Although tonight is a shorter slate arguably revolving around a single game, there are more than enough bargains to be had throughout. Let’s get to it.
Milwaukee Bucks at Atlanta Hawks (-8.5)
Implied Total: 98.8 – 107.3, O/U: 206
Before box score scavenging, note Paul Millsap and Jeff Teague logged 29.2 and 27.7 minutes due solely to early foul trouble. Had they both not picked up early fouls in the third (and second, for that matter), both would’ve likely logged 30-plus. That bias alone is worth rostering each in a number of tournaments as some, if only viewing the surface, may go back to Mike Scott, who finished with 24 DraftKings points in 24.8 minutes. It helps that Millsap’s projected floor of 23.8 points remains the highest of any player for Atlanta.
Despite coming off their bench, Greg Monroe’s 10 Pro Trends and 98% Bargain Rating at DraftKings keeps him as a solid cash and tournament option. Michael Carter-Williams remains more of a tournament play although he notably exceeded expectations by +6.15 points in 29.3 minutes without Jerryd Bayless (out) in their last game. Still, given his lowly implied total of 23.55 (or an incredulous 18.35 at FanDuel), Jabari Parker remains one of the stronger cash plays in this slate as he’s been one of only three Bucks to average over 36 minutes (Khris Middleton and Giannis Antetokounmpo being the others) since Monroe and Carter-Williams were moved to the bench. The Hawks also have an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.6 at his position.
Washington Wizards at Miami Heat (-1.5)
Implied Total: 98 – 99.5, O/U: 197.5
Not sure how Washington was the only franchise to get screwed into this, but the Wizards will be playing their third game in as many nights. Nene (doubtful) has essentially been ruled out due to the toil consecutive outings has had on his knees. That alone should potentially open up more minutes for Markieff Morris, but his underwhelming 22 minutes in his debut last night leaves much to be desired. I would stray away from him entirely in cash until he either meshes with the offense (although he notably looked poor on defense, as well) or suffers a decrease in salary – he’s currently implied to score at least 26.31 points in order to return value. Depending on who they hand the starting nod to, I’d almost be more inclined to roster Jared Dudley in cash (please don’t tweet and yell at me) given that he’s averaged 30.2 minutes when Nene has been inactive this season.
Marcin Gortat continues to be one of the more dependable rosters in cash among his position. Though his double-double streak came to an end after five consecutive games in last night’s 15-9-2 performance, he’s still exceeded expectations in six straight. With an equivalent projected floor of Karl-Anthony Towns, note Gortat remains -$2,100 cheaper than the latter.
It should shock no one that first and second place in last night’s $27 Mega Crossover had actually stacked the short-handed Heat (Luol Deng, Goran Dragic, Gerald Green, Justise Winslow). With Wade undergoing an MRI today, I wouldn’t rule out going back to it just yet. If anything, consider Josh McRoberts, who scored 44 DraftKings points in 29.8 minutes last night, strictly a tournament play – despite the uptick in run, McRoberts logged 24 of said minutes at center (where Hassan Whiteside will surely cut into).
New York Knicks at Minnesota Timberwolves (-2)
Implied Total: 103 – 105, O/U: 208
Andrew Wiggins continuing to start at the three is worrisome for Carmelo Anthony, but the latter’s peripherals still scream cash – along with the third-highest projected floor in this slate, Anthony leads tonight’s player pool with 13 Pro Trends; his 86% Bargain Rating at DraftKings is also fortuitously opposing a Minnesota defense allowing +2.2 points above salary-based expectations at his position. Unlike Anthony, however, Langston Galloway remains an under-the-radar tournament play as he actually logged more minutes at the point for New York in last night’s matchup with Brooklyn, exceeding expectations by +3.47 points.
Sam Mitchell had shown a hint of competence out of the break, acknowledging that his flouring starting-unit of Ricky Rubio-Zach LaVine-Wiggins-Gorgui Dieng-Karl-Anthony Towns would be used “more in the final two months”. Then Kevin Martin was ruled active and logged 13.4 minutes to LaVine’s 25.7 – not a mirror-image, sure, but certainly concerning. Unless Martin (probable) is scratched, LaVine should be strickened to FanDuel-use only where he has a Bargain Rating of 93%.
There might not be a more obvious cash-play in this slate than Gorgui Dieng. Having exceeded expectations by +12.17 points over his last 10 games, Dieng has actually logged more minutes than Towns (35.5/34.2) in that span. With Nikola Pekovic, Kevin Garnett, and Nemanja Bejelica (already ruled out) likely inactive once again, expect Dieng to spend another 35-plus minutes on the court. Though Towns should see similar run, our models show him with a Projected Plus/Minus of -4.8 due to his recent hike in salary – Towns is now implied to score at least 37.81 points in order to return value.
Golden State Warriors (-3.5) at Los Angeles Clippers
Implied Total: 113.3 – 109.8, O/U: 223
As the highest total (and it’s not really close) in this smaller slate, stacking this game with the obvious options is certainly plausible (if not mandatory). For instance, the Clippers have played the Warriors six times in the last two seasons. Chris Paul has exceeded expectations by +3.03 points over that time, including an average of 52.9 DraftKings points in two games against Golden State this season. Despite a line of 10-11.5, DeAndre Jordan has failed to meet expectations by -3.98 points in that span.
As for the Warriors, Draymond Green and Harrison Barnes have exceeded expectations by +8.21 and +7.55 points against Los Angeles in their six meetings over the last season and a half. Though Stephen Curry has averaged 43.63 DraftKings points over that time, he’s averaged 58.5 points against the Clippers in their two meetings this season.
Good luck!
