The weekly Funnel Defense Ratings uses advanced data to analyze situations in which teams are more likely to pass or run than they usually do. For more of our weekly football content, visit the NFL homepage.
About a month ago I introduced a new funnel metric; see that piece for the explanation on how I created it. The metric has some hits and misses, and there are a couple reasons it’s best thought of as descriptive rather than predictive. First, I don’t incorporate Vegas data (although I’ll include it in the ratings table below), mostly because I don’t have exact numbers on historical run/pass ratios based on Vegas spreads and implied team totals. That’s a large project perhaps for the offseason. Second, and this is important to remember, some teams simply refuse to funnel production to either part of their offense. We saw this with the Steelers in Week 5: Although the opposing Jaguars boasted an elite secondary and were the best against the pass in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), Ben Roethlisberger chucked it 55 times.
I’ve given lots of my thoughts on the pros and cons of this analysis in past pieces, and we’ve written about how sometimes coaches suck at coaching football. Instead of yet another rant, let’s dive right into Week 13 funnel ratings.
Potential Shootout Games
In the table below, I averaged the pass funnel ratings for each team to see which games might be shootouts and which could be more run-heavy. By comparing these to the Vegas totals, which are directly correlated with DFS ownership, we could perhaps gain an edge in GPPs. And that definitely seems to be the case in Week 13, as the game with the lowest over/under — the Dolphins-Broncos affair at 39.5 points — has the week’s highest combined pass funnel rating.
Of course, offensive efficiency matters, and the Dolphins are truly terrible passing the ball this season. Starting QB Jay Cutler has averaged a -4.07 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 20 percent Consistency, and the Dolphins rank 26th in pass DVOA. Cutler has averaged a poor 4.81 adjusted yards per pass attempt, and, while the Broncos rank 27th in pass defense DVOA, they still have talent in the secondary and can give Cutler problems. The Broncos looked better once Trevor Siemian replaced Paxton Lynch last game after the latter QB was injured. Denver could be funneled into the pass game, as the Dolphins rate as the third-strongest pass funnel defense in the league thanks to their putrid pass DVOA of -31.2 percent. This game may not be a shootout given the questionable offensive talent at important positions, but it could be more pass-heavy than expected.
The Buccaneers-Packers tilt has the second-highest combined pass funnel rating, and the total currently sits at 45.0 points. Packers QB Brett Hundley is coming off his best performance of the season in which he put up a 17-245-3 line and 22.4 DraftKings points against the Steelers. He has a lot of talent around him — Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams, and new starting RB Jamaal Williams — and he’ll get a Tampa Bay squad in Week 13 that ranks 30th in pass DVOA. On the other side of the ball, the Bucs will welcome back Jameis Winston, who hasn’t been a fantastic fantasy asset this season but is still posting career-highs this year in completion rate, adjusted yards per attempt, and quarterback rating. The passing offense with DeSean Jackson and Mike Evans could smash against the Packers, who are a strong pass funnel defense, ranking seventh against the run and 22nd against the pass. The Bucs receivers have a week-high DraftKings Opponent Plus/Minus mark of +4.3.
Interestingly, outside of the Philly-Seattle tilt (total of 47), the three games with the highest Vegas totals in Week 13 — Buffalo-New England (48), New Orleans-Carolina (48), and Atlanta-Minnesota (47) — rank as three of the top-four combined run funnel games. The Panthers have a very low pass funnel rating of 33.71 against the Saints, who will likely have CB Ken Crawley back and could have Marshon Lattimore (questionable) back as well. It’s possible that Cam Newton, who has been re-energized as a runner of late, rushing at least seven times in seven of his past eight games, could attempt to win the game that way instead of with his arm. He’s certainly in play for that reason, and also because he has absolutely dominated at the Superdome in his career, averaging 35.49 DraftKings points and a +16.38 Plus/Minus in his three visits.
The other high-total games are a bit more concerning. New England is a sizable 8.5-point favorites against the Bills, who are a moderately strong run funnel defense on the year. The Pats always have massive upside, but it’s also possible that they get up and run the ball in the second half. The Falcons have a strong passing offense, and people will certainly remember Julio Jones‘ explosion just a week ago, but they have actually been more run-heavy than pass-heavy this year and could welcome back Devonta Freeman. If they struggle to get things going through the air against Xavier Rhodes & Co., they could elect to pound the ball as 2.5-point home favorites. Given the prices of Freeman and Tevin Coleman, they likely aren’t appealing options in DFS, but there could be value in looking at the unders of these high-total games given their high combined run funnel ratings.
Notable Potential Funnels
There is only one team with a strong run funnel rating in Week 13: the Indianapolis Colts. They certainly aren’t an amazing run offense — they do have a higher run rating this season, although that says more about their awful passing game than their running game — but Indy faces the NFL’s strongest run funnel defense in the Jaguars, who rank first in pass DVOA but just 24th in rush DVOA. Unfortunately, the Colts don’t really have the horses to take advantage of this potential funnel defense: Frank Gore has been a consistent DFS asset, averaging a +2.08 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 70 percent Consistency over his past 10 games, but he doesn’t have a high ceiling: He hasn’t eclipsed 16 fantasy points since last December. From a run funnel standpoint, there’s not a huge edge in Week 13.
There are four teams with pass funnel ratings greater than 80: the Chargers, Giants, Dolphins, and Buccaneers. The Giants are the wild card of the weekend, especially since they’re starting Geno Smith instead of Eli Manning. Matthew Freedman wrote about Smith in this week’s QB Breakdown:
As a draft prospect in 2013 he was one of the highest-rated passers in the history of my quarterback model, displaying phenomenal accuracy (71.2 percent completion rate) and efficiency (9.2 AY/A) and solid mobility (2.3 yards per carry) in his final college season. It’s possible — possible — that he’s a good quarterback who for the first part of his career was sabotaged by circumstance. Giants HC Ben McAdoo isn’t the long-term guy to help Geno resurrect his career, but at least he should have a pass-heavy game script as a +9.5 road dog against the Raiders, who are dead last in pass defense DVOA.
Only degenerates will roster Giants players this week, but it just might pay off.
The Chargers, on the other hand, should be quite popular: They’re massive 14-point favorites implied for a slate-high 29.0 points against the Cleveland Browns. If there is one positive about the Browns this season, it is their run defense: They rank second in rush DVOA. That said, they’ve been a poor pass defense, ranking 27th in DVOA, and that sets up perfectly for the Chargers, who own the league’s fourth-highest pass rating. Philip Rivers exploded for 434 yards and three touchdowns on Thanksgiving against the Cowboys, and he and Keenan Allen could keep things rolling in Week 13. The Chargers are fourth in the league in pace this season when leading by seven-plus points, which is encouraging given the large spread of this game.
Last week I added a column titled “Oppo” to the first table and brought it back this week. It is the absolute value of the difference between each team’s run/pass rating and the defense’s run/pass funnel rating. It highlights negative situations, such as when a pass-heavy team faces a team that is a strong run funnel. The teams with the highest (or worst) Oppo scores are the Jaguars and Bears, who have extremely high run ratings but face strong pass funnel defenses in the Colts and 49ers, respectively. The latter matchup is particularly intriguing, as it features two teams with vastly different goals: The Bears are run-heavy and slow-paced while the 49ers are the fastest team in the league and could be even more pass-heavy this week with Jimmy Garoppolo getting his first start. The team with the lowest (or best) Oppo mark is the Bucs, who want to throw the ball and face a Packers team that funnels production in that direction.
Good luck, and research the Week 13 games for yourself with our Tools and Models.
——
Bryan Mears is an editor at FantasyLabs and host of the Daily Fantasy Flex podcast.
