The Market Share Report presents team-specific usage splits in easy-to-analyze visual form. For more information, see the first piece in the series.
For weekly analysis using this data, check out our NFL homepage. I’ll tweet out some findings as well, if that’s your thing. This data is best used in conjunction with our suite of Tools, especially our Models. The pie charts represent the past four weeks of data, while the line graphs show each individual week.
Without further ado, here are the graphs. They’re interactive, so hover over anything for more data. Good luck in Week 17!
Snaps
A guy can’t touch the ball if he’s not on the field. Snap data is more important than a lot of people think. If 80 percent of success is showing up, then we want guys who actually show up on the field.
Notes
In last week’s MS Report, I wrote this:
Looking at a team’s pace is important for DFS. The Rams rank first this season in neutral pace of play, averaging 27.9 seconds per play under new head coach Sean McVay. That said, it’s also important to look at the opponent: The 49ers are the fastest team in the league on average this year, which works to speed up their opponent. As a result, the Jaguars, for example, who rank 24th in total pace on the year, rank first in projected play percentile in our NFL Models this week. The Jags will likely get more plays than usual, especially since the 49ers play so fast and the Jags rank fifth in defensive pace of play.
That was certainly the case: This game shot out, going for 77 combined points, and the Jaguars ran a ridiculous 86 offensive plays. Blake Bortles threw 50 passes and thus was able to post 28.38 DraftKings points despite throwing three interceptions. The lucky recipient of a SF matchup in Week 17? The Rams, although it is unclear how much they will actually play their starters. Per Matthew Freedman’s Week 17 Motivation piece, the Rams are playing for the No. 3 seed, which could give them home-field advantage in the NFC Championship. It’s unclear how much that matters to them and if they’ll give their starters significant run, but this is certainly a situation to monitor given the matchup.
Another team that could see more snaps than usual this week is the Denver Broncos. They’re facing the Chiefs, who are slow on offense, ranking 31st in seconds per play, but allow teams to play fast, ranking second in pace of play on defense. On offense, Denver ranks fifth in neutral pace of play this season, and in Week 8 against the Chiefs they ran 73 offensive plays. The caveat, as is the case with a ton of teams this week, is that Denver has nothing to play for. For more analysis on motivation and which teams might rest players, listen to the Week 17 Flex podcast.
Targets
Players compete for one ball on a per-play basis and there’s only so much of the pie to go around. Targets are important. Below the pie graph is a line graph showing the weekly target share over the past four weeks.
Notes
The most intriguing game on the Week 17 slate, given that it’s the only one in which both teams have something to play for, is the Panthers at Falcons. For the second straight week since returning from injury, Greg Olsen led the Panthers in target market share. The sample size of Devin Funchess without Kelvin Benjamin but with Olsen is still very small, but it’s not incredibly encouraging so far. In five games without Benjamin and without Olsen (or a limited version), Funchess saw target share marks of 30.4, 17.1, 50.0, 25.9, and 29.2 percent. In the two games with a healthy Olsen, he’s seen just 13.3 and 15.4 percent of the targets.
Larry Fitzgerald is second in the league over the past four weeks with 31.8 percent of his team’s targets. He got 15 (44.1 percent) last week, and he turned those into a 9-119-1 line and 30.7 DraftKings points. The Cardinals have absolutely nothing to play for, but they didn’t last week and still fed targets to the future Hall of Famer. He’s facing a banged-up Seattle secondary in what could be his last game in the NFL. Will they continue to feed him as a last hurrah? (Note: Fitz’s contract extends through next year, but it’s unclear if he’ll return.)
Air Yards
Air Yards as a metric helps us see how a receiver produces his receiving yards and how leveraged his targets are. The metric was created by RotoViz’s Josh Hermsmeyer. The charts show the market share of Air Yards.
Notes
Neither the Colts nor the Texans have anything to play for in Week 17. Neither did in Week 16 either, and that didn’t stop DeAndre Hopkins and T.Y. Hilton from continuing to dominate their team’s target and Air Yards market shares. They got 68.0 and 63.0 percent of the Air Yards, respectively, and Hilton needs just 48 yards this week to hit the 1,000-yard mark for the fifth straight year. This game has a low Vegas total of 41 points but could have some sneaky fantasy goodness.
Julio Jones bounced back after a disappointing Week 15 performance, putting up a 7-149-0 line on 11 targets in Week 16 against a solid Saints secondary. The Falcons need to win to make the playoffs, and they’ll get a motivated Carolina team at home, where Julio has historically been better throughout his career. Julio can definitely win on the outside in this matchup, and Matt Ryan has continued to feed him fantasy-friendly targets: He’s gotten 47.0, 47.0, and 53.0 percent of the Falcons’ Air Yards over the past three weeks.
Rushes
Again, there’s only so much of the rushing pie to go around.
Notes
All DFS users will be monitoring the Chargers’ backfield situation in Week 17 after Melvin Gordon went down with an ankle injury in Week 16. Backup RB Austin Ekeler was limited to special teams last week after breaking his hand, which means Branden Oliver would be next in line. As of Wednesday morning, Gordon says he is optimistic he’ll play in Week 17, and whoever is the workhorse has nice upside against a Raiders team that has nothing to play for and ranks 26th in defensive DVOA on the season.
If it was unclear last week who would be the workhorse in New England, the picture seems less fuzzy now. Dion Lewis got 70.6 percent of the team’s carries in Week 16 after getting 76.5 percent in Week 15. He crushed with his 29 total opportunities last week, posting a 24-129-1 line on the ground and a 5-24-1 line through the air. He’s set up well again in Week 17 as a massive 16.5-point home favorite against a Jets squad with nothing to play for; the Patriots are playing for the No. 1 seed.
Opportunities Inside the 10-Yard Line
Touchdowns are critical for success in guaranteed prize pools. Getting opportunities inside the 10-yard line is pretty much DFS gold.
Coming soon!
Bryan Mears is an editor at FantasyLabs and host of the Daily Fantasy Flex podcast.
Photo via Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
