Coaching changes can either plummet a fantasy player’s stock or allow them to reach never before seen heights: Just ask anyone who has played under Jeff Fisher. We’ll break down the DFS impact of every NFL coach who gets hired or fired over this busy period right here as the moves come in.
Oakland Raiders
Change: Jack Del Rio fired.
What went wrong: Del Rio led the Raiders to a 12-4 mark last season, marking their first winning campaign since 2002. But the team regressed to 6-10 despite getting full seasons from most of its major pieces. Del Rio’s status as a defensive coach never quite stuck with the Raiders, as they fell to 20th and 16th in overall DVOA after finishing 12th in his 2015 debut season. While signatures have yet to be confirmed, the Raiders’ move likely had a bit more to do with the replacement coach than the current coach, as Jon Gruden is expected to leave his position inside the Monday Night Football broadcast booth and begin coaching again for the first time since 2008.
Key Player: QB Derek Carr
Impact: Carr’s development has been handled by longtime quarterback coach Todd Downing, and Gruden – plus reportedly Jets offensive coordinator John Morton – have quite the prospect to work with. While Carr is one of just six quarterbacks ever with over 100 passing touchdowns in their first four seasons, he regressed in nearly every meaningful statistical category this season. Gruden has remained plenty involved with quarterbacks with his yearly quarterback camp (Carr was an attendee). He’ll also inherit a top-five offensive line, along with plenty of speed and first-round talent at receiver.
But just how much can Gruden help Carr unlock the Raiders’ middle-of-the-road offense? Carr has struggled to consistently challenge defenses downfield, as his average target distance of 8.4 yards was tied for the 25th-lowest mark among all quarterbacks this season. The Raiders have ranked 17th or lower in scoring during three of Carr’s four seasons under center despite his aforementioned talented teammates. Gruden didn’t coach a single top-10 scoring offense from 2002-08 with the Buccaneers after doing so in four of six seasons with the Eagles and Raiders. It’s fair to say Carr is more talented than Gruden’s Bucs QBs (Brad Johnson, Brian Griese, Chris Simms, Bruce Gradkowski, and Jeff Garcia), but Carr deserves at least some of the blame for ranking outside of the top-15 quarterbacks (minimum 10 starts) in adjusted yards per attempt, touchdown rate, and quarterback rating this season. Carr is still just 26-years old and could undoubtedly benefit from the tutelage of a Super-Bowl winning coach, but perhaps his ceiling (at least as a fantasy quarterback) is a bit closer to Brad Johnson than Rich Gannon, regardless of who is calling the plays.
Indianapolis Colts
Change: Chuck Pagano fired.
What went wrong: Pagano’s final 4-12 season was his first with fewer than eight wins since he joined the Colts in 2012. Pagano missed 12 games due to cancer treatments during his initial 11-5 debut, but won back-to-back AFC South titles with 32 games from Andrew Luck in 2013-14. He failed to ever break .500 again. It’s tough to give him too much credit for Luck’s success considering Pagano’s background as a defensive coach and the presence of Bruce Arians, along with noted OCs Pep Hamilton and now Rob Chudzinski. The Colts posted a top-10 offense in yards per drive in the four seasons they got at least 15 games from Luck. Overall, Pagano went 43-27 with Luck (.614) compared to 10-16 without (.385).
Key Player: QB Andrew Luck
Impact: Luck may not be able to attribute much of his success or failure to Pagano, but a shake-up in the coaching staff could open up an appetizing offensive coordinator position for someone to work with one of the league’s best quarterbacks. More important for Luck is the performance of general manager Chris Ballard, as adding weapons will be a priority with receivers Donte Moncrief, Kamar Aiken, and Erik Swoope all headed for free agency – and their soon-to-be 35-year old running back Frank Gore potentially retiring. It’d behoove the Colts to use the third-overall pick in the 2018 draft on the team’s league-worst offensive line in adjusted sack rate.
Chicago Bears
Change: John Fox fired
What went wrong: Fox’s three-year tenure in Chicago has officially come to an end. His 11 total wins from 2015-17 were fewer than he had in each of his 2012-14 campaigns with the Broncos. Three of Fox’s four worst seasons in his 16-year career as a head coach came with the Bears. Fox is a defensive coach who has done little to help any quarterbacks or offenses not associated with Peyton Manning, as none of his non-Manning teams ranked higher than No. 10 in offensive plays, yards, pass/run ratio, and neutral pace. To his credit, Fox and defensive coordinator Vic Fangio oversaw the league’s 11th-best defense in DVOA this season.
Key Player: RB Jordan Howard
Impact: While Fox didn’t control the offense on a play-by-play basis, he was undoubtedly involved in the decision to use the team’s featured running back on fewer than 60 percent of the offense’s snaps. Howard averaged 5.21 yards per carry as a rookie in 2016, the third-highest mark ever among the 48 first-year RBs to rack up at least 250 carries. But Tarik Cohen and Benny Cunningham regularly sidelined Howard for extended stretches this season. Mitch Trubisky, the 2017 No. 2 overall pick, could also stand to benefit from a schematic change after scoring nine touchdowns in 12 starts in the league’s 29th-ranked scoring offense under offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains.
Arizona Cardinals
Change: Bruce Arians retired.
What went wrong: Not much, at least on Arians’ end. His choice to retire at 65 years young comes 42 years after he began his career as a graduate assistant at Virginia Tech. You wouldn’t have called Arians an old man based on his offense, as his famed “No risk it, no biscuit” mentality helped lead the Cardinals to top-six scoring offenses in 2015 and 2016. Offensive coordinator Harold Goodwin (who worked under Arians since joining him with the Steelers in 2007) certainly deserves plenty of credit, but Arians’ four-year run produced a 49-30-1 record and brought the Cardinals their first three-year run of double-digit-win seasons since 1974-76.
Key Player: RB David Johnson
Impact: Arians’ downfield-minded passing attack meshed to perfection with Carson Palmer and helped mold big-play options like John Brown and J.J. Nelson, while his decision to move Larry Fitzgerald to the slot reinvigorated a seemingly stale career. Still, it’s hard to overstate just how much the Cardinals’ ex-coach loved their All-Pro running back. Only one player in a season has ever had more carries (313) and recorded targets (137) than Johnson last season: LaDainian Tomlinson in 2003. One half of #TeamJamEmIn suddenly has serious workload questions with the departure of the man who openly pushed for Johnson to handle 30 touches a game and reach 1,000 rushing/receiving yards in a season.
Detroit Lions
Change: Jim Caldwell fired.
What went wrong: Not much, to be honest. It’s tough to call Caldwell’s tenure in Detroit anything but a resounding success considering his three winning seasons from 2014-17 were as many as the Lions totaled from 1996-2013. To many he’s just expressionless proof that anyone could coach a winning team with Peyton Manning under center, but Caldwell has managed to make $100 million men out of both Joe Flacco and Matthew Stafford during his past two endeavors. The organization hinted the decision was rooted in the team’s inability to truly contend for championships, but it remains to be seen how far the Lions can continue to go without a consistent running game or defense.
Key Player: QB Matthew Stafford
Impact: Caldwell was influential in Stafford’s development as a passer. Stafford averaged 6.99 yards per attempt with a 59.4 percent completion rate in 2009-13 compared to 7.35 yards per attempt with a 64.6 percent completion rate with Caldwell. The presence of offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter has undoubtedly helped as well and the team’s intention to conduct at least some interviews from within the organization bodes well for some type of consistency for Stafford. It might be hard to change much unless the front office addresses the league’s 32nd-ranked offensive line in adjusted line yards.
