The Quarterback Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s main NFL slate. For more of our weekly football content, visit the NFL homepage.
The playoffs have arrived! Round One features exactly one matchup between two quarterbacks who have each played into January before, so there will be a premium on determining how regular season performance will translate to the playoffs. Remember: It’s Wild Card Weekend, so keep your head on a swivel!
Happy Wild Card Weekend everyone! #WildCard pic.twitter.com/0hgfxLTjWt
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) January 2, 2018
As always, this breakdown is explicitly for the four-game main slate, although it has wider applicability.
The Big Two
Two NFC quarterbacks sit atop the quarterback salary scale this week.
- Jared Goff ($6,700 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel)
- Cam Newton ($6,500 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel)
Goff and Newton were both No. 1 overall picks once upon a time, but that’s about where their similarities end. Let’s get it.
The Chosen One
After a historically #bad debut as a rookie, Goff’s Sean McVay-inspired sophomore campaign couldn’t have gone better. He posted a 28/7 touchdown/interception ratio and became one of just four second-year quarterbacks since 2000 to average over 8.4 adjusted yards per attempt. Goff enters the postseason having thrown multiple touchdowns in five straight games and offers a healthy floor as the quarterback of the league’s highest-scoring and fastest-moving offense.
Goff has a top-three projected ceiling and floor among all quarterbacks in our Pro Models. It’s unsurprising given his aforementioned performance this season, although the Falcons have demonstrated the ability to curtail top-flight passing attacks. Only Brian Hoyer surpassed 300 yards on the Falcons this season while Carson Wentz and Dak Prescott were the only signal callers to find the end zone more than twice. The Falcons defense has posted agnostic home/away splits since Dan Quinn took over in 2015 and the Falcons’ team speed and talented secondary (two defensive backs graded among PFF’s top-12 players at their position) could prove to be a tougher challenge than expected.
Per our Correlations Dashboard, the average correlation between a quarterback and their RB1 this season has been a middling 0.07. Goff and Todd Gurley‘s fantasy production has a strong +0.43 correlation since Goff took over under center last season, which makes sense given the running back’s huge pass-game role. Consider using our Lineup Builder to stack Goff with Gurley on Saturday.
Playoff Cam
Some players like Le’Veon Bell and David Johnson are so involved in the offense that we essentially treat them as running back/wide receiver hybrids. Newton has become a quarterback/running back hybrid as of late, racking up 11-plus rushes in four consecutive games. This has historically been a recipe for success in Carolina, as the Panthers have scored 30-plus points in 46 percent of games when Newton has double-digit rush attempts compared to just 29 percent of games with fewer than 10 rushes. This usage is especially deadly when it comes near the goal line, as Newton’s agility and athleticism just aren’t fair inside the body of a 6’5″ 245-pound machine:
Cam Newton = red-zone RB1 pic.twitter.com/MYlZ4JBleu
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) January 3, 2018
Newton has racked up 12 red zone rushes in his last four games compared to 14 such rushes in Weeks 1-13. He would’ve been the RB32 in standard scoring based purely on his rushing statistics this season. Newton will need to make the most out of his rushing chances against the league’s fifth-ranked defense in pass DVOA, which held Newton to fewer than 190 passing yards in each of their two matchups this season. Still, Newton’s 20.4 DraftKings points in the Superdome in Week 13 marked the first time he finished with fewer than 30 points in New Orleans since 2013. He carries the highest projected floor and projected Plus/Minus across the industry.
Be sure to check out our Ownership Dashboard shortly after lock to see if Newton’s elevated rushing role makes him chalk at various contest sizes.
Hot Routes
Matt Ryan ($6,100 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel): Ryan has struggled to get much of anything going recently, failing to throw for multiple touchdowns in six straight games – the longest-such stretch of his career. Ryan only had four-such games in his MVP-winning 2016 campaign, but he’ll have a tough time turning things around against the Rams’ third-ranked defense in pass DVOA. Still, he ranked among the top-eight quarterbacks this season in both red zone and deep ball (20+ yards downfield) attempts per game, signaling a chance for positive touchdown regression thanks to his plethora of fantasy-friendly opportunities. Ryan has also performed admirably in past playoff games, throwing for at least 250 yards in each of his past five January/February matchups while posting a 15/3 touchdown/interception ratio.
Marcus Mariota ($5,500 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel): Mariota is a threat on the ground, but he holds a low weekly floor due to the Titans’ struggles to consistently pass the ball in their ‘exotic-smashmouth’ offense. Mariota failed to surpass 250 passing yards in 10 of his 15 starts this season, while he threw for multiple touchdowns on just three occasions. These problems won’t be mitigated against a Chiefs defense that has historically played at a different level at Arrowhead:
- Chiefs defense at home since 2016 (16 games):16.3 PPG, 230.7 pass yards, 0 games of 30+ points allowed
- On the road (16 games): 24.3 PPG, 263.7 pass yards, 4 games of 30+ points allowed
Quarterbacks have averaged 21.9 DraftKings points per game (PPG) at home against the Chiefs, but just 14.3 in Kansas City dating back to the beginning of last season. Mariota eclipsed 20 DraftKings points in just one game this season. The Titans might be better served testing the Chiefs’ league-worst defense in rush DVOA as opposed to their 23rd-ranked unit in pass DVOA. Mariota carries the lowest projected floor and second-lowest projected ceiling among all quarterbacks this week.
Blake Bortles ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel): The clock struck midnight on Bortles’ December fairy tale, as he managed just 158 yards, zero touchdowns and three points against the Titans after averaging 321 passing yards and 2.25 touchdowns per game in Weeks 13-16. It wouldn’t be surprising if the league’s most run-heavy offense went even further out of their way to take the ball out of Bortles’ hands with their season on the line, especially against the Bills’ run-funnel defense that ranks 12th in pass DVOA and 31st against the run. Only Jameis Winston and David Fales (!!!) have surpassed 18 DraftKings points against the Bills this season. They’ve allowed a slate-best 6.5 DraftKings points below salary-based expectation to quarterbacks over the past 12 months.
Tyrod Taylor ($4,700 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel): Taylor will have to overcome his severe home/away splits in addition to a historically elite Jaguars defense that ranks first in overall and pass DVOA. The absence of LeSean McCoy (ankle, questionable) would be bad news for the Bills offense, so be sure to monitor our Injury Dashboard to track Shady’s daily practice participation and estimated game status. Taylor figures to become the offense’s focal point if McCoy is ultimately unable to suit up. That role has produced an average of 50.4 rushing yards and 0.6 rush touchdowns per game over the past three seasons. The Jaguars’ front seven has five players graded among the top-20 at their position by PFF this season, and their previously-shoddy run defense has allowed 39.7 fewer rushing yards per game since adding run-stuffing tackle Marcell Dareus in Week 9. Taylor might wind up as the focal point of his offense, but quarterbacks implied to score fewer than 16 points have historically posted a -3.1 Plus/Minus with a 27.6 percent Consistency Rating (per our Trends Tool).
The Model Quarterbacks
Two quarterbacks stand atop the Pro Models built by Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, and Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek):
- Drew Brees ($6,400 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel)
- Alex Smith ($6,300 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel)
Brees’ 72 percent completion rate this season was a career high and his average of 8.3 adjusted yards per attempt certainly doesn’t paint the picture of a washed-up quarterback. His lack of fantasy production was more due to a lack of opportunity, as Brees’ 536 pass attempts marked the first time since 2009 that he finished with fewer than 650 (min. 16 games). His counting stats took a fairly severe hit:
- Brees average 2014-2016: 9.3 games with 300+ yards, 6 games with 3+ TDs, 22.9 DraftKings PPG, +3.2 Plus/Minus
- Brees 2017: 3 games with 300+ yards, 1 game with 3+ TDs, 17.5 DraftKings PPG, -2.4 Plus/Minus
He remains just one of five quarterbacks to average at least 23 DraftKings PPG at home since 2014 despite the down year and has racked up three-touchdown performances in three of his four career playoff games inside the Coors Field of Fantasy Football. The Panthers allowed half of the quarterbacks they faced this season to rack up at least 20 DraftKings points and have allowed a slate-high 2.2 points above salary-based expectation to quarterbacks over the past 12 months. The Saints likely won’t deviate too far from the balanced offense that got them back to the playoffs, but Brees is certainly set up well with his matchup against a Panthers defense without a cornerback graded higher than 85th by PFF. His status as a home favorite implied to score 27.25 points doesn’t hurt either.
The Saints’ second-ranked offensive line in adjusted-sack rate has kept Brees clean all season, but has a tough matchup against the Panthers’ third-ranked defensive line. The Saints would greatly benefit from the return of left tackle Terron Armstead (thigh, questionable). Be sure to utilize our Matchups tool to break down each week’s battles at the line of scrimmage.
A picture of Smith is likely included next to “game-manager” in any mid-2000s dictionary, but the artist formerly known as Alex opened up the Chiefs offense in a huge way this season. He led the league in completions, touchdowns, and quarterback rating on passes thrown at least 20 yards downfield. The presence of generational talents like Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill certainly help, but Smith proved again and again he could make defenses pay with nut throws all over the field:
Alex Smith, professional dime dropper pic.twitter.com/RJXcFftPdw
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) January 3, 2018
2017’s QB4 in average DraftKings PPG scored 25-plus DraftKings points in five games, an incredible feat considering he passed that threshold on just three occasions in 2014-2016. He’s set up well against the Titans’ 24th-ranked defense in pass DVOA that ranks among the bottom-eight units in average DraftKings PPG and Plus/Minus allowed to quarterbacks this season. Smith is especially in play on FanDuel, where he is the highest-rated quarterback in the Levitan and CSURAM88 models, although he carries position-high FantasyLabs projected ownership across the industry.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Research the quarterbacks for yourself with our tools and read the other Week 17 positional breakdowns.
• Running Backs
• Wide Receivers
• Tight Ends
• Defense & Special Teams
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Stay ahead of your competition with our NFL news feed.
Photo Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
