Consider this your one-stop shop for all things concerning the Week 16 DFS slate. As always, consult our tools below for an even deeper dive into the numbers. Good luck!
Models | Vegas Dashboard | Matchups | Injuries
Positional breakdowns
Quarterback
Jimmy Garoppolo has 8.5 adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A) in his career. In his three starts with the 49ers he’s completed 68.1 percent of his passes for 1,008 yards and an 8.5 AY/A. The 49ers have a brutal matchup against the elite Jaguars defense led by Pro Bowl corners Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye, but they’re at home and, per Sports Insights, the sharps are on the 49ers. San Francisco plays at the league’s fastest pace (25.44 seconds per play) and has the fourth-highest passing rate (63.1 percent). Garoppolo will have little ownership, but — based on Wilson’s 24.84-point performance against the Jags in Week 14 — Jimmy G. warrants GPP exposure. Just call him “Jimmy GPP.”
Wide Receiver
Larry Fitzgerald has caught passes from Drew Stanton, Blaine Gabbert, and Ryan Lindley during the 18 games Carson Palmer has missed since joining the Cardinals in 2013. His ageless old-man game has helped him remain effective with anyone and everyone under center and he’s on his way to another top-10 PPR season. Stanton will be the man at QB this week and he’ll look to keep Fitzgerald rolling at home:
- Fitz at home since 2015 (23 games): 18.4 DK PPG, +4.0 Plus/MInus, 65% Consistency, 26% Upside, 11.3% Ownership
- Fitz away since 2015 (22 games): 15.5 DK PPG, +0.8 Plus/Minus, 50% Consistency, 4% Upside, 11% Ownership
Defense and Special Teams
The Los Angeles Chargers hit the road to play the New York Jets as 6.5-point favorites. The last five defenses facing the Jets have averaged 10.20 PPG with a +2.72 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and a +3.31 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. Meanwhile, in their last five games the Chargers have averaged 12.60 PPG with a +5.16 Plus/Minus on DraftKings. It’s safe to say the Chargers’ matchup is a good one. Prior to last week’s stinker in Kansas City, the Chargers had averaged 15.75 PPG with a +8.21 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and 14.67 PPG with a +7.47 Plus/Minus since their 10th game of this season.
Read more in the D/ST Breakdown
Everything Else You Need To Know
Last week the Chiefs ranked dead last among all teams with just one play to a skill position player over the past four games inside the 10-yard line. That changed in a hurry in Week 15, as they ran eight such plays. Seven of those went to Kareem Hunt — five on the ground and two through the air — and he snapped out of his fantasy funk in a big way, going for 42.6 DraftKings points. He’s still a market share monster, owning 85.2 percent of his team’s rushes over the past four weeks, and he could continue to benefit from OC Matt Nagy now calling the plays. Read more market share notes in this week’s piece
The Bills have held opponents below their Vegas expectations in a league-high 10 games. They’re +12.5 road dogs against the Patriots, who currently lead the slate with an implied total of 29.75 points. The Pats have a -0.77 Vegas Plus/Minus and have hit expectations in just six of 14 games. Because of the Bills — who have a top-five PFF cover corner in rookie Tre’Davious White and two top-three cover safeties in Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde — quarterback Tom Brady could be a contrarian fade. Read about that concerning matchup for the Patriots and the DFS implications of other recent trends in this week’s Vegas Outliers piece
A week after a demoralizing loss, Seattle heads to Dallas as five-point underdogs. Russell Wilson put up a dud in Week 15 but still has nine games of at least 24 DraftKings points in his past 12. That’s in large part because he accounts for such a high degree of Seattle’s offense, having thrown or rushed for 33 of their 34 offensive touchdowns. Dallas has conceded the third-highest rate of points through passing touchdowns while generally keeping teams from scoring on the ground, rates that align with Seattle’s tendencies as an offense. The disastrous home performance for the Seahawks offense in Week 15 might serve to keep ownership relatively muted on Wilson, who could find himself in need of a fourth quarter comeback, a situation where he’s proven time and again he can rack up fantasy points. Read more in the Week 16 Deconstructing Vegas Lines piece
Will the 0-14 Browns get their first win of the year in Week 16 again this season? Last year the team was able to pull off an unlikely win at home against the Chargers. This year they finish the season on the road with games against the Bears and Steelers. The Bears have opened as -7.0 favorites, but the game has a slate-low over/under of 38.0 points, there’s often value on underdogs in low-scoring games, and the Browns have gotten the supermajority of the early bets. If the Browns are to get a win, it will almost certainly need to be in Week 16. Although owner Jimmy Haslam and new general manager John Dorsey have expressed their support for Jackson and intent for him to remain with the team next year, it’s hard to imagine a winless coach keeping his job. Then again, we’re talking about the Browns. Jackson just might be the first coach ever to ride a 1-31 record into his third season with a team: However this works out, we’re witnessing history. Read more about how the biggest stories from Week 15 will impact this weekend’s games in The Forward Pass
Finally, Ian Hartitz updates practice notes and projected game statuses all week on our Injury Dashboard. You’ll want to keep this page up throughout the weekend to stay up to date on all injuries ahead of the Week 16 slate. NFL Week 16 Injury Dashboard
