The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Happy New Year! Monday features a four-game main slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Milwaukee Bucks at Toronto Raptors (-5.5) — 214.5 Total
This game features a ton of $7,000 guys and the slate’s most expensive stud in Giannis Antetokounmpo at $11,000 on DraftKings. He’s struggled of late, missing value in four straight affairs, and has averaged a disappointing -0.22 Plus/Minus over his past 10. The issue, of course, is price: He put up 50.0 fantasy points in his last game against a stout Thunder defense and still missed value by 1.57 points. At a salary $300 more expensive today, he’ll need to be even better to really pay off his price tag. Thankfully, he’ll have every opportunity to do so. He’s been playing around 40 minutes per game over the past month and leads all players with a 31.8 percent projected usage rate.
He’s much more affordable on FanDuel, where his $10,900 comes with a Bargain Rating of 81 percent. That’s the case for his Bucks teammates as well. Khris Middleton has gone for at least 38 minutes in each of his past six games, during which he’s dipped below a 24 percent usage rate in just one game. He hit value in every game but one in last year’s playoff series, mostly thanks to his 12 steals over the six games. Eric Bledsoe has eviscerated the Raptors over the past couple of years, although he has a different role for this Bucks squad:
This is a tough matchup for the Bucks, as the Raptors rank fifth this season with a 102.3 defensive efficiency mark. They matched up well with them during the playoffs last season and some of their role players are underpriced — John Henson at $4,500 on DraftKings and Tony Snell at $3,700 on FanDuel — but there is downside here.
The Raptors, on the other hand, might be a bit undervalued today. They rank fifth in offensive efficiency this season, averaging 109.9 points per 100 possessions, and they face a mediocre Bucks defense that ranks 21st, allowing 106.8 points/100. Kyle Lowry busted in his last game, missing value by over 10 DraftKings points in a dream matchup against the Hawks, but he had gone for at least 40 in each of his past three against much tougher opponents. He’s due for a bounce-back game and ranks second on the slate with 11 DraftKings Pro Trends.
DeMar DeRozan is in an interesting spot. He has a beautiful +3.07 Opponent Plus/Minus today, but he’s been terribly inconsistent of late, missing value in three straight games after blowing up for 63.75 fantasy points 10 days ago versus the 76ers. He had a similar up-and-down profile against these Bucks in last year’s playoff series:
DeRozan and Lowry are rarely highly-owned and they could be overlooked given the options in the Minnesota-LA affair. For that reason — plus their visibly-high ceilings — they’re definitely excellent plays in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
And I can’t forget about Serge Ibaka, who has been an awesome fantasy asset of late (other than last game):
Orlando Magic at Brooklyn Nets (-1) — 219.5 Total
The Magic are in a nice spot, playing against a Brooklyn team that ranks fourth in pace – averaging 102.7 possessions per 48 minutes – and 23rd in defensive efficiency, allowing 107.2 points/100. All of these players benefit from a +4.5 paceD (pace differential) and all have positive Opponent Plus/Minus marks. This game should be close and has a high implied total.
Further, in the two games without Jonathan Isaac, Nikola Vucevic, and Terrence Ross, the Magic have kept a tight core:
Their starters have all averaged over 32 minutes per game and only Jonathon Simmons has (barely) produced a negative Plus/Minus. Evan Fournier, Aaron Gordon, and Bismack Biyombo have all crushed value in this spot, and they certainly merit exposure again today. Gordon might be the lowest-owned of the group given his team-high $7,900 price tag, but he’s posted a 28.7 percent usage rate in those two games — a team-high 6.5 percent increase. Biyombo is likely still the best value at $5,600 on DraftKings, where he comes with a 97 percent Bargain Rating and a stupid-high +5.87 Opponent Plus/Minus. You get the point: Load up on the Magic starters today.
The Nets are pretty much the exact opposite: No player is projected to exceed 30 minutes today. There are still fine GPP options however. Don’t blow past the fact that Brooklyn is implied for 110.25 points — the second-highest mark in the slate. And just look at this DraftKings value, in terms of both Bargain Rating and Opponent Plus/Minus:
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson has continued to impress, posting a Plus/Minus of +4.62 on 70 percent Consistency over his past 10 games. Allen Crabbe has also hit value in seven of his past 10, and Caris LeVert has been the best fantasy asset of the bunch, averaging a +4.24 Plus/Minus on DraftKings on 80 percent Consistency over that time frame. He has been playing very well as a lead ball-handler and has 25 assists over his past three games. He’s a very fine value on FanDuel at just $5,800, although there are a ton of SG options today with a higher minutes floor. Stacking this game could very well pay off in tournaments.
Los Angeles Lakers at Minnesota Timberwolves (-10.5) — 216.5 Total
Much like the Magic, the Lakers had a very tight rotation in their last game with several key pieces (Lonzo Ball, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Brook Lopez) out.
Tyler Ennis had his best game of the year and played a whopping 45.5 minutes starting for Ball. Julius Randle crushed value, scoring 55.25 DraftKings points and getting his second start of the year at center. Jordan Clarkson and Larry Nance Jr. got less minutes than expected, and unlike the Magic’s situation, it’s unclear whether that will continue. The Lakers went to double overtime last night against the Rockets and now are on the second leg of a road back-to-back in Minnesota on New Year’s Day.
Many of these guys are young and some of them — Brandon Ingram and Kyle Kuzma, especially — have specific roles for the team that can’t be replicated by the bench. Those guys are likely a lock for big minutes again, but it is fair to be wary about the split with Ennis, Clarkson, and Randle, particularly on the road B2B. These guys are all very affordable and have a brilliant matchup with a Minnesota squad that ranks 24th in defensive efficiency, allowing 107.6 points/100, but be careful. They’re implied for just 102.3 points and are double-digit dogs for a reason; this could be a let-down spot.
The Timberwolves are also on a back-to-back, although they are at home, which is good news for Karl-Anthony Towns, who posted ridiculous home/away splits last year and has continued that trend this season:
He has been awesome lately, posting a +6.65 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 70 percent Consistency over his past 10 games. He has historically dominated the Lakers, averaging 48.5 DraftKings points and a +6.67 Plus/Minus against them over eight games. He has a +6.0 Opponent Plus/Minus today to go along with a +3.7 paceD. Load him up.
The other interesting Wolves player is Jimmy Butler, who has been just as good as a fantasy asset of late, posting a +5.26 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 80 percent Consistency over his past 10 games. He’s doing a little bit of everything, grabbing 20 rebounds, dishing out 25 assists, and swiping eight steals over his past four games. He’s still a value on DraftKings, where his $8,700 salary comes with a 90 percent Bargain Rating, and he’s especially intriguing without KCP playing in this one.
The other Wolves are in play in GPPs for the reasons I said to be cautious about the Lakers, although make sure to shop at the right stores for them. For example, Tyus Jones is still much more affordable on DraftKings, where his cheaper $5,600 salary comes with a 95 percent Bargain Rating. Andrew Wiggins, meanwhile, is incredibly cheap at $5,500 on FanDuel.
Portland Trail Blazers (-1) at Chicago Bulls — 206.5 Total
This game has easily the slate’s lowest Vegas total and it features two (currently) excellent defenses. The Blazers have been stout in that regard all season, ranking fourth in defensive efficiency and allowing 102.1 points/100. The Bulls are below-average in the long term but have ramped up their play lately: They’re top-10 in defensive efficiency over their past 10 games and guards Kris Dunn and David Nwaba have excellent Defensive Real Plus-Minus marks this season. They lead the team with Defensive Ratings of 104 and 106, respectively, and have helped give the Bulls a new spark of life this season.
The Blazers have also been excellent defensively in the short term, ranking sixth and allowing 102.6 points/100 over their past 10 games. This is certainly not a fake trend, as they’ve consistently been excellent with Jusuf Nurkic defending the rim, even if it has regressed a bit this season:
This might be a game to be lighter on today, although the potential absence of Damian Lillard could open up some value. He is a game-time decision tonight with a strained right hamstring and has missed the past four games. In those games, Shabazz Napier has led the team with 35.6 minutes and 37.2 DraftKings points per game. He’s averaged a robust +15.8 Plus/Minus, and he’ll be a popular play again at $5,500 if Lillard is again ruled out. Still, while it’s hard to ignore 35-plus minutes per game and this type of production . . .
. . . it’s fair to wonder how much success he’ll have against Dunn.
This game might not be amazing for cash-game purposes, but it should be low-owned and includes players with high ceilings, such as Dunn, who has gone for 50-plus fantasy points twice in his last 12 games. Again, be careful with your shopping: The Bulls, for example, all have high Bargain Ratings on FanDuel (except for Dunn).
Good luck!
Photo via Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports
News Updates
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