Last week, I looked at how teams have performed against their Vegas implied totals to see which offenses and defenses the betting market has most misvalued so far this season. This piece is Part 2 and will look at the overall volatility of the betting market on a night-to-night basis.
The Importance of Measuring Volatility
One thing I was very curious about was whether the data from Part 1, which shows the Vegas Plus/Minus averages for the season, is still useful. Is the betting market still off? Or has it adjusted to these teams? Measuring volatility is incredibly important for DFS, as player ownership is highly correlated with Vegas implied totals. Here’s the average ownership percentage since 2014 for players based on implied team total:
While the NBA is considered one of the more predictive sports given the large sample size of the season and large number of possessions per game, it’s still highly volatile on a night-to-night basis.
It’s hard for bettors and bookmakers alike to adjust to all of the offensive and defensive trends when the variables are constantly changing. So knowing which teams have a tendency to exceed/fall short of their Vegas expectations is highly valuable when playing in DFS tournaments.
Some Notably Volatile Teams
Let’s jump around the league and look at some especially volatile teams so far this season. (If you’d like to look at volatility charts for every team, you can find interactive graphs at the bottom of the story.) First up …
Toronto Raptors
They’ve missed their implied total by double digits 13 times out of their 33 games. That means they’ve been either way more valuable or way less valuable than their implied total suggested in nearly 40 percent of their games.
They are not the most volatile team, however. That distinction belongs to the …
Utah Jazz
The Jazz have missed their Vegas implication by double digits in 16 of 36 games. Put another way: In almost half of their games, they have majorly rewarded or disappointed fantasy owners because of their volatility. They’ve been a very odd team and it’s clear they haven’t yet figured out how to use their personnel. For example, their offensive numbers with Rudy Gobert on the floor have been atrocious:
- With Gobert on: 101.5 Offensive Rating
- With Gobert off: 111.8 Offensive Rating
For reference, that’s the difference between the No. 3 and No. 27 offense this season. Unfortunately, their defense is equally terrible without the stud rim protector:
- With Gobert on: 105.4 Defensive Rating
- With Gobert off: 110.7 Defensive Rating
That “off” number is horrible: The Kings currently rank last in the NBA with a 109.4 Defensive Rating. That means when Gobert has been off the court — and he’s been on and off fairly often this season — they’ve been the worst defense in the league. It seems the betting market has yet to catch up to this trend this season; they’re clearly one of the more volatile defenses with Gobert out, especially when Derrick Favors also misses time. As the Jazz try to figure out their best combinations this season, and it still seems to be a major work in process — they got blown out by 25 points on Wednesday versus the Warriors — expect more volatility. The betting and DFS implications here are obvious, yet huge.
Chicago Bulls
The Bulls were predicted to struggle after they shipped out Jimmy Butler for a bunch of young guys, most of whom (Kris Dunn and Zach LaVine) began the year injured. Perhaps it’s because of their youth, but they’ve been incredibly volatile and have missed their implication by double digits in 15 of 34 games.
Chicago’s opponents have been equally as volatile, falling 10-plus points above or below their implication 11 different times. The Bulls’ relatively nondescript average Plus/Minus (+0.91) shows why examining volatility is so important. One way or another, Chicago has had a major impact on many DFS tournaments this season because of their inconsistent ways.
Denver Nuggets and Washington Wizards
These two teams own the most volatile defenses this season. The Nuggets’ opponents have scored 10-plus points more/less than their implied total 16 times, while the Wizards’ opponents have done so in 17 games.
The Nuggets are particularly intriguing, as they don’t really have a rim protector on the roster and yet have been dominant defensively of late. While they are an uninspiring 21st in defensive efficiency on the year, allowing 106.6 points per 100 possessions, they rank eighth over their past nine games, allowing 103.1 points/100. Over their past four, they’re second, allowing 99.3/100, and just five days ago they held the Warriors to 81 points. While Nikola Jokic and Mason Plumlee aren’t known as great defenders, it’s possible that Denver playing them together recently has clogged up the lane and improved their defense. Gary Harris is a solid defender on the wing and Torrey Craig, who has played in Australia for the past three years, has been excellent defensively as well. The betting market may be underrating this unit currently and it could get even better once Paul Millsap returns, although he’s not expected back until after the All-Star break.
A few other interesting notes
The offenses that have the most double-digit misses? The Jazz, Magic, and Bulls. The Rockets have been the least volatile team, falling short or exceeding their implication by double digits just seven times. On defense, the most volatile teams have been the Wizards, Magic, Heat, and Nuggets. Meanwhile, the Hawks and Knicks have been incredibly steady defensively (five double-digit occurrences each).
Is the Betting Market Improving?
One last point: Sometimes there are teams that either smash or go way under their Vegas implication — like by 20-plus points. In the first full slate of the season (Oct. 18), the Pacers (+30.3), Nets (+24.2), and Hawks (+20.5) all went way over their implied totals, whereas the Suns (-32.3) went way under. A team missing its implied total by 20-plus points is huge and has important implications for both betting and DFS, but do they only happen at the very beginning of the season?
No. Here’s a graph showing the largest Vegas/Plus “miss” (in absolute value) for each slate this year. Even on shorter slates, there has yet to be a day in which all teams were within 10 points of their implication:
This clearly shows that there’s a huge miss every single day, which means we should probably eschew using Vegas implications as religion when it comes to GPPs. Capitalizing on the volatility — even knowing it exists and adjusting ownership levels with your NBA DFS lineups — can be very profitable if you follow the trends.
Every Team’s Vegas Plus/Minus: Offense
Click through the tabs at the top to see how each team’s offense has fared on a game-by-game basis compared to Vegas expectation.
Every Team’s Vegas Plus/Minus: Defense
Click through the tabs at the top to see how each team’s defense has fared on a game-by-game basis compared to Vegas expectation.
Photo via Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports
