy and has been the offensive hub for the Warriors again, averaging 50.75 fantasy points per game in the six games without fellow superstar Kevin Durant this season. He has led the team with a 35.2 percent usage rate in those games and the Warriors have averaged 108.51 possessions/48 minutes while he’s been on the floor. Put simply: Steph without KD is a fantasy goldmine. That remains true today, especially on FanDuel, where Steph’s $9,800 price tag comes with a 98 percent Bargain Rating.
Value
Kris Dunn has surprising splits this season: In 14 games versus below .500 teams, he’s averaged a ridiculous +9.14 DraftKings Plus/Minus and has hit value 78.6 percent of the time. In 21 games versus teams .500 or better, he’s averaged a +0.95 Plus/Minus on 61.9 percent Consistency. That is a stark difference, although it’s hard to figure out his matchup today. On the one hand, the Rockets on the season are probably the second-best team in the league behind the Warriors. On the other, they’ve been miserable without James Harden, posting a -0.8 net rating in their three games without him. Even with him, they were in a downswing, posting a -1.7 net rating over their past 10 games. Dunn feasts on struggling teams. Do the Rockets qualify or will they turn things around tonight?
Fast Break
De’Aaron Fox has played 30-plus minutes in the past two games sans George Hill and Frank Mason. He’s done well, posting DraftKings Plus/Minus values of +11.7 and +8.7. Hill is questionable to play tonight; if he doesn’t go, Fox is a value at $4,900 even in a matchup against the Spurs.
Shooting Guard
Stud
As usual, the Clippers are missing approximately 30 players due to injury. As of Monday morning, Milos Teodosic is questionable and Blake Griffin, Austin Rivers, Danilo Gallinari, and Patrick Beverley are out/remain out. They could be without five of their top seven players.Tyrone Wallace, a career G-leaguer, got his first NBA action last game and played 31 minutes. Calling the Clippers thin is a huge understatement. That all bodes well for Lou Williams, who is by far their best offensive player currently. With all of those players off the court this season, he has averaged 1.2 DraftKings points per minute and a team-high 33.9 percent usage rate. That’ll play at $7,900 against a poor Hawks defense.
Value
Avery Bradley has been terrible in his return from injury, missing value in all three games. That said, he’s played 37-40 minutes in two of those three (the other was a blowout) and has a good matchup against the Pelicans, who rank 24th this season in defensive efficiency, allowing 107.8 points per 100 possessions. He’s been about 0.20 DraftKings points per minute below his typical average, which suggests he should see positive regression moving forward. He’s in a fine buy-low spot on FanDuel, where is $4,900 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 86 percent.
Fast Break
Victor Oladipo smashed in his first game back from a knee injury, posting 54.5 DraftKings points in just 23 minutes. That was against the fast-paced Bulls, who were in a brutal schedule spot, but it does show Dipo’s ability to stuff the box sheet in a hurry. He’s in a good spot today, evidenced by his +3.43 Opponent Plus/Minus versus the Bucks.
Eric Gordon is also an intriguing pivot away from Chalky Lou, as he’ll face those fast-paced Bulls in a game with a high 221.5 Vegas total. In three games without James Harden, Gordon has averaged an impressive 1.1 DraftKings points per minute and a usage rate of 26.7 percent.
Small Forward
Stud
LeBron James is coming off a 76.5-point FanDuel outing Saturday against the Orlando Magic. In his 37 minutes, he compiled 33 points, 10 rebounds, nine assists, six steals, and one block. Any concern about LeBron keeping up his fantasy value with Isaiah Thomas on the court has been (so far) exaggerated:
It’s been only 21 minutes, but LeBron has averaged a ridiculous 1.76 DraftKings points per minute while sharing the floor with Thomas. He’s been scoring differently, averaging a lower 23.7 percent usage rate during that time (and that will go up), but he’s been better in his defensive statistics. It will be interesting to see how this dynamic plays out as the season progresses, but he’s certainly intriguing against a Wolves squad ranked 20th in defensive efficiency.
Value
The Spurs could be shorthanded again: Kawhi Leonard is out and Danny Green seems unlikely to play with groin tightness. With those guys out yesterday, Kyle Anderson played 35.4 minutes and exceeded salary-based expectations on DraftKings by 1.44 points. Davis Bertans also got extra run and posted 22.0 DraftKings points in about 28 minutes. Anderson has the higher minutes floor but has a low usage projection of 13.6 percent; Bertans will get less minutes but has a usage projection of 20.5 percent. They both profile more as cash-game options and they have a plus matchup against a Kings squad that ranks dead last in defensive efficiency.
Fast Break
Caris LeVert is expected back for the Brooklyn Nets, who are likely to be without DeMarre Carroll. LeVert has legitimately been the Nets’ best player while on the floor this season and he’s been very consistent of late:
He’s averaged nearly a full DraftKings point per minute without Carroll on the floor. He’s probably too cheap on that site, where his $5,200 salary comes with a 97 percent Bargain Rating.
The Bulls’ SF options — Justin Holiday and David Nwaba — lead the position with huge Opponent Plus/Minus values of +5.08 and +5.37, respectively, against the Rockets. Holiday had been below 20 percent usage in six straight games prior to last game, when he posted a 27.9 percent rate in 27 minutes of playing time. He’s been around 18-19 percent in minutes without Nikola Mirotic, who is doubtful to suit up tonight. Holiday is one of the least exciting plays on the slate, but he’s probably a bit underpriced at $5,000 given the matchup and pace of this game.
Power Forward
Stud
LaMarcus Aldridge has gone for at least 44 DraftKings points in each of his past three games, finishing with 55 on Sunday against his former team in Portland. He’s been a picture of minutes and usage consistency of late:
In six games without Kawhi and Green this season, he’s averaged a usage rate of 28.5 percent and 1.26 DraftKings points per minute. He’s a very safe play against a Kings squad that ranks last in defensive efficiency at a very affordable $7,700 on DraftKings.
Value
In 14 games Bobby Portis has played without Mirotic this season, he has averaged a usage rate of 24.8 percent and 1.08 DraftKings points per minute. The question, of course, is how much he’ll play: He averaged just 22 minutes in those games, and hasn’t been above that mark more than twice in the past month. He can fill up the box sheet in a hurry, especially in this likely fast-paced game with a large total. He has massive upside if he actually approaches 28-30 minutes.
Fast Break
In 12 games this season without Griffin or Gallo, Montrezl Harrell has averaged a usage rate of 25.1 percent and 1.1 DraftKings points per minute. He played a massive 31.5 last game and he should be a solid bet for around 25 tonight for the shorthanded Clippers. He has a dream matchup, evidenced by his +5.14 Opponent Plus/Minus. He’s far too cheap on DraftKings, where his $4,300 salary comes with a 90 percent Bargain Rating.
Center
Stud
DeMarcus Cousins is the most expensive option today by $1,300 on FanDuel, but he has a nice matchup against the Pistons, who rank just 20th in the league in rebound rate despite Andre Drummond‘s prowess in that regard. Speaking of Drummond, he’s probable to suit up now, but he’s obviously dealing with a very painful rib injury. When asked about it, head coach Stan Van Gundy said, “It’s a pain-tolerance thing. It’s hard to breathe and hard to move.” That sounds suboptimal against one of the most physical big men in the league. Boogie leads all options in projected ceiling tonight.
Value
Willie Cauley-Stein has averaged a +5.46 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 80 percent Consistency over his past 10 games. He went for 39.0 DraftKings points last game, racking up a ridiculous seven steals. He should continue to see nice minutes, especially if Zach Randolph is unable to go again. Portis and Harrell will likely be the chalk at the position, which makes Cauley-Stein an intriguing pivot in GPPs.
Fast Break
Atlanta ranks 28th in rebound rate this season, grabbing only 47.7 percent of the available boards. DeAndre Jordan remains one of the best rebounders in the league and his personal rebound rate has increased by 3.6 percent this season in games without Blake and Gallo. His +5.58 DraftKings Opponent Plus/Minus leads the position and he could provide nice leverage in tournaments away from the likely chalky Harrell.
Good luck!
Photo via Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
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