The Christmas Breakdown offers data-driven analysis each week. For more of our weekly football content, visit our NFL homepage.
Quarterbacks
Nick Foles: $6,300 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel
Even with a backup quarterback, the Eagles are currently nine-point favorites at home against an Oakland team coming off of back-to-back losses. It’s concerning if the Eagles continue to play slower with Foles, but the Raiders secondary has also been incredibly poor this season, ranking dead last against the pass in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). The Eagles lead the slate with a 28.0-point implied total, but this game in general could have a lot of fantasy goodness with the highest combined pass funnel rating of Week 16.
Ben Roethlisberger: $6,700 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel
The Texans defense is below average overall, and the Steelers have the second-highest pass funnel rating in Week 16 and boast a healthy 26.75-point implied total. This bodes well for what the Steelers are doing on offense as of late. They have ramped up Big Ben’s volume since the start of the season, and over the last three weeks their 67.3 percent pass play rate leads the league.
Even with “Big Ben on the road” narratives capping his ownership levels, his pass attempts should remain intact even without Antonio Brown. He still has an embarrassment of riches at his disposal with Le’Veon Bell, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Martavis Bryant. On a per-game basis, Roethlisberger leads the league in pass attempts (38.0), red zone pass attempts (5.9), and passes of 20 or more yards (6.1 ), and he is seventh in Total QBR (63.1).
Running Backs
Le’Veon Bell: $9,900 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel
As always, Bell is a market-share monster, logging an 88.24 percent rushing share, a 20.22 percent team target share (second only to Brown), and a team-leading seven opportunities inside the 10-yard line over the past four weeks. Bell has been targeted an average of 11.6 times per game over his last five outings — hauling in eight of those per game — but he’s likely to regress some with four touchdowns over the past two games. It’s tough to say the same for Big Ben, but Le’Veon has been a beast on the road, averaging 23.93 PPG with a +3.25 Plus/Minus on DraftKings in 26 games since 2014.
Lamar Miller: $5,000 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel
Miller is no Bell from a talent perspective, but he is clearly the Houston running back to roster: He has absorbed 66.67 percent of the Texans carries but has only one opportunity inside the 10-yard line over the past four games. A potentially negative game script is a concern with Houston playing as eight-point home underdogs, but Miller has managed to creep up to third in the Texans’ target share tree over the past four weeks. Pittsburgh ranks 25th in pass DVOA against running backs.
Wide Receivers
JuJu Smith-Schuster: $6,400 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel
Life without AB could alter this entire slate. Most will consider Smith-Schuster, as he should run the majority of his routes against Pro Football Focus’ 119th-ranked cornerback, Kevin Johnson. However, Bryan Mears also had this compelling argument for Bryant in the Week 16 Market Share Report:
Antonio Brown has led the Steelers in Air Yards in almost every game this season. After he went down in Week 15, Martavis Bryant stepped into that role, getting a team-high 39.0 percent market share. He’s been one of the most disappointing players this season, but he did post a 4-59-1 line on six targets last week and should get fantasy-friendly opportunities moving forward.
Bryant ($5,600 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) is significantly cheaper than Smith-Schuster on DraftKings, but both pass catchers should be in a decent spot for volume. Per Evan Silva of Rotoworld:
Houston has allowed the NFL’s seventh-most 20-plus-yard pass plays (49) and a league-high 16 completions of 40-plus yards.
DeAndre Hopkins: $8,400 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel
He was limited in Friday’s practice (toe) — you’ll need to monitor his status in our NFL News Feed — but it’s the same injury with which Hopkins played 53-of-57 snaps in Week 15 against the Jaguars and dropped a 4-80-1 line on Jalen Ramsey. That was not the first time this year that Hopkins proved to be matchup proof, as he also scored on Patrick Peterson in Week 11. The Steelers have allowed the ninth-fewest FanDuel points to wide receivers, but Hopkins’ matchup against Artie Burns is very winnable, as long as T.J Yates keeps targeting him heavily. In just two games this year with Yates under center, Hopkins has averaged 14.5 targets, 114.5 reception yards, and 24.2 FanDuel PPG. He’s an especially strong play on that platform, where he has a 98 percent Bargain Rating.
Tight Ends
Zach Ertz: $6,000 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel
This is a great spot for the Eagles passing game, and that extends to Ertz, as the Raiders rank 23rd in pass DVOA against tight ends. They’ve allowed the most yards and third-most receptions to the position, surrendering the seventh-most DraftKings points.
Ertz could see massive ownership on this short slate, which means you could gain an edge over the field if you fade him and he posts a dud. Still, that’s scary: He owns easily the top raw points projection at the position and is the No. 1 DraftKings tight end in each of the Three Donkeys Models.
Good luck this week and be sure to research with our suite of Tools.
Photo Credit: Philip G. Pavely-USA TODAY Sports
