The weekly Funnel Defense Ratings uses advanced data to analyze situations in which teams are more likely to pass or run than they usually do. For more of our weekly football content, visit the NFL homepage.
Earlier this season I introduced a new funnel metric; see that piece for the explanation on how I created it. The metric has some hits and misses, and there are a couple reasons it’s best thought of as descriptive rather than predictive. First, I don’t incorporate Vegas data (although I’ll include it in the ratings table below), mostly because I don’t have exact numbers on historical run/pass ratios based on Vegas spreads and implied team totals. That’s a large project perhaps for the offseason. Second, and this is important to remember, some teams simply refuse to funnel production to either part of their offense. We saw this with the Steelers in Week 5: Although the opposing Jaguars boasted an elite secondary and were the best against the pass in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), Ben Roethlisberger chucked it 55 times.
I’ve given lots of my thoughts on the pros and cons of this analysis in past pieces, and we’ve written about how sometimes coaches suck at coaching football. Instead of yet another rant, let’s dive right into the Week 16 funnel ratings.
Potential Shootout Games
Three games stand out as potential shootouts: Raiders at Eagles, Giants at Cardinals, and Dolphins at Chiefs. Among those, only the first has a high Vegas total (47.0), whereas the other two — especially Giants-Cardinals — could be sneaky spots to target.
The Eagles seemingly did not miss a beat in Week 15 after losing MVP hopeful Carson Wentz, putting up 34 points in a road win versus the Giants. Backup QB Nick Foles went 24-of-38 and threw for 237 yards and four touchdowns. The one big difference is they did play a bit slower, totaling only 68 offensive snaps after going for 91, 75, and 78 over the prior three weeks. Still, this is a great spot for them against a Raiders defense that isn’t great in either facet of the game but is especially atrocious against the pass. They rank dead last in pass DVOA and certainly don’t have a way to handle Zach Ertz, ranking 23rd specifically against TEs.
The Giants-Cardinals affair is on the main slate (unlike the Christmas evening Eagles-Raiders game), and the Giants were the other half of the valuable Philly shootout in Week 15. Eli Manning was the second-highest scoring quarterback of the main slate, finishing with 31.4 DraftKings points, and his main pass-catcher, Sterling Shepard, was the second-highest scoring WR, finishing with 33.9 points on a ridiculous 11-139-1 line on 16 targets. In this week’s Market Share Report I discussed the Giants’ fast pace in that game — they ran 88 offensive snaps — and they now rank fourth in total pace of play this season. The Cardinals are ninth themselves, although it will be interesting to see whether their offense takes an even bigger step back with Drew Stanton under center instead of Blaine Gabbert. Still, given the funnel potential and pace of play in this matchup, it could certainly go over the low 40.5 Vegas total.
Perhaps the most interesting game on the slate is the Falcons at Saints, which easily has the week’s highest Vegas total at 52.5 points. The Falcons and Saints rank 23rd and 28th in pace of play this season, and in Week 14 this game, which had a 51.5-point total at close, went for just 37 points. We’ve discussed all year how balanced the Saints offense has been: They rank just 20th in pass play percentage, throwing 56.1 percent of the time. Atlanta is behind them, ranking 24th and throwing 54.9 percent of the time, and they have Devonta Freeman back and healthy now. These offenses are loaded with talent and can put up points, but the sharp side of this line is likely the under.
Notable Potential Funnels
The Titans rank 11th in run play percentage, and in Week 16 they face a fairly strong run funnel defense in the LA Rams, who rank a stout third against the pass but just 19th against the run. The Titans would ideally like to pound the ball, but unfortunately their status as seven-point dogs could put them in negative game script. Interestingly, over the past two years the Titans have been a dog 12 times, and their two RBs have had very different splits in those games:
Even if you restrict the trend to just this season, DeMarco Murray has played significantly better, likely due to his superior pass-game ability. It’s unlikely either of these players will go off, but this does seem like the way to beat the Rams.
Overall, there doesn’t seem to be great run funnel situations this week: Of the top-seven run funnel situations, every single one is an underdog. Instead, it might be wise to target some pass funnel situations. The Chargers own the week’s highest pass funnel rating against the Jets, who rank 13th against the run but 22nd against the pass. They’re coming off an absolutely brutal game against the Chiefs in Arrowhead, in which they scored just 13 points and Philip Rivers threw three interceptions. Still, this pass offense ranks fifth in the league, and Rivers had exceeded salary-based expectations in five straight games before Week 15’s dud. They could bounce back in a huge way and could have lower-than-expected ownership given the public’s recency bias.
The Steelers have the second-highest pass funnel rating in Week 16 against a Texans squad that has been mediocre in both facets of the game. The Steelers have really increased their pass play percentage since the beginning of the year — they rank first in the league over the past three games, throwing it a whopping 67.3 percent of the time — although that might not continue with No. 1 WR Antonio Brown out. Still, they have a ton of weapons for Ben Roethlisberger, and it’s unlikely they’ll do the right thing anyway (see my rant in the intro). Big Ben does have mythical home/road splits at this point, but the pure pass volume is hard to discount right now. Le’Veon Bell should be incredibly popular sans Brown, but don’t forget about the other pass-catchers as well, such as JuJu Smith-Schuster and Martavis Bryant.
Good luck, and research the Week 16 games for yourself with our Tools and Models.
——
Bryan Mears is an editor at FantasyLabs and host of the Daily Fantasy Flex podcast.
