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Week 16 WR Breakdown: Zeke’s Return Bodes Well for Dez

The Wide Receiver Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s main NFL slate. For more of our weekly football content, visit the NFL homepage.

Week 16 is still relevant to the majority of NFL teams, although we’ve seen the Packers shut down Aaron Rodgers (collarbone, IR). The Eagles could rest their starters on Monday night if Brett Hundley and company can upset the Vikings in Lambeau. Be sure to consult our Vegas line and Market Share breakdowns to stay on top of Vegas and workload-related trends heading into Sunday.

Although it has wider applicability, this breakdown is for the 12-game DraftKings and FanDuel main slates.

The Big Three

We’ll likely have to wait until the playoffs to see Antonio Brown (calf, out) again while DeAndre Hopkins won’t showcase his talents until Christmas Day. Our remaining highest-priced receivers are capable of reaching the highest of highs, and it turns out their floors aren’t too shabby either:

  • Julio Jones ($7,900 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel)
  • Keenan Allen ($7,700 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel)
  • Michael Thomas ($7,600 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel)

It’s a special Christmas edition of the WR breakdown, so we’ll replace the typical Led Zeppelin lyrics with mediocre Christmas-song puns. Happy holidays!

All of the other wideouts used to laugh and call him names. They never let poor Julio join in any red-zone games.

It’s Week 16 and Julio Jones has three touchdowns. Offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian hasn’t exactly lit the NFC South on fire; the Falcons have averaged 11.1 fewer points per game compared to last season. But when it comes to Jones’ involvement in the offense, not much has changed. In fact, Jones has actually received more fantasy-friendly targets this season than he did with Kyle Shanahan in 2016:

  • 2016 (14 games): 129 targets, 31 targets of 20+ yards, 10 red-zone targets, 6 targets inside the 10-yard line.
  • 2017 (14 games): 126 targets, 32 targets of 20+ yards, 17 red-zone targets, 10 targets inside the 10-yard line.

Jones has received slightly fewer catchable deep passes than he did a season ago, but has also had a higher drop rate on those passes (Pro Football Focus). Seventeen receivers have over 15 targets inside the 20-yard line, but Jones is the only one without multiple touchdowns. Not helping matters this week is a shadow date against Marshon Lattimore, the Saints’ rookie sensation who has earned PFF’s fourth-highest grade among all cornerbacks this season. Jones converted his 11 targets into a 5-98-0 line during their first battle – although Lattimore more than held his own when they were matched up:

Jones has the highest projected ceiling of our big-three receivers in our Pro Models, but also the lowest projected floor.

Sleigh bells ring, are you listening? In New York, snow is glistening. A beautiful sight, Keenan’s open alright! Walking in a winter wonderland.

Luckily for the Chargers pass offense, there shouldn’t be any snow Sunday in New York as forecasts call for just a 10 percent chance of rain. Be sure to monitor our News Feed for any DFS-relevant weather news Sunday morning. With the weather secure, Allen can set his sights on the Jets’ league-worst defense in DVOA against WR1s. Each of the Jets’ top-three corners rank outside the top-50 full-time defensive backs in yards allowed per cover snap. Allen should spend most of his time across from Buster Skrine, who ranks among the bottom-five full-time nickel corners in quarterback rating, touchdowns, and yards allowed from the slot this season.

Allen is more than capable of taking care of the matchup in front of him, but he’s struggled to provide his typically gaudy numbers without double-digit targets this season. Overall, he’s averaged an 8-110.9-0.7 line in seven games with 10-plus targets compared to a 4.6-60.1-0 line in seven games with nine or fewer targets. Allen hasn’t seen double-digit targets in two weeks, but it would behoove the Chargers to feed their No. 1 receiver with Hunter Henry (spleen, IR) sidelined. His 9.1-point projected floor on DraftKings is the highest mark among all receivers, and he’ll look to become the tenth receiver to surpass 20 DraftKings points on the Jets this season.

Be sure to check out our Ownership Dashboard shortly after lock to view Allen’s ownership levels at various contest sizes. You can analyze our DFS Contests Dashboard to see how the industry’s elite treat one of the game’s premier route runners against a potentially overmatched Jets defense.

Out of all the wideouts, you know you’re the mastermind. Run, run Mike T, Trufant ain’t too far behind.

After scoring just two touchdowns in Weeks 1-12, Michael Thomas has found the end zone in three consecutive games. He’s also scored in three consecutive outings against the Falcons, converting his 39 career targets against the Saints’ division rival into a 27-344-3 line. That included a 10-117-1 showing earlier this month in Atlanta, good for 30.7 DraftKings points – the most points the Falcons have allowed to a wide receiver this season. Thomas had his way with both Desmond Trufant and Robert Alford:

Thomas has at least five catches in 13 of 14 games this season. His salary ties a season high on DraftKings, yet he’s the only receiver priced over $7,000 that has a Projected Plus/Minus above 1.0. Even as one of the most consistent receivers in the league at the Coors Field of Fantasy Football, Thomas can be seen as underpriced for his matchup against the Falcons’ 20th-ranked defense in overall DVOA.

Consider using our Lineup Builder to stack Thomas with Drew Brees on Sunday.

Fly Patterns

Devin Funchess ($6,600 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel): Funchess aggravated a lingering shoulder injury last week, but is expected to suit up Sunday. Be sure to monitor our Injury Dashboard to track daily practice participation and estimated game statuses for all fantasy-relevant players. Funchess has historically posted brutal splits with Greg Olsen active, but much of that production also coincided with the presence of Kelvin Benjamin. Funchess has posted a 4.2-70.7-0.7 line on an average of 7.2 targets in six games since Benjamin was traded, continuing to produce even in three games with Olsen also active. Next up is a Buccaneers secondary that will be without Vernon Hargreaves (hamstring, IR), and they don’t offer another cornerback graded higher than 45th by PFF. The 6’4″ 232-pound Funchess could spend the majority of his day across from 34-year-old Brent Grimes, who is a mismatch at 5’9″ and 177 pounds.

Brandin Cooks ($7,000 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel), Chris Hogan ($5,400 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel), and Danny Amendola ($4,800 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel): Hogan (shoulder, questionable) didn’t play last week, leading to Philip Dorsett and Kenny Britt playing 27 combined snaps and receiving two combined targets. Cooks continued to be the offense’s primary beneficiary from Hogan’s absence:

  • Cooks w/Hogan (9 games): 6.8 targets, 3.8 receptions, 66.8 yards, 0.3 TDs, 12.5 DraftKings PPG
  • Cooks w/o Hogan (5 games): 7.4 targets, 4.8 receptions, 76.6 yards, 0.6 TDs, 16.1 DraftKings PPG

Amendola’s production has suffered without Hogan this season, although he could take on a larger red zone role with Rex Burkhead (knee, doubtful) sidelined. Tom Brady‘s matchup is cause for concern, but the Patriots are certainly capable of making plays against a Bills defense that could be without E.J. Gaines (knee, questionable) – PFF’s No. 26 overall cornerback this season. There could be plenty of fantasy-friendly opportunities to go around considering the Patriots’ current implied total of 29.75 points is the highest mark in Week 16.

Sterling Shepard ($6,600 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel): Shepard converted a career-high 16 targets into an 11-139-1 line against the Eagles last week. He was featured more than usual with Travis Rudolph (hamstring, probable) and then Tavvares King (concussion, questionable) sidelined. Shepard has a tougher matchup this week on the road against the Cardinals’ third-ranked defense in DVOA, although he runs 74 percent of his snaps out of the slot and should thus avoid Patrick Peterson for most of the afternoon. Still, the Cardinals have allowed the seventh-fewest average points per game to slot receivers over their past four games behind the improved play of the Honey Badger Tyrann Mathieu, who has allowed the seventh-fewest yards per cover snap among full-time slot corners since the Cardinals’ Week 9 bye. Note Shepard’s salary has risen by $1,400 and $400 on DraftKings and FanDuel, respectively.

Tyreek Hill ($6,500 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel): All eight of Hill’s touchdowns this season have been at least 30 yards. He’ll now set his sights on a Dolphins defense that is one of just six units to allow more than 50 passes of 20-plus yards. He could see plenty of Xavien Howard, who was instrumental in holding Brandin Cooks to a 1-38-0 line on seven targets two weeks ago, as well as rookie Cordrea Tankersley (shoulder, questionable), who could be seen as an upgrade over the released Byron Maxwell. Still, both corners rank outside of PFF’s top-80 defensive backs, and the Dolphins have allowed an additional 7.7 PPG and 86.4 total yards on the road this season. View each week’s WR/CB matchups using our Matchups tool.

Josh Gordon ($6,300 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel) and Corey Coleman ($4,000 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel): It’s more than fair to question the upside of a DeShone Kizer and Hue Jackson (#HueLakeErieSwim) led offense. Still, Gordon offers serious big-play potential considering he has the highest percentage of targets on balls thrown 20-plus yards downfield among all wide receivers. Only A.J. Green was projected to score more fantasy points last week based on their air yards (per Josh Hermsmeyer). Coleman hasn’t surpassed six targets in a game since Gordon’s return, and both receivers won’t have an easy time getting going in cold and windy Chicago weather against the Bears’ 12th-ranked defense in overall DVOA.

Robert Woods ($6,500 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel), Sammy Watkins ($4,400 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel), and Cooper Kupp ($5,300 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel): Woods regained his role as the Rams’ featured receiver in his first game back from injury, converting a team-high seven targets into a 6-45-1 line. Kupp has averaged 2.2 fewer targets and 8.1 DraftKings PPG in 11 games with Woods healthy this season. Watkins carries upside in every matchup thanks to his team-high 16-yard average target depth, but he’s averaged 2.8 fewer targets per game with Woods active. All three receivers will have a good chance to cash in on their various workloads against the Titans’ 24th-ranked defense in pass DVOA that could be without No. 1 corner Logan Ryan (ankle, questionable).

Mike Evans ($6,400 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel), DeSean Jackson ($4,400 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel), and Chris Godwin ($3,000 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel): D-Jax (ankle, questionable) was seen in a walking boot after the Buccaneers’ Monday night loss to the Falcons and didn’t practice Wednesday. The offense will be without O.J. Howard (foot, IR), potentially opening up 30.4 percent of Jameis Winston‘s target share for his OG receivers Evans and Cam Brate (hip/knee, probable). Evans has averaged two fewer targets per game this season compared to 2016, but he’s also failed to replicate his habit of turning 50/50 balls into 80/20 balls in his favor. Overall, 23 players have at least 15 red zone targets, but only Evans has fewer than four receptions. He has a season-low price tag on DraftKings, but he’ll need to get going against a Panthers defense that has held him to his third-fewest DraftKings PPG among all teams he’s faced more than once. Godwin would likely start across from Evans if Jackson is unable to suit up. The rookie played on 69-of-71 snaps and recorded a 5-68-0 line on 10 targets in his only game as a starter when Evans was suspended.

Marvin Jones ($6,400 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel), Golden Tate ($6,200 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel), and Kenny Golladay ($3,300 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel): The days of Jones receiving double-digit targets appear to be over as long as Golladay is healthy, although the loss of No. 4 receiver T.J. Jones (shoulder, IR) could open up a few extra snaps for each aforementioned starter. Tate leads the team in targets, but it’s hard to guarantee a high weekly floor due to guys like Eric Ebron, Theo Riddick, and Ameer Abdullah racking up seven, three, and four respective targets last week. There’s a case to be made that the Bengals have quit on their apathetic head coach Marvin Lewis and the league’s sixth-best defense in fewest DraftKings PPG allowed to wide receivers has been missing starters Adam Jones (groin, IR), Dre Kirkpatrick (concussion, questionable), Vontaze Burfict (concussion, questionable), Vincent Rey (jaw, questionable), Nick Vigil (ankle, IR) and Kevin Minter (hamstring, IR). Note the Lions have surpassed 30 points in just 10 percent of their road games under Jim Caldwell compared to 29 percent of their home games since he took over in 2014.

Dede Westbrook ($6,100 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel) and Keelan Cole ($4,700 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel): Marqise Lee (ankle, questionable) hasn’t practiced this week, although head coach Doug Marrone said there’s a chance Lee could suit up Sunday. Allen Hurns (ankle, questionable) hasn’t played since Week 10, although he just returned to a limited practice Wednesday. Their potential absences would lead to Westbrook and Cole working in 2-WR sets, with budding superstar undrafted rookie Jayden Mickens working out of the slot. Westbrook’s two targets last week marked the first time in five games he had fewer than six looks. Last year’s Biletnikoff Award winner/president of #TeamPreseason could use a few extra deep balls considering he’s demonstrated the ability to make big plays. Cole and Mickens converted their combined 14 targets into an 11-247-3 line last week and could both again have more opportunities than usual against the league’s fastest-paced offense.

Dez Bryant ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel): Bryant hasn’t managed to surpass 100 yards this season and hasn’t had eight targets in a game since Week 11. The return of Ezekiel Elliott could arguably benefit Bryant more than anyone on the offense: 

Bryant clearly isn’t the player he was during Tony Romo era, but it certainly makes sense that the of the league’s premier touchdown scorers (No. 1 among all WRs since entering the league) and red zone threats (one of seven WRs with 10+ targets inside the 10-yard line in 2017) would see an increase in production with the return of his offense’s engine. His matchup against the Legion of Boom is hardly as intimidating without Richard Sherman (Achilles, IR) and Kam Chancellor (neck, IR). Both Shaquill Griffin and Byron Maxwell rank outside of PFF’s top-65 cornerbacks this season – good news for the league’s most CB-sensitive receiver, although the potential absence of All-World left tackle Tyron Smith (back/knee, questionable) isn’t such great news. Bryant’s price on DraftKings is his lowest with Elliott active this season, and his 2-4 percent projected ownership is well below his season average of 12.9 percent.

Demaryius Thomas ($5,500 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) and Emmanuel Sanders ($4,900 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel): The Broncos aren’t expected to announce a quarterback between Brock Osweiler and Paxton Lynch (ankle, questionable) until Friday. The choice could have a rather large impact on the Broncos’ top two receivers:

  • With Osweiler: Thomas: 10.3 tgts, 6.5-86.9-0.8. Sanders: 7.5 tgts, 4.2-67.2-0.3.
  • With Lynch: Thomas: 8 tgts, 5.5-55.5-0.5. Sanders: 9.3 tgts, 5.25-52-0.3.

The situation looks bleak for everyone involved if Lynch draws the start, as the 2016 first-round pick has failed to throw for multiple touchdowns or surpass 225 passing yards in each of his four career games. It’s tough to assume Thomas and Sanders are capable of meeting their Osweiler averages considering last week was the first time the offense had eclipsed 23 points since Week 2. Thomas’ outlook would be improved if Sanders is ultimately unable to suit up due to an ankle injury, although the Redskins’ eighth-ranked defense in pass DVOA ranks among the top-five units in fewest DraftKings PPG, Plus/Minus, and Consistency Rating allowed to opposing wide receiver units this season (per our Trends Tool).

Marquise Goodwin ($5,200 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel): Goodwin has converted 33 targets from Jimmy Garoppolo into a 24-319-0 line over the past three weeks, but it’s safe to say the Bears, Texans, or Titans’ secondaries shouldn’t be in the same conversation as the Jaguars’ historically elite unit. Antonio Brown is the only wide receiver to surpass 100 yards or 20 DraftKings points on the Jaguars this season. Goodwin does offer an 83 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings and has the type of world-class speed to break away at a moment’s notice, but a heavy dose of Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye – PFF’s No. 2 and No. 5 cornerbacks – hasn’t been a pleasant experience for most mortals in 2017.

Jarvis Landry ($6,300 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel), Kenny Stills ($4,000 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel), and Devante Parker ($4,200 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel): Landry has five-plus targets in every game this season, and the absence of Julius Thomas (foot, IR) and potentially Parker (ankle, questionable) could lead to even more red zone looks for one of just six receivers with at least 20 targets inside the 20-yard line this season. Stills has just three receptions over the past two weeks, but his field-stretching ability could be put to good use against a Chiefs defense that has allowed 13 passes of 40-plus yards this season – tied for the second most in the league. Still, the perennially inconsistent presence of Jay Cutler offers a low floor for everyone involved against a Chiefs defense that hasn’t allowed over 20 points at Arrowhead since October, 2016.

Robby Anderson ($5,000 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel) and Jermaine Kearse ($3,900 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel): Anderson should see a heavy dose of Casey Hayward, PFF’s No. 1 cornerback, who has locked up a fair share of talented receivers since the season’s mid-way point:

  • Josh Doctson: 6 tgts, 3-34-0
  • Josh Gordon: 11 tgts, 4-85-0
  • Dez Bryant: 5 tgts, 3-37-0
  • Brandin Cooks: 8 tgts, 5-26-0

Of course, Hayward was no match for TyFreak’s prime-time magic last Thursday night, and Anderson’s past success with Bryce Petty helped earn him 12 targets in a similarly tough matchup last week against the Saints. Kearse saw just five targets, but Anderson received the more severe price drop across the industry.

The Model Wide Receivers

There are several wide receivers atop the Pro Models built by Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, and Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek), with the following two receivers standing out among multiple models:

    • A.J. Green ($6,700 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel)
    • Larry Fitzgerald ($6,800 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel)

Green briefly found his zone to the tune of a 22-363-3 line in Weeks 3-5 under new offensive coordinator Bill Lazor, but that hot streak burned out quickly. Green has failed to gain over 80 yards in eight of his last nine games while posting four-year lows in average DraftKings points per game, Plus/Minus, and Consistency Rating. His rough stretch won’t get any easier this week on a likely shadow date with Darius Slay, who has limited some of the league’s best this season:

  • Odell Beckham Jr.: 5 targets, 4-36-0
  • Julio Jones: 12 targets, 7-91-0
  • Stefon Diggs (2 games): 7 targets, 5-98-0; 7 targets, 5-66-0
  • Michael Thomas: 6 targets, 3-11-0
  • Antonio Brown: 10 targets, 5-70-0
  • Mike Evans: 5 targets, 2-25-0

Green ranks among the top-four receivers in both overall and red zone target share and remains one of the league’s most-physically talented players at 6’4″ 211 pounds. He has far from an easy matchup against the Lions’ fourth-ranked defense vs. WR1s that has only allowed Juju Smith-Schuster to surpass 20 DraftKings points this season. Still, Green carries the highest Projected Ceiling among all wide receivers and his top-five Projected Plus/Minus indicates the value he carries on DraftKings.

Fitzgerald has caught passes from Drew Stanton, Blaine Gabbert, and Ryan Lindley during the 18 games Carson Palmer has missed since joining the Cardinals in 2013. His ageless old-man game has helped him remain effective with anyone and everyone under center and he’s on his way to another top-10 PPR season. Stanton will be the man at QB this week and he’ll look to keep Fitzgerald rolling at home:

  • Fitz at home since 2015 (23 games): 18.4 DK PPG, +4.0 Plus/MInus, 65% Consistency, 26% Upside, 11.3% Ownership
  • Fitz away since 2015 (22 games): 15.5 DK PPG, +0.8 Plus/Minus, 50% Consistency, 4% Upside, 11% Ownership

Increased consistency and upside are never a bad thing and four of Fitzgerald’s five games of 24-plus DraftKings points have come at home this season. Next up is the Giants’ 25th-ranked defense in pass DVOA that has allowed at least 280 passing yards in half of their games this season. He’s one of just five receivers with a Projected Floor over 7.5 points, although Fitz will run the majority of his snaps across from the Giants’ most-talented healthy corner Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie.

Positional Breakdowns & Tools

Be sure to research the wide receivers for yourself with our tools and read the other Week 15 positional breakdowns.

• Quarterbacks
• Running Backs
• Tight Ends

Good luck this week!

News Updates

After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Stay ahead of your competition with our NFL news feed.

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The Wide Receiver Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s main NFL slate. For more of our weekly football content, visit the NFL homepage.

Week 16 is still relevant to the majority of NFL teams, although we’ve seen the Packers shut down Aaron Rodgers (collarbone, IR). The Eagles could rest their starters on Monday night if Brett Hundley and company can upset the Vikings in Lambeau. Be sure to consult our Vegas line and Market Share breakdowns to stay on top of Vegas and workload-related trends heading into Sunday.

Although it has wider applicability, this breakdown is for the 12-game DraftKings and FanDuel main slates.

The Big Three

We’ll likely have to wait until the playoffs to see Antonio Brown (calf, out) again while DeAndre Hopkins won’t showcase his talents until Christmas Day. Our remaining highest-priced receivers are capable of reaching the highest of highs, and it turns out their floors aren’t too shabby either:

  • Julio Jones ($7,900 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel)
  • Keenan Allen ($7,700 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel)
  • Michael Thomas ($7,600 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel)

It’s a special Christmas edition of the WR breakdown, so we’ll replace the typical Led Zeppelin lyrics with mediocre Christmas-song puns. Happy holidays!

All of the other wideouts used to laugh and call him names. They never let poor Julio join in any red-zone games.

It’s Week 16 and Julio Jones has three touchdowns. Offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian hasn’t exactly lit the NFC South on fire; the Falcons have averaged 11.1 fewer points per game compared to last season. But when it comes to Jones’ involvement in the offense, not much has changed. In fact, Jones has actually received more fantasy-friendly targets this season than he did with Kyle Shanahan in 2016:

  • 2016 (14 games): 129 targets, 31 targets of 20+ yards, 10 red-zone targets, 6 targets inside the 10-yard line.
  • 2017 (14 games): 126 targets, 32 targets of 20+ yards, 17 red-zone targets, 10 targets inside the 10-yard line.

Jones has received slightly fewer catchable deep passes than he did a season ago, but has also had a higher drop rate on those passes (Pro Football Focus). Seventeen receivers have over 15 targets inside the 20-yard line, but Jones is the only one without multiple touchdowns. Not helping matters this week is a shadow date against Marshon Lattimore, the Saints’ rookie sensation who has earned PFF’s fourth-highest grade among all cornerbacks this season. Jones converted his 11 targets into a 5-98-0 line during their first battle – although Lattimore more than held his own when they were matched up:

Jones has the highest projected ceiling of our big-three receivers in our Pro Models, but also the lowest projected floor.

Sleigh bells ring, are you listening? In New York, snow is glistening. A beautiful sight, Keenan’s open alright! Walking in a winter wonderland.

Luckily for the Chargers pass offense, there shouldn’t be any snow Sunday in New York as forecasts call for just a 10 percent chance of rain. Be sure to monitor our News Feed for any DFS-relevant weather news Sunday morning. With the weather secure, Allen can set his sights on the Jets’ league-worst defense in DVOA against WR1s. Each of the Jets’ top-three corners rank outside the top-50 full-time defensive backs in yards allowed per cover snap. Allen should spend most of his time across from Buster Skrine, who ranks among the bottom-five full-time nickel corners in quarterback rating, touchdowns, and yards allowed from the slot this season.

Allen is more than capable of taking care of the matchup in front of him, but he’s struggled to provide his typically gaudy numbers without double-digit targets this season. Overall, he’s averaged an 8-110.9-0.7 line in seven games with 10-plus targets compared to a 4.6-60.1-0 line in seven games with nine or fewer targets. Allen hasn’t seen double-digit targets in two weeks, but it would behoove the Chargers to feed their No. 1 receiver with Hunter Henry (spleen, IR) sidelined. His 9.1-point projected floor on DraftKings is the highest mark among all receivers, and he’ll look to become the tenth receiver to surpass 20 DraftKings points on the Jets this season.

Be sure to check out our Ownership Dashboard shortly after lock to view Allen’s ownership levels at various contest sizes. You can analyze our DFS Contests Dashboard to see how the industry’s elite treat one of the game’s premier route runners against a potentially overmatched Jets defense.

Out of all the wideouts, you know you’re the mastermind. Run, run Mike T, Trufant ain’t too far behind.

After scoring just two touchdowns in Weeks 1-12, Michael Thomas has found the end zone in three consecutive games. He’s also scored in three consecutive outings against the Falcons, converting his 39 career targets against the Saints’ division rival into a 27-344-3 line. That included a 10-117-1 showing earlier this month in Atlanta, good for 30.7 DraftKings points – the most points the Falcons have allowed to a wide receiver this season. Thomas had his way with both Desmond Trufant and Robert Alford:

Thomas has at least five catches in 13 of 14 games this season. His salary ties a season high on DraftKings, yet he’s the only receiver priced over $7,000 that has a Projected Plus/Minus above 1.0. Even as one of the most consistent receivers in the league at the Coors Field of Fantasy Football, Thomas can be seen as underpriced for his matchup against the Falcons’ 20th-ranked defense in overall DVOA.

Consider using our Lineup Builder to stack Thomas with Drew Brees on Sunday.

Fly Patterns

Devin Funchess ($6,600 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel): Funchess aggravated a lingering shoulder injury last week, but is expected to suit up Sunday. Be sure to monitor our Injury Dashboard to track daily practice participation and estimated game statuses for all fantasy-relevant players. Funchess has historically posted brutal splits with Greg Olsen active, but much of that production also coincided with the presence of Kelvin Benjamin. Funchess has posted a 4.2-70.7-0.7 line on an average of 7.2 targets in six games since Benjamin was traded, continuing to produce even in three games with Olsen also active. Next up is a Buccaneers secondary that will be without Vernon Hargreaves (hamstring, IR), and they don’t offer another cornerback graded higher than 45th by PFF. The 6’4″ 232-pound Funchess could spend the majority of his day across from 34-year-old Brent Grimes, who is a mismatch at 5’9″ and 177 pounds.

Brandin Cooks ($7,000 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel), Chris Hogan ($5,400 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel), and Danny Amendola ($4,800 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel): Hogan (shoulder, questionable) didn’t play last week, leading to Philip Dorsett and Kenny Britt playing 27 combined snaps and receiving two combined targets. Cooks continued to be the offense’s primary beneficiary from Hogan’s absence:

  • Cooks w/Hogan (9 games): 6.8 targets, 3.8 receptions, 66.8 yards, 0.3 TDs, 12.5 DraftKings PPG
  • Cooks w/o Hogan (5 games): 7.4 targets, 4.8 receptions, 76.6 yards, 0.6 TDs, 16.1 DraftKings PPG

Amendola’s production has suffered without Hogan this season, although he could take on a larger red zone role with Rex Burkhead (knee, doubtful) sidelined. Tom Brady‘s matchup is cause for concern, but the Patriots are certainly capable of making plays against a Bills defense that could be without E.J. Gaines (knee, questionable) – PFF’s No. 26 overall cornerback this season. There could be plenty of fantasy-friendly opportunities to go around considering the Patriots’ current implied total of 29.75 points is the highest mark in Week 16.

Sterling Shepard ($6,600 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel): Shepard converted a career-high 16 targets into an 11-139-1 line against the Eagles last week. He was featured more than usual with Travis Rudolph (hamstring, probable) and then Tavvares King (concussion, questionable) sidelined. Shepard has a tougher matchup this week on the road against the Cardinals’ third-ranked defense in DVOA, although he runs 74 percent of his snaps out of the slot and should thus avoid Patrick Peterson for most of the afternoon. Still, the Cardinals have allowed the seventh-fewest average points per game to slot receivers over their past four games behind the improved play of the Honey Badger Tyrann Mathieu, who has allowed the seventh-fewest yards per cover snap among full-time slot corners since the Cardinals’ Week 9 bye. Note Shepard’s salary has risen by $1,400 and $400 on DraftKings and FanDuel, respectively.

Tyreek Hill ($6,500 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel): All eight of Hill’s touchdowns this season have been at least 30 yards. He’ll now set his sights on a Dolphins defense that is one of just six units to allow more than 50 passes of 20-plus yards. He could see plenty of Xavien Howard, who was instrumental in holding Brandin Cooks to a 1-38-0 line on seven targets two weeks ago, as well as rookie Cordrea Tankersley (shoulder, questionable), who could be seen as an upgrade over the released Byron Maxwell. Still, both corners rank outside of PFF’s top-80 defensive backs, and the Dolphins have allowed an additional 7.7 PPG and 86.4 total yards on the road this season. View each week’s WR/CB matchups using our Matchups tool.

Josh Gordon ($6,300 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel) and Corey Coleman ($4,000 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel): It’s more than fair to question the upside of a DeShone Kizer and Hue Jackson (#HueLakeErieSwim) led offense. Still, Gordon offers serious big-play potential considering he has the highest percentage of targets on balls thrown 20-plus yards downfield among all wide receivers. Only A.J. Green was projected to score more fantasy points last week based on their air yards (per Josh Hermsmeyer). Coleman hasn’t surpassed six targets in a game since Gordon’s return, and both receivers won’t have an easy time getting going in cold and windy Chicago weather against the Bears’ 12th-ranked defense in overall DVOA.

Robert Woods ($6,500 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel), Sammy Watkins ($4,400 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel), and Cooper Kupp ($5,300 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel): Woods regained his role as the Rams’ featured receiver in his first game back from injury, converting a team-high seven targets into a 6-45-1 line. Kupp has averaged 2.2 fewer targets and 8.1 DraftKings PPG in 11 games with Woods healthy this season. Watkins carries upside in every matchup thanks to his team-high 16-yard average target depth, but he’s averaged 2.8 fewer targets per game with Woods active. All three receivers will have a good chance to cash in on their various workloads against the Titans’ 24th-ranked defense in pass DVOA that could be without No. 1 corner Logan Ryan (ankle, questionable).

Mike Evans ($6,400 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel), DeSean Jackson ($4,400 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel), and Chris Godwin ($3,000 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel): D-Jax (ankle, questionable) was seen in a walking boot after the Buccaneers’ Monday night loss to the Falcons and didn’t practice Wednesday. The offense will be without O.J. Howard (foot, IR), potentially opening up 30.4 percent of Jameis Winston‘s target share for his OG receivers Evans and Cam Brate (hip/knee, probable). Evans has averaged two fewer targets per game this season compared to 2016, but he’s also failed to replicate his habit of turning 50/50 balls into 80/20 balls in his favor. Overall, 23 players have at least 15 red zone targets, but only Evans has fewer than four receptions. He has a season-low price tag on DraftKings, but he’ll need to get going against a Panthers defense that has held him to his third-fewest DraftKings PPG among all teams he’s faced more than once. Godwin would likely start across from Evans if Jackson is unable to suit up. The rookie played on 69-of-71 snaps and recorded a 5-68-0 line on 10 targets in his only game as a starter when Evans was suspended.

Marvin Jones ($6,400 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel), Golden Tate ($6,200 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel), and Kenny Golladay ($3,300 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel): The days of Jones receiving double-digit targets appear to be over as long as Golladay is healthy, although the loss of No. 4 receiver T.J. Jones (shoulder, IR) could open up a few extra snaps for each aforementioned starter. Tate leads the team in targets, but it’s hard to guarantee a high weekly floor due to guys like Eric Ebron, Theo Riddick, and Ameer Abdullah racking up seven, three, and four respective targets last week. There’s a case to be made that the Bengals have quit on their apathetic head coach Marvin Lewis and the league’s sixth-best defense in fewest DraftKings PPG allowed to wide receivers has been missing starters Adam Jones (groin, IR), Dre Kirkpatrick (concussion, questionable), Vontaze Burfict (concussion, questionable), Vincent Rey (jaw, questionable), Nick Vigil (ankle, IR) and Kevin Minter (hamstring, IR). Note the Lions have surpassed 30 points in just 10 percent of their road games under Jim Caldwell compared to 29 percent of their home games since he took over in 2014.

Dede Westbrook ($6,100 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel) and Keelan Cole ($4,700 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel): Marqise Lee (ankle, questionable) hasn’t practiced this week, although head coach Doug Marrone said there’s a chance Lee could suit up Sunday. Allen Hurns (ankle, questionable) hasn’t played since Week 10, although he just returned to a limited practice Wednesday. Their potential absences would lead to Westbrook and Cole working in 2-WR sets, with budding superstar undrafted rookie Jayden Mickens working out of the slot. Westbrook’s two targets last week marked the first time in five games he had fewer than six looks. Last year’s Biletnikoff Award winner/president of #TeamPreseason could use a few extra deep balls considering he’s demonstrated the ability to make big plays. Cole and Mickens converted their combined 14 targets into an 11-247-3 line last week and could both again have more opportunities than usual against the league’s fastest-paced offense.

Dez Bryant ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel): Bryant hasn’t managed to surpass 100 yards this season and hasn’t had eight targets in a game since Week 11. The return of Ezekiel Elliott could arguably benefit Bryant more than anyone on the offense: 

Bryant clearly isn’t the player he was during Tony Romo era, but it certainly makes sense that the of the league’s premier touchdown scorers (No. 1 among all WRs since entering the league) and red zone threats (one of seven WRs with 10+ targets inside the 10-yard line in 2017) would see an increase in production with the return of his offense’s engine. His matchup against the Legion of Boom is hardly as intimidating without Richard Sherman (Achilles, IR) and Kam Chancellor (neck, IR). Both Shaquill Griffin and Byron Maxwell rank outside of PFF’s top-65 cornerbacks this season – good news for the league’s most CB-sensitive receiver, although the potential absence of All-World left tackle Tyron Smith (back/knee, questionable) isn’t such great news. Bryant’s price on DraftKings is his lowest with Elliott active this season, and his 2-4 percent projected ownership is well below his season average of 12.9 percent.

Demaryius Thomas ($5,500 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) and Emmanuel Sanders ($4,900 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel): The Broncos aren’t expected to announce a quarterback between Brock Osweiler and Paxton Lynch (ankle, questionable) until Friday. The choice could have a rather large impact on the Broncos’ top two receivers:

  • With Osweiler: Thomas: 10.3 tgts, 6.5-86.9-0.8. Sanders: 7.5 tgts, 4.2-67.2-0.3.
  • With Lynch: Thomas: 8 tgts, 5.5-55.5-0.5. Sanders: 9.3 tgts, 5.25-52-0.3.

The situation looks bleak for everyone involved if Lynch draws the start, as the 2016 first-round pick has failed to throw for multiple touchdowns or surpass 225 passing yards in each of his four career games. It’s tough to assume Thomas and Sanders are capable of meeting their Osweiler averages considering last week was the first time the offense had eclipsed 23 points since Week 2. Thomas’ outlook would be improved if Sanders is ultimately unable to suit up due to an ankle injury, although the Redskins’ eighth-ranked defense in pass DVOA ranks among the top-five units in fewest DraftKings PPG, Plus/Minus, and Consistency Rating allowed to opposing wide receiver units this season (per our Trends Tool).

Marquise Goodwin ($5,200 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel): Goodwin has converted 33 targets from Jimmy Garoppolo into a 24-319-0 line over the past three weeks, but it’s safe to say the Bears, Texans, or Titans’ secondaries shouldn’t be in the same conversation as the Jaguars’ historically elite unit. Antonio Brown is the only wide receiver to surpass 100 yards or 20 DraftKings points on the Jaguars this season. Goodwin does offer an 83 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings and has the type of world-class speed to break away at a moment’s notice, but a heavy dose of Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye – PFF’s No. 2 and No. 5 cornerbacks – hasn’t been a pleasant experience for most mortals in 2017.

Jarvis Landry ($6,300 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel), Kenny Stills ($4,000 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel), and Devante Parker ($4,200 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel): Landry has five-plus targets in every game this season, and the absence of Julius Thomas (foot, IR) and potentially Parker (ankle, questionable) could lead to even more red zone looks for one of just six receivers with at least 20 targets inside the 20-yard line this season. Stills has just three receptions over the past two weeks, but his field-stretching ability could be put to good use against a Chiefs defense that has allowed 13 passes of 40-plus yards this season – tied for the second most in the league. Still, the perennially inconsistent presence of Jay Cutler offers a low floor for everyone involved against a Chiefs defense that hasn’t allowed over 20 points at Arrowhead since October, 2016.

Robby Anderson ($5,000 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel) and Jermaine Kearse ($3,900 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel): Anderson should see a heavy dose of Casey Hayward, PFF’s No. 1 cornerback, who has locked up a fair share of talented receivers since the season’s mid-way point:

  • Josh Doctson: 6 tgts, 3-34-0
  • Josh Gordon: 11 tgts, 4-85-0
  • Dez Bryant: 5 tgts, 3-37-0
  • Brandin Cooks: 8 tgts, 5-26-0

Of course, Hayward was no match for TyFreak’s prime-time magic last Thursday night, and Anderson’s past success with Bryce Petty helped earn him 12 targets in a similarly tough matchup last week against the Saints. Kearse saw just five targets, but Anderson received the more severe price drop across the industry.

The Model Wide Receivers

There are several wide receivers atop the Pro Models built by Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, and Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek), with the following two receivers standing out among multiple models:

    • A.J. Green ($6,700 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel)
    • Larry Fitzgerald ($6,800 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel)

Green briefly found his zone to the tune of a 22-363-3 line in Weeks 3-5 under new offensive coordinator Bill Lazor, but that hot streak burned out quickly. Green has failed to gain over 80 yards in eight of his last nine games while posting four-year lows in average DraftKings points per game, Plus/Minus, and Consistency Rating. His rough stretch won’t get any easier this week on a likely shadow date with Darius Slay, who has limited some of the league’s best this season:

  • Odell Beckham Jr.: 5 targets, 4-36-0
  • Julio Jones: 12 targets, 7-91-0
  • Stefon Diggs (2 games): 7 targets, 5-98-0; 7 targets, 5-66-0
  • Michael Thomas: 6 targets, 3-11-0
  • Antonio Brown: 10 targets, 5-70-0
  • Mike Evans: 5 targets, 2-25-0

Green ranks among the top-four receivers in both overall and red zone target share and remains one of the league’s most-physically talented players at 6’4″ 211 pounds. He has far from an easy matchup against the Lions’ fourth-ranked defense vs. WR1s that has only allowed Juju Smith-Schuster to surpass 20 DraftKings points this season. Still, Green carries the highest Projected Ceiling among all wide receivers and his top-five Projected Plus/Minus indicates the value he carries on DraftKings.

Fitzgerald has caught passes from Drew Stanton, Blaine Gabbert, and Ryan Lindley during the 18 games Carson Palmer has missed since joining the Cardinals in 2013. His ageless old-man game has helped him remain effective with anyone and everyone under center and he’s on his way to another top-10 PPR season. Stanton will be the man at QB this week and he’ll look to keep Fitzgerald rolling at home:

  • Fitz at home since 2015 (23 games): 18.4 DK PPG, +4.0 Plus/MInus, 65% Consistency, 26% Upside, 11.3% Ownership
  • Fitz away since 2015 (22 games): 15.5 DK PPG, +0.8 Plus/Minus, 50% Consistency, 4% Upside, 11% Ownership

Increased consistency and upside are never a bad thing and four of Fitzgerald’s five games of 24-plus DraftKings points have come at home this season. Next up is the Giants’ 25th-ranked defense in pass DVOA that has allowed at least 280 passing yards in half of their games this season. He’s one of just five receivers with a Projected Floor over 7.5 points, although Fitz will run the majority of his snaps across from the Giants’ most-talented healthy corner Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie.

Positional Breakdowns & Tools

Be sure to research the wide receivers for yourself with our tools and read the other Week 15 positional breakdowns.

• Quarterbacks
• Running Backs
• Tight Ends

Good luck this week!

News Updates

After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Stay ahead of your competition with our NFL news feed.

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