Stars, bargains, and back-to-backs, oh my.
(Okay, so that doesn’t quite have the same ring to it as L. Frank Baum intended, but you didn’t come here for the lede, did you?)
Let’s get to it.
Golden State Warriors (-8.5) at Orlando Magic
Implied Total: 116 – 107.5, O/U: 223.5
Only the Denver Nuggets have allowed more DraftKings points to opposing centers than the Warriors have over their last five games. That keeps Nikola Vucevic, who’s exceeded expectations by +14.01 points in his last six performances, as arguably the strongest cash option at his position. He also includes a Bargain Rating of 97% at DraftKings (which remains criminally absurd despite the fact that nearly every center is underpriced there).
Daily NBA is obviously a game in which, upon throwing an interception, you need to head to the bench and think about the next series rather than the previous error, but GAH:
I can guarantee you I’ll have exposure towards Brandon Jennings – tagged with a 98% Bargain Rating at FanDuel – in tournaments, but at this point in time, only Victor Oladipo (questionable) and Evan Fournier are cash-eligible in Orlando’s back court – they’ve averaged 41.2 and 39.7 minutes in three games since Tobias Harris’ departure. It’s a horrific spot for Jennings in cash anyways as Golden State has suffocated opposing point guards to -1.3 points below expectations.
I don’t believe in momentum, or “winners”, or anything of the sort, however, Klay Thompson-streaks are a thing and you can’t convince me otherwise. Having said that, note he’s exceeded expectations by +8.56 points over his last five games. But, priced equivalently to C.J. McCollum, note the latter has a projected floor +4.5 points greater.
(If incurring about Stephen Curry, look no further than our “Trend of the Day“.)
Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics (-8)
Implied Total: 104 – 112, O/U: 216
Given a small forward position that forces us to either A) go top-heavy, or B) rewind Maurice Harkless in cash, it’s near-impossible to avoid rostering Giannis Antetokounmpo no matter the format. Not that you should avoid it: he’s exceeded expectations by +14.95 points over his last five games. With as many Pro Trends as anyone else not named Kevin Durant at his position, Antetokounmpo should be considered an elite option in tonight’s slate. The same goes for Jabari Parker at FanDuel where he has a Bargain Rating of 97% — he’s exceeded expectations by +14.58 points over his last five games, averaging a line of 20.8-10.5-3 in 42.5 minutes in his last four.
Although a top-five projected floor at his position, Isaiah Thomas should only be used at DraftKings where he has a Bargain Rating of 90%. If considering his price in cash, however, note his Dud Percentage of 25%, albeit not terrible, remains +17% worse than that of Jrue Holiday’s – the latter’s price-point is -$100 cheaper. Evan Turner is still considered a strong tournament option in their back court as he’s recorded the second-most DraftKings points for Boston over their last 10 games, exceeding expectations by +8.01 points in that span. It bodes well that Milwaukee has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.4 allowed at his position.
Oklahoma City Thunder (-5.5) at New Orleans Pelicans
Implied Total: 113 – 107.5, O/U: 220.5
I could say “Russell Westbrook is a strong cash option” but 1) duh, and 2) the numbers are available to back up that claim. Even in being implied to score 49.31 points, for instance, Westbrook has a Dud Percentage of 0% in his last 11 performances — he’s averaged 56.7 DraftKings points, 7.1 more than Stephen Curry over that time. His 11 Pro Trends lead his position for obvious reasons. Feel free to recycle Holiday in cash, as well: not only have the Thunder quietly built an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.4 at his position, but Holiday has exceeded expectations by +9.23 points in his last 10 performances, +14.52 in his last six.
I don’t know how you make room for Kevin Durant in all of this, but it’s certainly intriguing that Billy Donovan dispersed him as a point guard in rather long stints as he staggered him with Westbrook throughout the entirety of their game last night. He’s obviously cash-eligible, unlike Randy Foye who, despite playing 14 second-half minutes in his new role, remains strictly a tournament option.
With Oklahoma City allowing +1.8 points above salary-based expectations to opposing power forwards, I consider Ryan Anderson as good of an option as any in this slate. While many flocked to Alexis Ajinca (starting in place of Omer Asik) in their last game, Anderson has notably logged the most time on-court for the Pelicans when Asik has been sidelined. In their last game alone, he played 7.2 more minutes than Kendrick Perkins (who’s apparently still in the league) and 8.4 more than Ajinca. He remains a terrific tournament option despite his counterpart (Anthony Davis) obviously having a projected floor +24.1 points greater.
Brooklyn Nets (-1) at Phoenix Suns
Implied Total: 104.3 – 103.3, O/U: 207.5
Phoenix’s backcourt went from a tight-knit group ensured to log 30-plus minutes to one giant question mark all in a matter of days. Ronnie Price, for instance, started at the point in their last game as Archie Goodwin rotated with Devin Booker at shooting guard off their bench. Instead, Phil Pressey has been used primarily as the point guard behind Price, logging 28 minutes in back-to-back performances. Implied to score only 14.35 points, Pressey should be heavily considered (gulp) above the entirety of their guard-conundrum, if only because of his lowly price point.
Upon re-spraining his ankle in practice yesterday, Alex Len has been said to still be ready for tonight. This news arguably knocks Tyson Chandler (expected to play) and even Mirza Teletovic down a peg despite the fact that Brooklyn has allowed +2.4 points above salary-based expectations to opposing centers. A case could still be made for Teletovic at FanDuel where he has a Bargain Rating of 97%; he also benefits if used at the four as Brooklyn has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.0 allowed to power forwards.
Another day, another slate in which Brook Lopez and Thaddeus Young are more than viable in cash games. For tournaments, it should also be noted that Donald Sloan has logged 30-plus minutes in three consecutive games. If he’s going to continue seeing extended run, there’s no reason to avoid him as Phoenix as an entirely neutral Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to point guards.
Houston Rockets at Portland Trailblazers (-3.5)
Implied Total: 107.5 – 111, O/U: 218.5
Withholding the highest implied total of the night, I’m not sure there’s a bad play on either side of this matchup. James Harden and Damian Lillard are obviously the strongest options in any format, but C.J. McCollum, averaging 19.8 field goal attempts over his last five games, is also in play as Houston has allowed +1.7 points above expectations at his position. Despite a Dud Percentage of 44% in his last nine performances, Dwight Howard is also a terrific option as he’s exceeded expectations by +8.52 points in his last five. If anything, feel free to reach outside of the box with Mason Plumlee as the Rockets have the highest Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to centers. He’s averaged 30.3 DraftKings points in 25.5 minutes in his last three games.
San Antonio Spurs (-3) at Utah Jazz
Implied Total: 98 – 95, O/U: 193
If their recent shakeup at the point is permanent, than there’s absolutely nothing wrong with leaning on Shelvin Mack – 93% Bargain Rating on FanDuel – in cash. Despite a projected floor of 7.8 points, he logged 31.7 minutes (the type of volume we’re looking for at that price) in his first start in place of Raul Neto. It’s not always the best idea to target San Antonio, but note they’ve been exploited for a minuscule +0.4 points above salary-based expectations at his position.
There is no official report in regards to Kawhi Leonard sitting out tonight, but Kyle Anderson scored 31 DraftKings points in 29.2 minutes despite coming off the bench in their last game (which was Leonard’s first action in their last three games). He’s among those listed as tournament-only plays for San Antonio, although you certainly shouldn’t go out of your way to squeeze them in as this game features an implied total -14.5 points lower than any other in tonight’s slate.
Good luck!
