It’s only five games, sure, but a powerhouse nonetheless: no game is implied to score fewer than 204 points in tonight’s slate. Let’s do this.
Orlando Magic (-5.5) at Philadelphia 76ers
Implied Total: 106.3 – 100.8, O/U: 207
Much is made about the volatility in Scott Skiles’ rotations (and rightfully so), but note Victor Oladipo and Evan Fournier have been as sturdy as they come since Tobias Harris’ exit — they’ve averaged 41.4 and 38.2 minutes in their last two games. Considering Philadelphia has allowed +1.7 points above salary-based expectations to off-ball guards, both Oladipo – second-highest projected floor at his position — and Fournier, who includes a Bargain Rating of 93% at FanDuel, should warrant strong consideration in cash and tournaments alike. The same can be said for Nikola Vucevic at DraftKings where he makes for arguably the most valuable player at his position: his 13 Pro Trends lead all centers in this slate.
Although their Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to shooting guards has been noted, Philadelphia has been even worse as it pertains to defense at the point: they’ve allowed +4.8 points above expectations at the position. That might scream Elfrid Payton, but Brandon Jennings has actually recorded only -0.5 fewer minutes than the former since joining their team. His usage rate of 26.3% over that time is also second highest for Orlando despite coming off their bench. Despite a Projected Plus/Minus of -1.5 at DraftKings due to his almost-immediate hike in salary, Jennings is still considered a value at FanDuel where he includes a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Neither are considered cash options, but Nerlens Noel and Jahlil Okafor remain the strongest tournament plays for Philadelphia. Having exceeded expectations by +7.18 points prior to his last performance, Noel accumulated only 16.75 DraftKings points in 18.6 minutes against Dallas. That’s all the more reason to roster him (albeit sparingly) throughout GPPs. Okafor has simply been slated with a terrific matchup, as the Magic have allowed +1.5 points above expectations to opposing centers.
New Orleans Pelicans at Washington Wizards (-4.5)
Implied Total: 106 – 110.5, O/U: 216.5
Outside of his last performance in which he failed to meet expectations by -17.49 points, John Wall exceeded expectations in the nine games prior by +8.55. Considering his inexplicable decline in salary as of late, Wall, now implied to score 41.49 points, is considered an elite cash option against a Pelicans defense allowing +1.6 points above expectations at his position. Marcin Gortat should be considered an equivalent option as his projected floor of 17.6 is highest among centers.
Skip to the final paragraph of the next game if wanting to read more on Anthony Davis. This slot is more reserved for Jrue Holiday, who has the highest Projected Plus/Minus among point guards. Having exceeded expectations by a ridiculous +17.17 points over his last five performances, Holiday is a strong cash option no matter where you play due to his Projected Plus/Minus of at least +5.0 across sites. Washington has also been decimated by opposing point guards, allowing an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.4 points at the position.
Sacramento Kings at Denver Nuggets (-1)
Implied Total: 110.8 – 111.8, O/U: 222.5
No team has allowed more DraftKings points to opposing forwards (both small and power) over the last five games than Sacramento. That alone makes Danilo Gallinari, who exceeded expectations by +9.3 points in his last performance against the Kings, cash eligible. Though strictly a tournament option, Will Barton is also worth considering as he’s logged 31.3 minutes in back-to-back performances since Randy Foye’s departure. It bodes well for the entirety of Denver’s back court that Sacramento has allowed +3.8 points above salary-based expectations to off-ball guards.
Along with 13 Pro Trends, Rajon Rondo’s Bargain Rating of 90% at DraftKings (linked to the highest-implied total of the night, mind you) almost ensures he be rostered in cash games. In the decision to pay up for DeMarcus Cousins or Anthony Davis, however, choosing the former seems to coincide with my own personal favorite tournament method of choosing the “best of the rest.” With a projected floor +3.1 points greater than that of Davis, New Orleans’ star forward will assuredly have a higher ownership due to 1) his price (being -$1000 cheaper than Cousins and all) and 2) his previous performance of (gulp) 93.5 DraftKings points. It’s a hard fade, sure, but note Cousins’ 12 Pro Trends are still seven more than Davis has accrued.
Houston Rockets at Utah Jazz (-5)
Implied Total: 99.5 – 104.5, O/U: 204
While most will likely attempt to find exposure towards Houston, it need not be forgotten that Utah is actually favored by five points in this particular matchup. I’m admittedly not looking for much here, as this game has the lowest-implied total of the night, but it’s a terrific spot for Rudy Gobert as Houston has the highest Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to centers in tonight’s slate. I would actually consider him over Dwight Howard despite the latter’s 93% Bargain Rating at DraftKings – Howard, after all, has an absurd Dud Percentage of 50% (over eight performances) in the past month.
If looking for an off-the-radar tournament play, it doesn’t get more outside-of-the-box than Shelvin Mack. Although a projected floor (3.0 points) that should only be utilized in GPPs, note Mack logged the most time at point guard for Utah in their last matchup. His salary already implies he score at least 15.27 points in order to return value, but it remains an advantageous spot as Utah will be playing with a pace differential of +6.6.
Brooklyn Nets at Portland Trailblazers (-11.5)
Implied Total: 99.5 – 111, O/U: 210.5
With this implied total having risen +5.5 points since initially opening, I think an antifragile strategy for tournaments would actually be to stack the Nets.
(Wait, don’t exit this screen! Just hear me out for one second…)
It doesn’t seem like it due to how poor they are as a whole, but Brooklyn has actually shown a bit of stability in their last two performances. For starters, Donald Sloan has logged 30 minutes in back-to-back games. He’s attempted only 8.0 field goals in both, but as stated time and time again, volume (or in this case, minutes) trumps efficiency. But he’s strictly a tournament play. Thaddeus Young and Brook Lopez, who have exceeded expectations by +4.79 and +7.11 points over their last 10 games, are elite options no matter the format. Note that Lopez still includes a Bargain Rating of 98% at DraftKings.
With a projected floor +3.1 points greater than anyone else at his position, Damian Lillard makes for arguably one of the strongest cash plays of the night. Now, I know what you’re thinking. Duh, it’s Lillard I’m gonna roster him seven times in the same lineup. Even having exceeded expectations by +15.63 points in his last five games, however, he’ll undoubtedly have the highest ownership (along with Anthony Davis) in tournaments. That alone should be enough to, at the least, limit exposure, unlike your cash lineup(s) in which his Bargain Rating of 81% at FanDuel almost implores you unleash him.
Good luck!
