The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a 12-game slate starting at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Studs
Russell Westbrook continues to absolutely smash:
He’s dominated possessions for the Thunder over his past 10 games, posting an average usage rate of 37.5 percent. He’s the most expensive player on both sites, but he still feels like a bargain given his current role for the Thunder. Historically, Westbrook has been a massive value when comparably priced on DraftKings:
Restricting that trend to only the past two seasons – when Kevin Durant was gone and Westbrook was the unquestioned top dog – increases Westbrook’s average Plus/Minus to +8.06.
Westbrook also has a fantastic matchup today against the Los Angeles Lakers. OKC’s implied team total of 109.5 points is six points higher than their season average and Westbrook has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.79. There are tons of options on today’s slate, but it’s tough to discount the safety that Westbrook provides for cash games.
The Houston offense will be without James Harden for the next two weeks or so, which means that Chris Paul will have an opportunity to put his full offensive game on display. Paul has absolutely dominated with Harden off the court so far this season, seeing a usage increase of 7.6 percent while averaging more than 61 FanDuel points per 36 minutes:
He has quite possibly the best matchup of the day at the position against the Orlando Magic, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.74 on FanDuel.
Value
The Spurs are playing on the second leg of a back-to-back tonight, which means they most likely will be without Tony Parker and Kawhi Leonard. That should result in a few additional minutes for Dejounte Murray. Murray has been effective with both players out of the lineup this season, averaging 0.88 FanDuel points per minute:
He’s currently projected for 26.5 minutes in our Player Models. That kind of production would make him a tremendous value at the dead minimum on FanDuel.
Fast Break
It’s tough to trust Ricky Rubio given his play this season, but there is some reason for optimism against the New Orleans Pelicans. While Rubio has been plagued by an awful shooting percentage all season, he’s shot 44 percent from the field over his past two games. He’s also been playing more minutes recently, seeing at least 31.5 in three of his past five. When combined with his ability in the peripheral categories, Rubio has big upside in a plus-matchup.
Kris Dunn features one of the biggest pricing discrepancies of the day, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 98 percent on DraftKings. He’s been very good over the past month, posting a Consistency Rating of 86 percent. Virtually no other PG can match his ability in the steals department. He does have a tough matchup today against the Toronto Raptors, who currently rank fifth in the league in defensive efficiency, although his Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.80 is better than you would expect.
Shooting Guard
Studs
The top stud SG on today’s slate likely comes down to which site you’re playing on. It’s hard to argue against Devin Booker on FanDuel, where his $7,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97 percent. He’s dominated possessions for the Suns since returning from injury four games ago, posting a usage rate of at least 33 percent in every game. His minute restriction has clearly been lifted as well after playing 42 minutes in last night’s contest. His 14 Pro Trends are tied for the most on the slate regardless of position.
Meanwhile, Jimmy Butler continues to get no respect on DraftKings. His $8,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97 percent and he’s posted a ridiculous 85 percent Upside Rating over his past 14 games. Things don’t figure to get much more difficult for him today against the Brooklyn Nets given the Timberwolves’ implied team total of 110.5 points.
Value
After Paul, Eric Gordon seems like the next logical candidate to assume some of Harden’s role for the Rockets. So far this season he’s seen a usage increase of 7.2 percent and averaged 34.99 DraftKings points per 36 minutes with Harden off the court:
He’s currently projected for a slate-high 40.1 minutes, which makes him very appealing at his current salary across the industry.
Fast Break
Khris Middleton is another SG option with the potential to hit the 40-minute mark on today’s slate. He’s played at least 38 minutes in three straight games. All those minutes have resulted in a Consistency Rating of 93 percent on FanDuel over the past month. He has a solid matchup today against a Pacers team that will be without its best perimeter defender in Victor Oladipo.
Small Forward
Studs
The SF position is crowded at the top today, with three players owning price tags of at least $10,500 on FanDuel. LeBron James has been the best of the group recently, although that has translated into a Plus/Minus of just +0.12 on FanDuel over his past 10 games:
There are a couple of factors here that make him intriguing today. The first is his price tag. His salary has decreased by $1,100 over the past 10 games, resulting in an $11,500 salary for today’s contest. The second is that Isaiah Thomas will not play on the second leg of a back-to-back. Thomas posted a usage rate of 37.2 percent over 20 minutes in his first game back from injury, which resulted in a usage rate of just 28.3 percent for LeBron. Thomas could definitely have a huge impact for LeBron moving forward, but we don’t have to worry about that today. Finally, this is a prime #NarrativeStreet game against former teammate Kyrie Irving and the Boston Celtics. LeBron played 41 minutes and scored 63.7 FanDuel points in a loss in their first meeting; he could potentially be a little more motivated than usual.
After LeBron, the battle for the second spot comes down to Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant. Giannis has not been good recently, failing to exceed salary-based expectations in six straight games, but he wins this matchup by default: Durant is just too expensive at $10,500 given the return of Steph Curry. Giannis also has the significantly better matchup against the Pacers, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.85. Both of these guys seem best suited as contrarian options in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Value
There are tons of strong value options at the SF position on today’s slate. Kyle Anderson will probably draw the start for Leonard today and he’s averaged 30.16 FanDuel points per 36 minutes in games without him so far this season. Given that Danny Green is also questionable with a groin injury, the Spurs could need a lot from Anderson in today’s contest.
The Spurs aren’t the only team dealing with injury issues. Brooklyn could potentially be without Caris LeVert (doubtful) and DeMarre Carroll (questionable) today, which would leave Allen Crabbe as one of their lone wing options. He’s coming off a big game against the Orlando Magic on New Year’s Day, but today’s matchup against Butler and the Timberwolves is much more daunting.
Fast Break
Don’t forget about Lance Stephenson on today’s massive slate. He’s coming off a poor outing against the Timberwolves, but has still averaged close to 32 fantasy points per game in games without Oladipo this season:
He’s a better value on FanDuel today, where his $6,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
Both Trevor Ariza and Gerald Green figure to see a few additional minutes today for the Rockets, although neither will see the same type of usage increase as CP3 or Gordon. It will be interesting to see what the removal of Harden does for Houston’s role players in particular – it’s possible that they could actually see a decline in production without Harden serving as a distributor.
Power Forward
Stud
There are other higher priced players at the position – Anthony Davis, Kristaps Porzingis and Ben Simmons all fit the description– but no stud PF on today’s slate has more appeal than LaMarcus Aldridge. He should be the biggest benefactor of Leonard and Parker sitting: He’s averaged over 38 DraftKings points per game in games where both of them have been out of the lineup:
That kind of production would make him a really strong option on DraftKings, where his $7,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95 percent. His matchup against the 76ers won’t hurt matters either, especially since they’ll likely be without Joel Embiid.
Value
If Embiid does sit – he’s currently doubtful with a hand injury – Amir Johnson could see a few extra minutes at the center position. He’s averaged 1.01 fantasy points per minute this season, so he wouldn’t need to play much to pay off his $3,600 salary on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is another member of the Nets who stands to benefit from all their injuries. He played 38 minutes in their last game and has averaged 1.09 fantasy points per minute over the past month. He looks like a major value on DraftKings, where his $6,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93 percent.
Derrick Favors continues to get the job done for his fantasy owners given the injury to Rudy Gobert. He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in four of his last five games and has averaged 31.33 FanDuel points in games without Gobert overall:
He should be needed for big minutes against the size of the Pelicans and has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.07.
Center
Stud
DeMarcus Cousins has looked like his old self recently, scoring at least 57.5 DraftKings points in three straight games. That said, he has a brutal matchup today against the Jazz. The Pelicans implied team total of 104.75 is more than six points lower than their season average and Cousins has an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +0.61. He seems underpriced on DraftKings at just $10,500 given his recent production and the tough matchup will likely result in minimal ownership for GPPs. He’s been the most productive player on the slate over the past month on a per-minute basis, so the thought of getting him at reduced ownership is definitely appealing.
Value
It’s almost impossible to predict what the Suns are going to do at the center position, but one thing that has been consistent is their unwillingness to play Tyson Chandler on the second leg of a back-to-back. Both Greg Monroe and Alex Len have been super effective in games without Chandler this season, with both averaging roughly 40 DraftKings points per 36 minutes:
That said, Monroe hasn’t played in seven of the last eight games for the Suns, so it’s possible that he sits again tonight regardless of Chandler’s status. It’s a situation worth monitoring up to lineup lock.
Fast Break
Myles Turner has been downright awful over his last 10 games:
It’s tough to trust a guy who didn’t even see 20 minutes in his last game, but he does figure to have a ton of upside today against the Milwaukee Bucks. The Bucks have been destroyed by opposing centers all season thanks in part to the worst rebound rate in the league. Turner has also seen a slight bump in usage with Oladipo off the floor this season.
Finally, the Denver Nuggets lead today’s slate with an implied team total of 114.75 points. Nikola Jokic has seen all the minutes he can handle recently, playing at least 36 in five of his last six games. His matchup looks good against the Suns, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.16. That number likely undersells this matchup if Chandler does end up sitting. He looks like an excellent value on DraftKings, where his $9,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97 percent.
Good luck!
Photo via Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed:
