The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a five-game slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Studs
Damian Lillard will make his return today for the Portland Trail Blazers after missing their last five contests. He should be in a nice spot against the Cleveland Cavaliers, who rank 28th in defensive efficiency this season. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.46 for Lillard on DraftKings, where his 13 Pro Trends are tied for the most on the slate. The only concern is a possible minutes limit in his first game back, although nothing of that nature has been reported at the time of writing.
Dennis Schroder has the best matchup of the day at the PG position, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.14 against the Phoenix Suns. This game is projected to be one of the best of the day for DFS purposes – The Suns’ implied team total ranks first on the slate while the Hawks’ ranks third – and Schroder should be one of the most involved players in this game. He continues to dominate possessions for the Hawks, with his usage rate of 29.3 percent ranking 16th in the league.
Value
Isaiah Canaan has been a nice source of value since signing with the Suns:
He hasn’t been playing a ton of minutes, but his average of 1.01 fantasy points per minute is the fifth highest mark at the position on FanDuel. He has a wonderful matchup today against the Atlanta Hawks, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.22.
Fast Break
The Kings have the potential to be pretty shorthanded at PG today, with De’Aaron Fox currently questionable and Frank Mason already ruled out. That would leave a lot of minutes for George Hill in a solid matchup against the Charlotte Hornets. He’s been a bit of a disappointment over his last two games, but has still averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.54 on DraftKings over his last 10 games.
Milos Teodosic played 27.5 minutes in his last game but managed to score only 16.25 DraftKings points against the Charlotte Hornets. Still, the minutes are encouraging, and he was plagued by shooting just 30 percent from the field in that contest. Given his average of 0.88 fantasy points per minute over the past month, he will likely be a value at his current salary moving forward if he continues to see that much playing time.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Devin Booker features one of the largest pricing discrepancies of the day. He owns an $8,000 price tag on FanDuel and $9,100 price tag on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99 percent on the former. That makes him really appealing today against the Atlanta Hawks, especially considering how well he’s played since returning from injury. He’s averaged a usage rate of 39 percent over that timeframe and he appears to be off his minute restriction after playing 39.5 in his last contest.
Value
Marco Belinelli has been a solid contributor for the Hawks recently, exceeding salary based expectations in five of his last six games on DraftKings. He remains really affordable at just $3,800 and is in an elite spot against the Phoenix Suns. The Suns rank third in pace and 28th in defensive efficiency this season, which is good formula for allowing a lot of points.
Fast Break
Most people why shy away from CJ McCollum given Lillard’s return to the lineup, but he’s still in a fantastic spot today against the Cleveland Cavaliers. His Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.49 is the third best mark at the SG position on FanDuel, where his $7,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86 percent.
Tyreke Evans has been awesome recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +5.06 on DraftKings over his last 10 games. He seems underpriced on DraftKings given his production, and his $8,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95 percent. He has an elite matchup today with the Los Angeles Clippers, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.06.
Small Forward
Stud
LeBron James stands in his own tier on today’s slate. He costs $2,000 more than the second most expensive player on FanDuel and $2,600 more than the second most expensive player on DraftKings. That alone will likely result in massive ownership, but the fact that he’s scored at least 60 DraftKings points in 10 of his last 12 games wont hurt matters either.
Isaiah Thomas is slated to return today for the Cavaliers, but his return shouldn’t have much of an impact on LeBron. He’s going to come off the bench and is expected to play just 8-12 minutes, which means that LeBron won’t have to worry about sharing the ball much with him yet. In fact, Kevin Love is currently questionable with an illness, so it’s possible that LeBron could actually wind up with a larger role than normal despite the return of Thomas. LeBron has seen a pretty significant boost in production with Love off the court this season, resulting in an average of 57.56 DraftKings points per 36 minutes:
He doesn’t have a great matchup against Portland, who ranks fourth in the league in defensive efficiency this season, but the bottom line is no one on today’s slate offers the same combination of upside and safety as LeBron.
Value
Virtually everyone projected to see minutes for the Hawks and Suns is in play today, but Taurean Prince seems like one of the strongest values. He’s been pretty productive recently, averaging 0.92 fantasy points per minute over the past month, and he’s seen at least 31 minutes of playing time in three of his past four games. Unsurprisingly, he has a strong Opponent Plus/Minus in today’s matchup, with his mark of +3.19 ranking fifth among SFs on FanDuel.
Al-Farouq Aminu could potentially see a lot of minutes today to try and serve as the LeBron stopper on defense. He has historically graded out as one of the best defenders in the league per Defensive Real Plus/Minus (DRPM) and has allowed an average of just 0.8 fantasy points per minute this season. He’s currently priced at $4,500 on DraftKings and has historically been a nice source of value with a comparable salary and minute projection (30):
Fast Break
The Spurs continue to increase Kawhi Leonard’s playing time slowly but surely, culminating in a season-high 27.5 minutes in his last game against the Pistons. It seems like just a matter of time before he’s playing 30+ minutes. When he does, he’s going to be a massive value on DraftKings at just $6,700. Some exposure in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) may be warranted.
T.J. Warren has been awesome recently for the Suns, scoring at least 32.75 DraftKings points in six of his last seven games. His salary has increased by a decent bit over that timeframe, but his DraftKings salary of $6,800 still comes with a Bargain Rating of 93 percent. He has a wonderful matchup today with the Hawks, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.82.
Power Forward
Studs
Blake Griffin was rumored to be off his minutes limit for his last game against the Hornets and responded with 47.75 DraftKings points. He didn’t play as many minutes as expected, seeing just 33 minutes of court time, but that does mean he could be a full go in today’s contest against the Grizzlies. If he is, he’s almost undoubtedly underpriced across the industry, which makes him a really appealing option on today’s slate.
Kristaps Porzingis continues to be massively discounted on DraftKings, with his $8,300 salary resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99 percent. He’s played well recently, scoring at least 40.25 DraftKings points in five straight games, although he’ll face a stiff test today against the San Antonio Spurs. The Knicks implied team total of 97.75 points is the lowest in the slate by a pretty wide margin and Porzingis has an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +1.20.
Value
Jeff Green provided a massive performance off the bench in his last game, scoring 35.75 DraftKings points in just 26.5 minutes. He would be one of the most logical candidates to assume some of Love’s minutes if he’s inactive. Green has averaged 32.34 DraftKings points per 36 minutes with Love off the floor this season:
He would be very appealing at just $3,800 if Love were unable to go.
Fast Break
LaMarcus Aldridge has been priced down to $7,600 for today’s contest on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 97 percent. That said, it’s tough to consider him as long as Kawhi is active. He’s seen a usage decrease of 6.8 percent and averaged 10.6 fewer fantasy points per 36 minutes when sharing the court with Leonard this season:
While buying low on players is typically smart for GPPs, this seems like an exception.
Zach Randolph has had his minutes drastically reduced over the past week, playing no more than 24.5 in any of his last four games. That said, his $5,100 salary on FanDuel might be cheap enough where he can return value in his new role. He continues to lead the team in usage and has averaged 1.18 fantasy points per minute over the past month.
Center
Stud
It’s going to be extremely hard to avoid Dwight Howard on DraftKings on today’s slate. Not only is he underpriced – his $7,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99 percent – but he has a dream matchup against the Sacramento Kings, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.51. The Kings have struggled with rebounding in particular, averaging the fifth lowest team rebound rate this season, which should play right into Howard’s biggest strength.
Value
The Suns may finally be settling into a more regular rotation at the center position. Tyson Chandler has played at least 29.5 minutes in three of his last four games. That much playing time would gave him a great chance of paying off his current salary against the Atlanta Hawks. The Hawks have been one of the worst teams against centers all season, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.89 for Chandler on today’s slate.
Fast Break
Jusuf Nurkic has seen his minutes fluctuate wildly over the past month, playing as few as 17 or as many as 37.5. The good news is that the 37.5 came in his most recent game, which provides a bit of optimism for him moving forward. Regardless, he’s been able to return value pretty regularly at his current salary on FanDuel, which comes with a Bargain Rating of 95 percent. He has a strong matchup today against the Cavs, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.27.
Good luck!
Photo via Mark J. Rebilias-USA TODAY Sports
News Updates
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