The Market Share Report presents team-specific usage splits in easy-to-analyze visual form. For more information, see the first piece in the series.
For weekly analysis using this data, check out our NFL homepage. I’ll tweet out some findings as well, if that’s your thing. This data is best used in conjunction with our suite of Tools, especially our Models. The pie charts represent the past four weeks of data, while the line graphs show each individual week.
Without further ado, here are the graphs. They’re interactive, so hover over anything for more data. Good luck in Week 16!
Snaps
A guy can’t touch the ball if he’s not on the field. Snap data is more important than a lot of people think. If 80 percent of success is showing up, then we want guys who actually show up on the field.
Notes
- Looking at a team’s pace is important for DFS. The Rams rank first this season in neutral pace of play, averaging 27.9 seconds per play under new head coach Sean McVay. That said, it’s also important to look at the opponent: The 49ers are the fastest team in the league on average this year, which works to speed up their opponent. As a result, the Jaguars, for example, who rank 24th in total pace on the year, rank first in projected play percentile in our NFL Models this week. The Jags will likely get more plays than usual, especially since the 49ers play so fast and the Jags rank fifth in defensive pace of play.
- The New York Giants have played incredibly fast especially the past two weeks, going for 88 and 80 offensive snaps. Sterling Shepard has been on the field for nearly all of those, playing 85 and 77 snaps, and he led the team with 28.1 percent of the targets for the first time since Week 10. His 11-139-1 line on 16 targets was one of the best of the week, and, while he has a tough on-paper matchup against the Cardinals in Week 16, he should mostly avoid stud CB Patrick Peterson by running the majority of his routes from the slot.
Targets
Players compete for one ball on a per-play basis and there’s only so much of the pie to go around. Targets are important. Below the pie graph is a line graph showing the weekly target share over the past four weeks.
Notes
- Pass-catchers who own 30-plus percent of their team’s targets are typically studs. The players that qualify over the past four weeks are DeAndre Hopkins, Julio Jones, A.J. Green, Michael Thomas, Keenan Allen, and . . . Robby Anderson? The Jets wideout got 12 targets — a 35.3 percent market share — last week and has now exceeded his salary-based expectations on DraftKings in seven of his past 10 games. He’ll have one of his hardest tests of the year against the Chargers secondary, but a $5,000 price tag for a ‘volume stud’ like Anderson is certainly worth considering.
- Cam Newton and the Panthers are in another smash spot in Week 16 against a Tampa Bay defense that ranks 31st in total DVOA and 29th against the pass. Devin Funchess had been Cam’s clear No. 1 option since the departure of Kelvin Benjamin, and he still leads the team with 28.6 percent of the Panthers’ targets over the past four weeks. Still, he burned a lot of users with his 1-19-0 line on four targets last week. A part of that was due to now-dad-runner Greg Olsen, who got a whopping 40 percent of the targets. Funchess versus Olsen will be an important question in Week 16.
Air Yards
Air Yards as a metric helps us see how a receiver produces his receiving yards and how leveraged his targets are. The metric was created by RotoViz’s Josh Hermsmeyer. The charts show the market share of Air Yards.
Notes
- DeAndre Hopkins had a stupid-high 84.0 percent of the Texans’ Air Yards in Week 15, which was the second-highest single week market share number all year (Tyreek Hill had 94.0 percent of the Chief’s Air Yards in Week 3). Hopkins leads all players in market share of Air Yards over the past four weeks, and he also leads all players in total target market share. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in nine of his past 10 games, posting an average DraftKings Plus/Minus of +6.51 in that time frame. Who cares who his quarterback is at this point; the dude is a beast.
- Antonio Brown has led the Steelers in Air Yards in almost every game this season. After he went down in Week 15, Martavis Bryant stepped into that role, getting a team-high 39.0 percent market share. He’s been one of the most disappointing players this season, but he did post a 4-59-1 line on six targets last week and should get fantasy-friendly opportunities moving forward. He gets a Houston defense in Week 16 that looks to be a pass funnel unit, as they rank sixth in rush DVOA but just 23rd in pass DVOA.
Rushes
Again, there’s only so much of the rushing pie to go around.
Notes
- Samaje Perine is an interesting fantasy player. On one hand, he’s failed to hit value in three straight games and hasn’t gone for double-digit DraftKings points in any of those contests. On the other hand, he’s fourth among all running backs over the past month with 82.7 percent of his team’s rushes. That type of market share volume is tough to ignore, especially as a home favorite in Week 16. That said, he is facing a pass funnel defense in the Broncos, and new pass-catching back Kapri Bibbs looked excellent last week, catching all four of his targets for 47 yards and a touchdown.
- This probably isn’t a debate, but we should fully expect Ezekiel Elliott to get all the touches now that he’s back. He got over 80 percent of the rushes in every week but one that he played this season, and the final two weeks he posted market share numbers of 96.4 and 91.7 percent. He also got around 10 percent of the targets on average. He’s an incredibly tough fade in Week 16 at only $8,000 on DraftKings against a reeling Seahawks defense.
Opportunities Inside the 10-Yard Line
Touchdowns are critical for success in guaranteed prize pools. Getting opportunities inside the 10-yard line is pretty much DFS gold.
Notes
- Last week the Chiefs ranked dead last among all teams with just one play to a skill position player over the past four games inside the 10-yard line. That changed in a hurry in Week 15, as they ran eight such plays. Seven of those went to Kareem Hunt — five on the ground and two through the air — and he snapped out of his fantasy funk in a big way, going for 42.6 DraftKings points. He’s still a market share monster, owning 85.2 percent of his team’s rushes over the past four weeks, and he could continue to benefit from OC Matt Nagy now calling the plays.
- Over the past four weeks, five players are tied for the most opportunities inside the 10-yard line with 10. One of those players is Patriots RB Rex Burkhead, who missed practice Thursday and is not expected to suit up Sunday. That leaves a big red zone hole to be filled for the league’s top offense. Dion Lewis is the obvious candidate — he has five opportunities inside the 10 during that time frame — but the Patriots will make bruiser Mike Gillislee active again in Burkhead’s absence. Whether or not he vultures touchdowns in Week 16 will certainly affect DFS tournaments.
Bryan Mears is an editor at FantasyLabs and host of the Daily Fantasy Flex podcast.
