The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a five-game slate starting at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Only four PGs on tonight’s slate have a FanDuel salary above $5,700, and of that group, Goran Dragic provides the best combination of recent production and matchup, with the Heat getting to take on the abysmal Cavs defense. The Cavaliers rank 27th in defensive efficiency and have allowed the second-highest Plus/Minus to opposing PGs on FanDuel this season:
Dragic leads the PG position with 11 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where his $6,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97 percent.
Values
Tim Frazier remains affordable on DraftKings at $4,100 and should continue to serve as the starting PG for the Wizards with John Wall sidelined. He’s seen the largest increase in DraftKings Plus/Minus in the three games without Wall this season:
It should be noted that he has averaged only 21.25 DraftKings points in those games. While that’s not an issue at his current salary on DraftKings, he would need to do more than that to pay off his $4,900 salary on FanDuel. He might be worth some fade consideration there, especially considering his Opponent Plus/Minus of just +0.75 against the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Playing time has been an issue for Jamal Murray all season, as he’s lost minutes to Emmanuel Mudiay at PG and Gary Harris and Will Barton at SG. But he played 37 minutes in his last game despite the team being fully healthy. If he’s going to play that much moving forward, he looks like a major value at his current salary on both sites. But be wary of his brutal matchup tonight against the Utah Jazz; he has an Opponent Plus/Minus of -1.25 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Devin Booker‘s injury resulted in a monster game for Mike James, which wasn’t entirely surprising: James has seen the largest bump in usage on the team with Booker off the court this season. Booker is currently questionable for today’s contest, but has said that he is hopeful he’ll play. James would likely revert to his usual role if Booker is active, but he still might be able to return value in that role given his matchup with the defensively challenged Chicago Bulls.
No team has a better matchup at PG today than the Bulls, but unfortunately their PG situation has been a bit of a rollercoaster this season. Jerian Grant has looked like the best option recently, averaging a Plus/Minus of +11.89 over his past two contests, but Kris Dunn always lurks as a potential threat for minutes. One of the two will likely return value on this slate, and the uncertainty between the two will likely lead to reduced ownership for both in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Shooting Guard
Stud
Bradley Beal has not disappointed in his three games without Wall this season, averaging a usage rate of over 35 percent and 43.5 DraftKings points per game:
Beal has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.53 for today’s matchup against the Timberwolves, but that likely undersells how difficult his matchup is. He should draw the defense of Jimmy Butler, who ranks third this season among SGs in Defensive Real Plus/Minus and has the reputation of being a lock-down defender. That said, Beal’s matchup probably doesn’t matter at his current salary: It’s tough to fade a projected usage rate of 35 percent at a salary below $8,000.
Value
Gary Harris has been a really nice contributor on DraftKings recently:
The only blemishes on his record are a blowout loss to the Rockets where he only played 30 minutes and a brutal matchup against the wing defenders of the Oklahoma City Thunder. Other than that, he’s been a pretty good bet to see solid minutes and return value. He has a tough matchup tonight against Utah, but the Jazz haven’t been nearly as tough on wing defenders this season, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.37 for Harris on DraftKings. He remains affordable at $5,200 (95 percent Bargain Rating).
Fast Break
Wayne Ellington has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +8.52 today against the Cleveland Cavaliers, which is one of the top marks of the day regardless of position. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +11.07 over his past four games and is coming off a game where he saw 30 minutes of playing time.
Jimmy Butler has been playing much better recently, averaging a Plus/Minus of +4.26 on DraftKings over his past 10 games. He has one of the top Bargain Ratings of the day at 99 percent, and his 10 Pro Trends trail only Beal’s among SG-eligible players on DraftKings.
Virtually every game is a pace-up spot for the Utah Jazz, but today’s matchup against the Nuggets results in an extremely large pace differential of +7.1 for the Utah players. Rookie guard Donovan Mitchell is another SG with a big pricing discrepancy between the two sites. He has led the Jazz in usage for the majority of the season, and comes in with a Bargain Rating of 95 percent on DraftKings.
Small Forward
Studs
SF features the two highest-salaried players of the day in LeBron James and Giannis Antetkounmpo, and choosing between the two is going to be difficult. In terms of recent form, the edge clearly belongs to LeBron: He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +2.08 on DraftKings over his past 10 games, compared to -1.47 for Giannis. The results for Giannis have been even bleaker recently, averaging a Plus/Minus of -6.07 over his past four games. The addition of Eric Bledsoe to the Milwaukee offense has had a clear impact on Giannis’ usage, as he’s seen a 3.6 percent decrease when sharing the court with his new teammate:
Meanwhile, LeBron continues to do everything for the Cleveland Cavaliers, resulting in a slate-high average of 1.53 fantasy points per minute over the past month. He leads the slate in median, ceiling, and floor projections on DraftKings, where he also leads the slate with 12 individual Pro Trends. For cash games, it’s tough to discount the safety that LeBron provides.
But Giannis has the clear edge between the two when it comes to matchup. With the Kings on the docket tonight, Giannis has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.70. The Vegas over/under on that game has also increased by a slate-high 1.5 points since opening. We’re currently projecting Giannis for lower ownership than LeBron on both FanDuel and DraftKings, which increases his appeal for GPPs.
Value
Denzel Valentine has been extremely solid for the Bulls recently:
His main issue has been minutes, with the Bulls getting blown out at a pretty regular frequency. That doesn’t figure to be an issue today, however, with the Bulls currently favored by 1.5 points against the Phoenix Suns. Valentine is coming off a game where he played nearly 40 minutes against the Heat, and he could do a lot of damage against Phoenix if he were to see similar playing time today.
Fast Break
Otto Porter is one of the more intriguing SF targets on today’s slate. If Butler does spend the majority of his time on Beal, that will likely result in Porter getting an extremely exploitable matchup against Andrew Wiggins, who ranked 72nd out of 74 qualifiers at SF in DRPM last season. Additionally, no one on the Wizards has seen a larger increase in Plus/Minus with Wall off the court this season than Porter:
He’s a stronger value today on DraftKings, where his $6,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97 percent.
TJ Warren has struggled in his past two games but still figures to be a massive part of the Suns offense moving forward. He’s averaged 36.1 FanDuel points per 36 minutes in games without Bledsoe this season and has played at least 38 minutes in three of his past five games.
Power Forward
Stud
Derrick Favors has played well since taking over for the injured Rudy Gobert, averaging 34.13 FanDuel points per game over his past eight. He does have a tough matchup today against the Denver Nuggets, who have posted the third highest rebound rate this season. His resulting Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.46 is concerning, especially considering his salary has been increased to a season-high $6,900 on FanDuel. Still, PF is largely devoid of talent, and paying up for Favors provides some safety at what should be a weak position on today’s slate.
Values
Markieff Morris has gradually increased his minute count since returning from injury, playing 34 and 30 in his past two games. He’s another member of the Wizards who should see an uptick in usage with Wall sidelined.
Kelly Olynyk has seen his minutes increase recently with Hassan Whiteside battling an injury, and he’s responded by posting an average Plus/Minus of +7.19 on FanDuel over his past three games. He has a solid matchup today against the Cleveland Cavaliers, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.46 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Zach Randolph played 30 minutes in back-to-back games before getting literally run off the court in his last matchup with the Golden State Warriors. That shouldn’t be a problem today against the Milwaukee Bucks, who are currently playing at the fourth-slowest pace in the league. The Bucks have also been the NBA’s worst rebounding team, and Randolph is a strong bet to lead the Kings in usage when he’s on the court.
Bobby Portis isn’t playing many minutes for the Bulls, but his average of 1.09 fantasy points per minute on FanDuel ranks atop PF charts. The Suns have been destroyed by PFs this season, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.72 for Portis on today’s slate.
Center
Studs
Nikola Jokic and Karl-Anthony Towns are coming off big performances, but both have tough matchups on today’s slate. Towns is taking on the Washington Wizards, which results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.86 on DraftKings. No center on today’s slate is projected to play more minutes than Towns, but he’s been surprisingly pedestrian this season, averaging just 1.18 fantasy points per minute.
Jokic has been a much more effective player (1.46 fantasy points per minute over the past month), but he has a brutal matchup today against the Utah Jazz. Even with Gobert missing the past few weeks, the Jazz have allowed an average Plus/Minus of -1.92 to opposing centers this season. Jokic does have some appeal as a GPP option on DraftKings, where his $8,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
Values
Marcin Gortat has seen a solid increase in FanDuel Plus/Minus with Wall off the court this season:
He’s been priced down to just $4,900 for today’s matchup with the Timberwolves, which should be an excellent one for Gortat: Towns has been horrid as an individual defender. Gortat’s Opponent Plus/Minus comes in at +5.11 tonight.
Willie Cauley-Stein looks like a major value on DraftKings, where his current $5,100 salary results in a Bargain Rating of 99 percent. He’s smashed over his past 10 games, averaging a Plus/Minus of +5.89, and he has one of the best matchups of the day against the Milwaukee Bucks.
Fast Break
Kevin Love will likely be overlooked on today’s slate, especially considering his poor production in his last game against the 76ers. Today’s matchup against the Heat is far easier, however: He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.59 and a Bargain Rating of 93 percent on DraftKings.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed:
