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The stigma surrounding this event will be the toughness of the course, The Championship Course at PGA National. However, when you break down the course scoring, you can find trends in the data that can help you to frame your research going into this week’s slate.
The Par 3’s
The Champ course has possibly the hardest Par 3’s on tour, with all four holes always having a field scoring average over par.
Par 3 Scoring Average
| 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | |
| PGA National | 3.14 | 3.10 | 3.13 |
| Tour Average | 3.04 | 3.06 | 3.06 |
These are holes where players will easily surrender strokes. Setting Par 3 scoring average and Par 3 birdie or better percentage might be a first instinct move here, and when trying to determine which players to take from the value pool, these stats could be useful. However, looking back at the past three winners at this event, none of them ranked highly on the Par 3’s. Last year, Harrington was +1 on the Par 3’s for the week, and the two winners prior to that both played the Par 3’s at even par for the event.
Target: Part 3 Scoring Average, Bogey Avoidance
Ignore: Par 3 Birdie or Better
The Par 5’s
On the other hand, the two Par 5’s are historically the easiest holes on the course. With the field-scoring average almost always being well under par, they have also surrendered a healthy amount of eagles (with the exception of 2015, which had six total eagles).
Eagles Per Round (on Par 5’s)
| 2014 | 2013 | |
| PGA National | 2.75 | 3.5 |
| Tour Average | 2.3 | 3 |
There are only two Par 5’s on the course, so there are limited opportunities to capitalize on eagle chances. The two holes are also rather short by tour standards, giving a larger percentage of the field a chance at getting on in two.
Target: Par 5 Birdie or Better, GIR from 200+, Going for the Green %
Ignore: Driving Distance
The Par 4’s
The Par 4’s have historically been difficult, with the majority of them having a field-scoring average over par year in and year out. The 6th hole, at 479 yards, was statistically the sixth-toughest hole on Tour last season. However, they seem to be the real difference maker at this course. The past three winners have finished -5, -6, and -6 respectively on the Par 4’s for the event.
Par 4 Scoring (2015)
| Hole | Yards | Scoring Avg | +/- Avg |
| 1 | 365 | 3.99 | -0.01 |
| 2 | 464 | 4.1 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 395 | 4.05 | 0.05 |
| 6 | 479 | 4.42 | 0.42 |
| 8 | 427 | 4.02 | 0.02 |
| 9 | 421 | 4.01 | 0.01 |
| 10 | 508 | 4.31 | 0.31 |
| 11 | 450 | 4.28 | 0.28 |
| 12 | 438 | 4.1 | 0.1 |
| 13 | 388 | 3.98 | -0.02 |
| 14 | 465 | 4.32 | 0.32 |
| 16 | 434 | 4.2 | 0.2 |
Being able to convert on Par 4’s is going to be crucial given the difficulty of the Par 3’s and there being only two Par 5’s from which to score easily on. Emphasize stats that indicate an ability to get a birdie on Par 4’s with regularity. With the Bermudagrass fairways, driving accuracy has not historically been a valid indicator of success (the past two winners finished at 55%). A combo of GIR, GIR from non-fairway and SG:P represent opportunities to score.
For cash-game lineups, increase the focus on scrambling and sand saves. Given the difficulty of these holes, the amount of bogies that players make in this event, being able to save par is going to be crucial. The top-five players here have historically had very high sand save percentage (Henley in 2014 being an outlier). The abundance of greenside bunkers on the course will cause problems for players with a poor sand game, and it can get messy quickly.
Target: GIR, GIR Non-Fairway, SG:P, Sand Save %
Ignore: Driving Accuracy
Summary
Par 3 and 4 scoring will be key to watch. Par 4 scoring historically has been a strong indicator of the winner. Solid Par 3 play will be important for cash-game consideration – avoiding adding strokes there will help players to make a tight cut line.
Target: Par 3 Scoring Average, Bogey Avoidance, GIR from 200+, GIR, SG:P
Ignore: Par 3 Birdie or Better, Driving Distance, Driving Accuracy
