NBA

NBA DFS 2/21/16 Slate Breakdown

We’re separating today’s slates according to FanDuel as DraftKings has isolated the first two games of the day to an Express slate. (That’s right, de-gens. It’s your time to shine!)

Let’s get to it.

Early

New Orleans Pelicans at Detroit Pistons (-5)

Implied Total: 100.8 – 105.8, O/U: 206.5

Jrue Holiday has recorded a usage rate of 31.1% in 25 games without Tyreke Evans, scoring 1.21 DraftKings points per minute in those instances. Bryce Dejean-Jones will continue to start, but no matter: Jrue Holiday logged the second-most minutes for New Orleans in their last game against Philadelphia. He’s also exceeded expectations by +15.06 points over his last five performances. He’s a fine option in cash despite the fact that Detroit has limited opposing point guards to -0.3 points below expectations.

Detroit has a higher Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to centers than Philadelphia (2.4/1.7), but I wouldn’t chase Omer Asik’s 28 DraftKings points just yet: Anthony Davis logged 17 minutes at center in comparison to Asik’s 19. The former is obviously a much safer option if targeting the Pistons in the paint, as proven by his Projected Plus/Minus of +9.4 (despite being priced at $9,700).

Even if the Pistons were to start Anthony Tolliver again, note Marcus Morris, Andre Drummond, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Reggie Jackson, and Tobias Harris were the only players to log over 30 minutes for Detroit in the latter’s debut. Stanley Johnson was the next closest with 22.4. With a clear rotation in play, Tobias Harris, who’s implied to score 24.9 points, is a viable option in cash. Same goes for Reggie Jackson, who squares off against an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.5 at his position. Note his salary suffered a slight decrease of -$100 in his last outing, now showing a Bargain Rating of 81% at FanDuel.

Cleveland Cavaliers at Oklahoma City Thunder (-3)

Implied Total: 106.3 – 109.3, O/U: 217

In their last game versus the Thunder back in December, LeBron James scored 63.8 DraftKings points on a line of 33-9-11. Although he and Russell Westbrook — 27-3-10 that evening – remain the obvious plays in cash, it should be noted that Tristan Thompson hauled in 15 rebounds against them. With Oklahoma City allowing +2.4 points above expectations, he remains an elite cash option at FanDuel where he holds a Bargain Rating of 93%.

If still deciding between Kevin Durant and James, however, James remains the play as his Projected Plus/Minus of +7.6 is 1.7 points higher than that of Durant. His 12 Pro Trends are also considered advantageous as Oklahoma City has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.5 allowed at his position.

Boston Celtics (-3) at Denver Nuggets

Implied Total: 108.3 – 105.8, O/U: 214

With an implied total only three points fewer than the matchup everyone will look to stack, there’s a lot to like here if considering an alternate lineup. For starters, Emmanuel Mudiay remains fine in cash if Jameer Nelson (questionable) is out. Despite his most recent performance of 17.4 points, Mudiay still logged 30.2 minutes against Sacramento. Although Boston has allowed +3.2 points above salary-based expectations to opposing point guards, Mudiay should be ignored if Nelson is declared active — he’s logged -4.1 fewer minutes when both have been healthy. Gary Harris’ continued onslaught of minutes, including 39.5 in their last outing, keeps him in cash considerations, but it’s Will Barton who has the higher-projected floor. Note the latter logged 31.3 minutes in his last performance.

Jusuf Nurkic and Nikola Jokic were both forced into early foul trouble in attempting to defend DeMarcus Cousins (which explains their combined 17.7 minutes that evening), but neither are safe for cash given the constant fluctuation of Denver’s rotation. Instead, targeting their frontcourt seems like the most plausible option as Jared Sullinger has exceeded expectations by +11.8 points in 25.2 minutes over his last five games.

With a projected floor of 25.4 points, Isaiah Thomas remains the safest cash option in this matchup (and arguably most valuable play of the Early slate). Implied to score 34.59 points, his Projected Plus/Minus of +5.0 might even be considered too low as the Nuggets have been spurned for +2.8 points above expectations at the point.

San Antonio Spurs (-15.5) at Phoenix Suns

Implied Total: 110 – 94.5, O/U: 205

Though I’m not suggesting you load up on Phoenix (quite the contrary), whoever is scratched prior to tip-off is certainly worth monitoring up to the minute. In their last matchup with San Antonio (without Markieff Morris, mind you), Tyson Chandler (questionable) dominated the paint for 40 DraftKings points on a line of 8-20-4. Devin Booker and Archie Goodwin — still their primary point guard at that time — finished with 33.3 and 29.8 DraftKings points, respectively. If Chandler and Alex Len (probable) aren’t able to go, the Kris Humphries well (unfortunately) remains open for tournaments: his lowly implied total of 15.7 would be advantageous considering he logged 27.2 minutes without Len in his Suns debut. Mirza Teletovic remains an acceptable play in cash no matter; listed as a small forward, note he logged more time at the four and five en route to a team-high performance of DraftKings points (38.0) and minutes (34.3) in their last game.

Kyle Anderson would likely start for Kawhi Leonard (questionable) again if the latter is ruled out, but note his increase in salary now implies he score at least 17.1 points in order to return value. Considering his average of 21.0 DraftKings points as a starter over his last two games, I would focus on Anderson solely at FanDuel where he includes a Bargain Rating of 90%.

Main

Charlotte Hornets (-7) at Brooklyn Nets

Implied Total: 104.8 – 97.8, O/U: 202.5

I know what you’re thinking: Nets, Hornets, blah. But there are actually quite a few valuable tournament plays in this one, starting with Donald Sloan – he scored 40.5 DraftKings points in 30.1 minutes in their last outing against New York. With the Hornets allowing +1.7 points above salary-based expectations at his position, Sloan remains an under-the-radar GPP play (especially if given another 30-plus minutes). Also, I know you’re still feeling that burn Nicolas Batum left when failing to meet expectations by 8.0 points and all, but note his projected floor of 23.6 points. Now’s as good of time as any to reload, especially in tournaments where recency bias will certainly effect his ownership. Cody Zeller should also warrant consideration, as he logged 31.4 minutes in their last game (recording the second-most DraftKings points for Charlotte).

As for cash, Thaddeus Young has exceeded expectations by 5.07 points over his last 10 games. With a Projected Plus/Minus of +5.4, Young is arguably the No.1 power forward in the six-game Main slate. Brook Lopez is also a strong play as he remains incredulously undervalued at DraftKings (as shown by his 98% Bargain Rating).

Indiana Pacers (-1) at Orlando Magic

 Implied Total: 101.3 – 100.3, O/U: 202

Without Tobias Harris in their last game, Evan Fournier logged 42.2 minutes. The newly-acquired Brandon Jennings was used for 24.7 minutes off the bench, recording a usage rate of 28.8% (second only to Nikola Vucevic). Though it’s always worrisome to roster any player under Scott Skiles’ tutelage in cash, any of Fournier, Oladipo (45 DraftKings points in 41.5 minutes against Dallas), Vucevic, and Aaron Gordon are in play against Indiana — the latter to a lesser extent given his newly implied total of 27.2.

I don’t know if he’s “back”, but Paul George has exceeded expectations by +7.75 points over his last six performances. With a projected floor of 28.5 (and a slate-high Projected Plus/Minus of +5.5 among small forwards), Paul is arguably atop his position in both cash and tournaments. Ian Mahinmi should also be considered heavily in both as he logged 35.4 minutes at center in his last game: Orlando has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.4 points above expectations allowed to centers.

Memphis Grizzlies at Toronto Raptors (-7.5)

Implied Total: 98 – 105.5, O/U: 203.5

Matt Barnes started for Jeff Green in their last game, but it’s JaMychal Green who averaged 1.23 DraftKings points per minute. The latter has now exceeded expectations by +17.11 points in two games since Marc Gasol was shelved. Even if he doesn’t start (and he likely won’t), his miniscule implied total of 17.11 is almost mandatory in tournaments (and I wouldn’t blame you in cash, although I refuse to suggest it because that would clearly lead to my mentions exploding). Zach Randolph remains the strongest play in cash among Memphis’ frontcourt, as his salary suffered a -$100 decrease following a single underwhelming performance. Despite his last game, Randolph has exceeded expectations by +3.42 points over his last 10 games. Conley is the target in their back court, as shown by his slate-high Projected Plus/Minus of +6.1.

Kyle Lowry should be considered a top-three option in the entire player pool tonight as his 86% Bargain Rating at DraftKings includes 1) the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus among point guards and 2) the third-highest projected floor of this entire slate. Still, exposure should remain limited as the implied total of 203.5 in this matchup is the fourth lowest of this entire slate.

Philadelphia 76ers at Dallas Mavericks (-10)

Implied Total: 97 – 107, O/U: 204

Philadelphia has the highest Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to point guards (+4.7) of any team in the league. If Deron Williams (questionable) is ruled out, it’s perfectly acceptable to load up on J.J. Barea – he’s averaged 30.6 minutes and a usage of 23.8% in nine games without Williams this season. Chandler Parsons remains on cash radars no matter who starts alongside him, as the 76ers have allowed +2.4 points above salary-based expectations at his position. Parsons has also averaged 40.4 DraftKings points over his last three performances.

Nerlens Noel has a Dud Percentage of 0% throughout the month of February. Though that kind of consistency screams cash, consider him a strong tournament play, as well (if only because of his likely low ownership).

Los Angeles Lakers at Chicago Bulls (-7)

Implied Total: 100.3 – 107.3, O/U: 207.5

There’s nothing more depressing than rostering E’Twaun Moore in cash, but his Bargain Rating of 99% at FanDuel continues to force our hands. It’s also considered a terrific spot as the Lakers have an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.9 at his position. With Derrick Rose averaging 39.0 DraftKings points on a usage of 32.3% without Jimmy Butler, the entirety of Chicago’s backcourt is in play (if not mandatory) in both cash and tournaments. The same can be said for Pau Gasol (highest floor and Projected Plus/Minus among centers), who compiled a line of 21-12-7 in his last outing against Los Angeles.

Larry Nance logged only 16.7 minutes in his first game back following the All-Star Break. Since Julius Randle is now essentially guaranteed run — he’s averaged 31.0 minutes in his last 10 games – he should be considered in every format. Randle has exceeded expectations in 70% of his last 10 performances.

Utah Jazz at Portland Trailblazers (-3)

Implied Total: 96.8 – 99.8, O/U: 196.5

If Raul Neto or Rodney Hood can guard Damian Lillard, then by all means, fade him entirely, but note his projected floor of 31.5 points remains the highest in the Main slate for a good reason. Still, it’s not the worst idea to limit exposure as Portland, playing with a pace differential of -4.5, and Utah are involved in the lowest-implied total of the night.

For Utah, Rudy Gobert is as strong of option in cash as any center due to his Projected Plus/Minus of +4.6 (third-highest at his position). He’s exceeded expectations by +6.76 points over his last 10 games, accumulating zero Duds in his last 12.

Good luck tonight!

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No related posts.

We’re separating today’s slates according to FanDuel as DraftKings has isolated the first two games of the day to an Express slate. (That’s right, de-gens. It’s your time to shine!)

Let’s get to it.

Early

New Orleans Pelicans at Detroit Pistons (-5)

Implied Total: 100.8 – 105.8, O/U: 206.5

Jrue Holiday has recorded a usage rate of 31.1% in 25 games without Tyreke Evans, scoring 1.21 DraftKings points per minute in those instances. Bryce Dejean-Jones will continue to start, but no matter: Jrue Holiday logged the second-most minutes for New Orleans in their last game against Philadelphia. He’s also exceeded expectations by +15.06 points over his last five performances. He’s a fine option in cash despite the fact that Detroit has limited opposing point guards to -0.3 points below expectations.

Detroit has a higher Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to centers than Philadelphia (2.4/1.7), but I wouldn’t chase Omer Asik’s 28 DraftKings points just yet: Anthony Davis logged 17 minutes at center in comparison to Asik’s 19. The former is obviously a much safer option if targeting the Pistons in the paint, as proven by his Projected Plus/Minus of +9.4 (despite being priced at $9,700).

Even if the Pistons were to start Anthony Tolliver again, note Marcus Morris, Andre Drummond, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Reggie Jackson, and Tobias Harris were the only players to log over 30 minutes for Detroit in the latter’s debut. Stanley Johnson was the next closest with 22.4. With a clear rotation in play, Tobias Harris, who’s implied to score 24.9 points, is a viable option in cash. Same goes for Reggie Jackson, who squares off against an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.5 at his position. Note his salary suffered a slight decrease of -$100 in his last outing, now showing a Bargain Rating of 81% at FanDuel.

Cleveland Cavaliers at Oklahoma City Thunder (-3)

Implied Total: 106.3 – 109.3, O/U: 217

In their last game versus the Thunder back in December, LeBron James scored 63.8 DraftKings points on a line of 33-9-11. Although he and Russell Westbrook — 27-3-10 that evening – remain the obvious plays in cash, it should be noted that Tristan Thompson hauled in 15 rebounds against them. With Oklahoma City allowing +2.4 points above expectations, he remains an elite cash option at FanDuel where he holds a Bargain Rating of 93%.

If still deciding between Kevin Durant and James, however, James remains the play as his Projected Plus/Minus of +7.6 is 1.7 points higher than that of Durant. His 12 Pro Trends are also considered advantageous as Oklahoma City has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.5 allowed at his position.

Boston Celtics (-3) at Denver Nuggets

Implied Total: 108.3 – 105.8, O/U: 214

With an implied total only three points fewer than the matchup everyone will look to stack, there’s a lot to like here if considering an alternate lineup. For starters, Emmanuel Mudiay remains fine in cash if Jameer Nelson (questionable) is out. Despite his most recent performance of 17.4 points, Mudiay still logged 30.2 minutes against Sacramento. Although Boston has allowed +3.2 points above salary-based expectations to opposing point guards, Mudiay should be ignored if Nelson is declared active — he’s logged -4.1 fewer minutes when both have been healthy. Gary Harris’ continued onslaught of minutes, including 39.5 in their last outing, keeps him in cash considerations, but it’s Will Barton who has the higher-projected floor. Note the latter logged 31.3 minutes in his last performance.

Jusuf Nurkic and Nikola Jokic were both forced into early foul trouble in attempting to defend DeMarcus Cousins (which explains their combined 17.7 minutes that evening), but neither are safe for cash given the constant fluctuation of Denver’s rotation. Instead, targeting their frontcourt seems like the most plausible option as Jared Sullinger has exceeded expectations by +11.8 points in 25.2 minutes over his last five games.

With a projected floor of 25.4 points, Isaiah Thomas remains the safest cash option in this matchup (and arguably most valuable play of the Early slate). Implied to score 34.59 points, his Projected Plus/Minus of +5.0 might even be considered too low as the Nuggets have been spurned for +2.8 points above expectations at the point.

San Antonio Spurs (-15.5) at Phoenix Suns

Implied Total: 110 – 94.5, O/U: 205

Though I’m not suggesting you load up on Phoenix (quite the contrary), whoever is scratched prior to tip-off is certainly worth monitoring up to the minute. In their last matchup with San Antonio (without Markieff Morris, mind you), Tyson Chandler (questionable) dominated the paint for 40 DraftKings points on a line of 8-20-4. Devin Booker and Archie Goodwin — still their primary point guard at that time — finished with 33.3 and 29.8 DraftKings points, respectively. If Chandler and Alex Len (probable) aren’t able to go, the Kris Humphries well (unfortunately) remains open for tournaments: his lowly implied total of 15.7 would be advantageous considering he logged 27.2 minutes without Len in his Suns debut. Mirza Teletovic remains an acceptable play in cash no matter; listed as a small forward, note he logged more time at the four and five en route to a team-high performance of DraftKings points (38.0) and minutes (34.3) in their last game.

Kyle Anderson would likely start for Kawhi Leonard (questionable) again if the latter is ruled out, but note his increase in salary now implies he score at least 17.1 points in order to return value. Considering his average of 21.0 DraftKings points as a starter over his last two games, I would focus on Anderson solely at FanDuel where he includes a Bargain Rating of 90%.

Main

Charlotte Hornets (-7) at Brooklyn Nets

Implied Total: 104.8 – 97.8, O/U: 202.5

I know what you’re thinking: Nets, Hornets, blah. But there are actually quite a few valuable tournament plays in this one, starting with Donald Sloan – he scored 40.5 DraftKings points in 30.1 minutes in their last outing against New York. With the Hornets allowing +1.7 points above salary-based expectations at his position, Sloan remains an under-the-radar GPP play (especially if given another 30-plus minutes). Also, I know you’re still feeling that burn Nicolas Batum left when failing to meet expectations by 8.0 points and all, but note his projected floor of 23.6 points. Now’s as good of time as any to reload, especially in tournaments where recency bias will certainly effect his ownership. Cody Zeller should also warrant consideration, as he logged 31.4 minutes in their last game (recording the second-most DraftKings points for Charlotte).

As for cash, Thaddeus Young has exceeded expectations by 5.07 points over his last 10 games. With a Projected Plus/Minus of +5.4, Young is arguably the No.1 power forward in the six-game Main slate. Brook Lopez is also a strong play as he remains incredulously undervalued at DraftKings (as shown by his 98% Bargain Rating).

Indiana Pacers (-1) at Orlando Magic

 Implied Total: 101.3 – 100.3, O/U: 202

Without Tobias Harris in their last game, Evan Fournier logged 42.2 minutes. The newly-acquired Brandon Jennings was used for 24.7 minutes off the bench, recording a usage rate of 28.8% (second only to Nikola Vucevic). Though it’s always worrisome to roster any player under Scott Skiles’ tutelage in cash, any of Fournier, Oladipo (45 DraftKings points in 41.5 minutes against Dallas), Vucevic, and Aaron Gordon are in play against Indiana — the latter to a lesser extent given his newly implied total of 27.2.

I don’t know if he’s “back”, but Paul George has exceeded expectations by +7.75 points over his last six performances. With a projected floor of 28.5 (and a slate-high Projected Plus/Minus of +5.5 among small forwards), Paul is arguably atop his position in both cash and tournaments. Ian Mahinmi should also be considered heavily in both as he logged 35.4 minutes at center in his last game: Orlando has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.4 points above expectations allowed to centers.

Memphis Grizzlies at Toronto Raptors (-7.5)

Implied Total: 98 – 105.5, O/U: 203.5

Matt Barnes started for Jeff Green in their last game, but it’s JaMychal Green who averaged 1.23 DraftKings points per minute. The latter has now exceeded expectations by +17.11 points in two games since Marc Gasol was shelved. Even if he doesn’t start (and he likely won’t), his miniscule implied total of 17.11 is almost mandatory in tournaments (and I wouldn’t blame you in cash, although I refuse to suggest it because that would clearly lead to my mentions exploding). Zach Randolph remains the strongest play in cash among Memphis’ frontcourt, as his salary suffered a -$100 decrease following a single underwhelming performance. Despite his last game, Randolph has exceeded expectations by +3.42 points over his last 10 games. Conley is the target in their back court, as shown by his slate-high Projected Plus/Minus of +6.1.

Kyle Lowry should be considered a top-three option in the entire player pool tonight as his 86% Bargain Rating at DraftKings includes 1) the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus among point guards and 2) the third-highest projected floor of this entire slate. Still, exposure should remain limited as the implied total of 203.5 in this matchup is the fourth lowest of this entire slate.

Philadelphia 76ers at Dallas Mavericks (-10)

Implied Total: 97 – 107, O/U: 204

Philadelphia has the highest Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to point guards (+4.7) of any team in the league. If Deron Williams (questionable) is ruled out, it’s perfectly acceptable to load up on J.J. Barea – he’s averaged 30.6 minutes and a usage of 23.8% in nine games without Williams this season. Chandler Parsons remains on cash radars no matter who starts alongside him, as the 76ers have allowed +2.4 points above salary-based expectations at his position. Parsons has also averaged 40.4 DraftKings points over his last three performances.

Nerlens Noel has a Dud Percentage of 0% throughout the month of February. Though that kind of consistency screams cash, consider him a strong tournament play, as well (if only because of his likely low ownership).

Los Angeles Lakers at Chicago Bulls (-7)

Implied Total: 100.3 – 107.3, O/U: 207.5

There’s nothing more depressing than rostering E’Twaun Moore in cash, but his Bargain Rating of 99% at FanDuel continues to force our hands. It’s also considered a terrific spot as the Lakers have an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.9 at his position. With Derrick Rose averaging 39.0 DraftKings points on a usage of 32.3% without Jimmy Butler, the entirety of Chicago’s backcourt is in play (if not mandatory) in both cash and tournaments. The same can be said for Pau Gasol (highest floor and Projected Plus/Minus among centers), who compiled a line of 21-12-7 in his last outing against Los Angeles.

Larry Nance logged only 16.7 minutes in his first game back following the All-Star Break. Since Julius Randle is now essentially guaranteed run — he’s averaged 31.0 minutes in his last 10 games – he should be considered in every format. Randle has exceeded expectations in 70% of his last 10 performances.

Utah Jazz at Portland Trailblazers (-3)

Implied Total: 96.8 – 99.8, O/U: 196.5

If Raul Neto or Rodney Hood can guard Damian Lillard, then by all means, fade him entirely, but note his projected floor of 31.5 points remains the highest in the Main slate for a good reason. Still, it’s not the worst idea to limit exposure as Portland, playing with a pace differential of -4.5, and Utah are involved in the lowest-implied total of the night.

For Utah, Rudy Gobert is as strong of option in cash as any center due to his Projected Plus/Minus of +4.6 (third-highest at his position). He’s exceeded expectations by +6.76 points over his last 10 games, accumulating zero Duds in his last 12.

Good luck tonight!

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No related posts.