Welcome to the Week 17 Vegas lines deconstruction. If you’re unfamiliar with what we do in this piece, here’s the gist:
- We’re breaking the implied team total into three scoring types — passing, rushing, and kicking points.
- To do this, we’re leveraging the rates at which teams score their points and opposing defenses concede them in each phase of the game.
In the below tables you’ll see a column labeled “Matchup %.” That number takes the percentage of total points an offense has scored in a specific way, such as through passing touchdowns, and averages it with the percentage of total points the opposing defense has allowed for that same scoring type.
Highlighting matchups that feature offenses and defenses that score and allow points in similar ways presents an opportunity to exploit the implied team totals. To do that, we apply the “Matchup %” to the implied team total to break it down into projections for passing, rushing, and kicking points. These projections are not fantasy points; rather, they are expected in-game points derived from the implied team totals.
As always, consult the NFL homepage for more information on individual matchups that stand out. Also, visit the Vegas page for any line movement. Let’s jump into the Week 17 deconstructions.
Passing Scoring and Notes
2017 League Average Passing Touchdown Points Rate: 40.3 percent
Note: Lines pulled from Sports Insights on December 27.
Paying Up for Brady
Week 17 always adds an extra layer of analysis, with value often opening up as we learn which teams will give younger players extended run. The Patriots don’t figure to be one of those teams, as a win will secure the No. 1 seed in the AFC. They carry a slate-high implied total into their matchup with the Jets, who concede far more points in the passing game than on the ground relative to league average rates. Thus, the Models have Tom Brady with a position-high median projection on both major sites. And while Brady stacks are always expensive, Week 17 value plays make them far from prohibitive.
Matty Ice
The Falcons have a win-and-in scenario as home favorites against the Panthers, and Matt Ryan comes in priced as the No. 16 quarterback on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Carolina has given up multiple passing touchdowns in five of their last seven games, and for the season they have allowed the league’s sixth-highest rate of scoring through the air. Ryan threw for 313 yards and two scores the last time these teams met, with Julio Jones putting up 118 receiving yards on 12 targets and six catches. Carolina also has plenty to play for, and a close game inside the weather-controlled Mercedes-Benz Stadium could mean ample passing opportunity.
Rushing Scoring and Notes
2017 League Average Rushing Touchdown Points Rate: 20.4 percent
The Saints Go Marching In
On the road in Tampa, Mark Ingram, Alvin Kamara, and the Saints lead the rushing projections. The two backs each have 12 touchdowns, combining for more than half of the scores on one of the league’s highest-scoring offenses. The Saints carry the slate’s second-highest team total, and the Buccaneers are a perfect match for what New Orleans does well, allowing seven rushing scores in the last five games. New Orleans needs a win to ensure they take down the division and earn a home playoff game, so it’s unlikely they’ll back off from what has been such a winning strategy all season. Expect one or both of the Saints backs to hit paydirt in Week 17.
King Henry
Derrick Henry has struggled to get consistent snaps all season, but that might change in Week 17. DeMarco Murray has a serious knee tear, although he’s reportedly considering trying to play through it. Even if Murray’s active, it’s hard to imagine Henry not finally being the lead back. The Titans have a must-win game, but the opposing Jaguars are locked into the No. 3 seed. A first-round playoff game looms; thus, they have incentive to rest key players. An argument could be made that this will impact their defensive splits if players like Jalen Ramsey sit, but to date they have conceded far more points on the ground than through the air. Henry makes for an intriguing Week 17 option, especially if Murray is inactive.
Kicking Scoring and Notes
2017 League Average Kicking Points Rate: 33.0 percent
Kai Guy
Kai Forbath leads the kicking projections for Week 17, with Minnesota needing a win against Chicago to ensure a first-round bye. Forbath has had some accuracy struggles, but he has posted double-digit points in three straight games. The game is indoors in Minneapolis, so weather won’t be an issue.
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Ben Gretch is the Senior Fantasy Analyst at RotoViz, where he authors the weekly column Stealing Signals.
Photo Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports
