The Market Share Report presents team-specific usage splits in easy-to-analyze visual form. For more information, see the first piece in the series.
For weekly analysis using this data, check out our NFL homepage. I’ll tweet out some findings as well, if that’s your thing. This data is best used in conjunction with our suite of Tools, especially our Models. The pie charts represent the past four weeks of data, while the line graphs show each individual week.
Without further ado, here are the graphs. They’re interactive, so hover over anything for more data. Good luck in the Wild Card Weekend!
Snaps
A guy can’t touch the ball if he’s not on the field. Snap data is more important than a lot of people think. If 80 percent of success is showing up, then we want guys who actually show up on the field.
Notes
The Jaguars could see more plays than usual this week, as they’re playing a Bills squad that ranks third in seconds per play this season and first in pace of play when trailing by seven-plus points. The Jaguars are currently 8.5-point home favorites. These teams did not play each other this year, but Jacksonville did run 90 offensive snaps just two weeks ago against a similarly fast-paced team in the 49ers. Given the low total of this game (39.5), it could be the lowest-owned of the weekend.
The Titans don’t play fast on offense — they rank 26th in seconds per play and 28th in neutral pace — but their defense has sped up opposing offenses this year, ranking sixth in that regard. The usual Kansas City suspects are in play, of course, but it will be interesting to see WR Albert Wilson‘s role in the offense. He got 11 targets in Week 17, but that was with the Chiefs resting most of their starters. Even in a regular Week 16, he was quite involved, getting eight targets from Alex Smith and playing 69 of the 83 offensive snaps — the third-highest mark on the team.
Targets
Players compete for one ball on a per-play basis and there’s only so much of the pie to go around. Targets are important. Below the pie graph is a line graph showing the weekly target share over the past four weeks.
Notes
Of the pass-catchers available in this weekend’s slate, Julio Jones unsurprisingly leads them with a 30.8 percent target share over the past four games. He has not been below 20 percent in a game since Week 4 and Matt Ryan has clearly zoned in on him in recent must-win weeks as Julio has received 22 targets over the past two games. We have seen only one Mount St. Julio explosion so far this year, but it could come again at any time given his immense talent.
The No. 2 pass-catcher in terms of target share over the past four weeks is . . . Charles Clay? The Buffalo tight end has seen a whopping 29.6 percent of his team’s targets over that time period and his raw target total (32) isn’t bad either. The Bills have a brutal matchup against the Jaguars, who rank first in total defensive DVOA and first against the pass. That said, they’re just 20th this season specifically against TEs. The Bills should have a pass-heavy game script as 8.5-point road dogs. Especially with LeSean McCoy day-to-day with an ankle issue, Clay could be a sneaky PPR value.
Air Yards
Air Yards as a metric helps us see how a receiver produces his receiving yards and how leveraged his targets are. The metric was created by RotoViz’s Josh Hermsmeyer. The charts show the market share of Air Yards.
Notes
Since Greg Olsen returned from injury, Devin Funchess has taken a backseat in the Carolina pecking order: He’s gotten just 14 total targets over the past three weeks. Still, there is perhaps a bit of reason for optimism. Funchess led the Panthers in Week 17 — a week in which they wanted to win — with 40.0 percent of the Air Yards. While the raw targets are down, he’s still getting fantasy-friendly ones and he’s just $5,900 at the Superdome.
It’s rare to find a tight end that dominates in Air Yards, but Travis Kelce has done exactly that this season. Tyreek Hill is an excellent field-stretcher in his own right, but Kelce has been the one to lead the Chiefs in Air Yards over the past three weeks he’s played. As discussed on the NFL Flex podcast, Kelce could actually be a contrarian option on the slate given his sky-high $7,100 DraftKings price tag and the public’s penchant for paying up for stud running backs.
Rushes
Again, there’s only so much of the rushing pie to go around.
Notes
Even though he barely played in Week 17, Kareem Hunt still leads this week’s crop of RBs with a 74.5 percent market share of rushes over the past four weeks. He has seen a resurgence late this season with Andy Reid giving up play-calling duties to offensive coordinator Matt Nagy, averaging 29.7 DraftKings points per game over his past three full outings. He faces a Tennessee defense that ranks a respectable seventh against the run this year but ranks dead last against RBs in the pass game.
With DeMarco Murray out for Week 17, it was clearly Derrick Henry‘s backfield and his alone. Henry got a whopping 96.6 percent of the team’s rushes and while he was stifled for just 1.8 yards per attempt against the Jags, that market share percentage is encouraging for this week if Murray is ruled out again. Henry has a potentially elite matchup against a Chiefs squad that ranks dead last in rush DVOA. He’s shown upside in the passing game as well, taking his lone reception last week 66 yards to the house. Even as 8.5-point road dogs, he’s intriguing if Murray sits.
Opportunities Inside the 10-Yard Line
Touchdowns are critical for success in guaranteed prize pools. Getting opportunities inside the 10-yard line is pretty much DFS gold.
Notes
Not only has Chiefs OC Hagy given Hunt a ton of carries and targets, he’s featured him in a huge way in the red zone. Despite barely playing in Week 17, he and Todd Gurley lead the league in opportunities inside the 10-yard line over the past four weeks with 12 and 11 respectively. In Weeks 15 and 16, the Chiefs pounded Hunt in the red zone, giving him a whopping nine carries and two additional targets. The Chiefs are currently implied for 26.5 points this weekend and it’s likely Hunt will be a big part of that.
Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara have split work all season, but it has worked for the both of them. Ingram has been the efficient early-down back while Kamara has been the impossible-to-bring-down change of pace guy. As a result, Ingram has gotten his touchdown opportunities close to the goal line. That wasn’t the case in Week 17, as Kamara got both rushing touches inside the 10. Who gets those opportunities this weekend will have a huge impact on GPPs.
Bryan Mears is an editor at FantasyLabs and host of the Daily Fantasy Flex podcast.
Photo via Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
