Vegas Outliers provides a quick snapshot of year-to-date Vegas trends and their daily fantasy implications for the week’s slate of NFL games. For more of our weekly football content, visit our NFL homepage.
Every NFL team has played 14 games, and the various races for division championships and playoff spots are in full swing. To understand how teams have performed vis-à-vis Vegas, I’ve collected the point spreads and game totals for Weeks 1-15 and put them next to the year-to-date production data.
Vegas Plus/Minus
I’ve created a Vegas Plus/Minus metric (similar to our proprietary daily fantasy Plus/Minus metric) that compares actual production in points per game (PPG) with the totals implied by the Vegas data. A positive number means that a team scores more points than its implied total; a negative number, fewer points. If a team hits its Vegas-implied expectations in a game, that counts as a win; if a team fails to hit expectations, that’s a loss.
After their 42-7 road victory over the Seahawks, the Rams are first in the league with 31.29 PPG and a +7.25 Vegas Plus/Minus. They’ve hit their implied Vegas expectations in a near-elite 10 games. The Rams opened as -7.0 road favorites, but the line has moved to -6.5 even though they’ve gotten the supermajority of the early bets, suggesting that sharp money is on the opposing Titans. I was on the Todd Gurley train last week — and he balled out for 180 yards and four touchdowns — but he could have inflated ownership this week because of his recent production, and the Titans have held opposing backfields to the fourth-fewest fantasy points with 21.4 DraftKings and 18.3 FanDuel PPG. It’s not wise to fade the Rams fully, but caution is warranted. As Warren Buffett once said, “Fade running backs when others are greedy,” or something like that.
After another underwhelming yet victorious performance, the Falcons are last in the league with a -3.91 Vegas Plus/Minus. Joining them in the basement are the Cardinals, who have hit their implied expectations in a league-low three games. It doesn’t help that quarterback Blaine Gabbert has completed just 51.5 percent of his passes in the three weeks since his #RevengeGame against the Jaguars. The Texans are sixth with a +3.16 Vegas Plus/Minus, but they’re dead last at -5.53 in the eight games not started by rookie phenom Deshaun Watson. Whether it’s Tom Savage or T.J. Yates at quarterback on Christmas, their offense will likely have a hard time hitting the 17 points for which they’re implied against the Steelers.
Vegas Opponent Plus/Minus
When thinking about game script, spreads, and over/unders, we should take defensive performance into account, so I’ve created a Vegas Opponent Plus/Minus. A positive number means that a team allows fewer points than its opponent’s implied total; a negative number, more points. If a team holds an opponent below its implied total, that’s a win; if a team allows an opponent to hit expectations, that’s a loss.
Even after their 30-13 loss to the Chiefs on Saturday, the Chargers still lead the league with a +4.21 Vegas Opponent Plus/Minus. There’s not much to say about them: Their pass defense is amazing. They have two edge defenders in Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram with top-five pass rushing Pro Football Focus grades and three starting corners in Casey Hayward, Trevor Williams, and Desmond King with top-12 PFF coverage grades. Another notable team is the Bills, who (along with the Chargers) have held opponents below their Vegas expectations in a league-high 10 games. They’re +12.5 road dogs against the Patriots, who currently lead the slate with an implied total of 29.75 points. The Pats have a -0.77 Vegas Plus/Minus and have hit expectations in just six of 14 games. Because of the Bills — who have a top-five PFF cover corner in rookie Tre’Davious White and two top-three cover safeties in Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde — quarterback Tom Brady could be a contrarian fade. The Bills have held opposing passers to the fourth-fewest fantasy points this season with 14.2 DraftKings and 13.4 FanDuel PPG.
After their 25-13 defeat of the Colts, the Broncos no longer have the league’s lowest Vegas Opponent Plus/Minus. The distinction of that dubious honor belongs to the Texans, who have been a mess on defense since pass rushers J.J. Watt (leg) and Whitney Mercilus (pectoral) were both lost for the season in the first half of Week 5. The Texans have allowed top-two fantasy marks to quarterbacks with 21.7 DraftKings and 20.0 FanDuel PPG. Even though Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has poor home/road splits and will be without All-Pro wide receiver Antonio Brown, he has the potential for a big performance in Houston on the special Christmas slate. The Packers also warrant attention: They’ve allowed opponents to hit their Vegas expectations in a league-high 10 games, which is the same number of games in which the Vikings have reached their implied total (tied for second). We don’t have Vegas lines yet for the game, but quarterback Case Keenum and the Vikings seem to have an exploitable matchup against the Packers on Saturday.
Over/Under Differential
Offensive production within an NFL contest is often correlated across teams. As a result, many sharp DFS players stack games (instead of just teams) in guaranteed prize pools. To highlight teams that tend to play in games that fall short of or surpass the Vegas total, I’ve created an Over/Under Differential metric. A positive number means that a team on average participates in games that hit the over; a negative number, the under.
The Texans lead the league with a +7.54 Over/Under Differential, but that number contains data from the 7.5 games with Watson and is no longer representative. In the seven games started by Savage and Yates the Texas have a 2-6 over/under record. After the Texans are the high-flying Eagles, who are tied with the Rams for first with 31.29 PPG. Even without starting quarterback Carson Wentz, the Eagles scored 34 points in Week 15 as backup Nick Foles took just one sack and dished out four touchdowns to four different receivers on 38 attempts, finishing as a top-four fantasy passer. While the Eagles are -9.0 home favorites this week, the over/under has dropped from 48.5 to 47.0 points as 92 percent of the bets have been on the under. With their +5.82 Over/Under Differential, the Eagles have the potential to drive this game to a high score against the Raiders, who are a bottom-three team against the pass in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average.
The Falcons (-5.71) and Chargers (-4.93) have the league’s lowest Over/Under Differentials, and that makes sense: No team has offensively underperformed expectations more than the Falcons or defensively overperformed more than the Chargers have. The team with the third-lowest mark is the Bears (-4.68). In their 10 games with Mitch Trubisky at quarterback, the Bears have a 3-7 over/under record. This week they host the Browns, who are last in the league with 14.79 PPG. As of writing, the 38.0-point over/under for this game is easily the lowest of the slate.
Spread Differential
The point spread is the go-to number for Vegas and DFS, as it is predictive of game script and outcome. I’ve created a Spread Differential metric so we can see how teams have done on a PPG basis relative to the spread. A positive number means that a team on average overperforms the spread; a negative number, underperforms.
After the Rams, the Jaguars are atop the league with their +8.96 Spread Differential. Even with Blake Bortles at quarterback, they are going back to the playoffs for the first time since 2007, largely thanks to their defense, which has league-best marks in sacks (51), first downs (220), yards per play (4.6), scoring rate (21.8 percent), and points (209). I’ve been saying all season that their Spread Differential is inflated, but maybe I’ve sold the Jags short: Per PFF, they have two top-12 edge rushers in Calais Campbell and Yannick Ngakoue, three top-15 cover linebackers in Paul Posluszny, Myles Jack, and Telvin Smith, and two top-five cover corners in Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye. Their defense is good enough to make up for most of their quarterback’s shortcomings.
On the other end of the spectrum, it’s hard to determine which team is more pathetic: The Broncos, Texans, or Browns. The Broncos have a league-worst -5.5 Spread Differential. In games started by Savage and Yates the Texans have an -11.0 Spread Differential. And the Browns are last with a 3-11 record against the spread and 0-14 record straight up. In this week’s Forward Pass I note that Hue Jackson is the first NFL coach in history to open two straight seasons 0-14. If Executive Vice President of Football Operations Sashi Brown were still with the team, he’d probably try to trade Hue to the Bengals in the offseason after they fire Marvin Lewis.
Research the Week 16 games with our Tools and Models.
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Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.
