NBA is back! Let’s get to it.
Utah Jazz at Washington Wizards (-1)
Implied Total: 97.8 – 98.8, O/U: 196.5
Tagged with the lowest implied total of this three-game slate, I admittedly won’t have much exposure in this one. Alas, there are still a few values to be had.
Washington has the highest Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to point guards. With Trey Burke questionable for tonight, Rodney Hood (rather than Raul Neto) should be heavily considered as he averaged 39 minutes in their last two games without Burke. Even if Neto were to see extended run (something Quin Snyder has failed to show confidence in), Washington has allowed +1.1 points above expectations at shooting guard. With the most Pro Trends and highest-projected floor at his position, Hood makes for an elite option in both cash and tournaments.
John Wall has exceeded expectations by a whopping +8.69 points over his last 10 games, but his Projected Plus/Minus of -3.4 is concerning if paying up for him – Wall is the highest-priced point guard in this slate. With Chris Paul (we’ll get there) having higher peripherals (and a lower salary) across the board, Wall is better rostered in tournaments rather than cash tonight. An equivalent argument could be made for Bradley Beal who, despite exceeding expectations by +6.53 points as a starter over his last five games, has the second-lowest Projected Plus/Minus at his position.
Chicago Bulls at Cleveland Cavaliers (-12.5)
Implied Total: 97.5 – 109.5, O/U: 207
Although Derrick Rose has scored an additional +10.2 DraftKings points on an increased usage rate of 32.8% without Jimmy Butler this season, our models show him with a Projected Plus/Minus of -3.5. With the Cavaliers being home favorites of double-digits, exposure should remain scarce towards Rose in tournaments – his projected floor of 13.5 points certainly isn’t ideal in cash given the other options, but note his 95% Bargain Rating at FanDuel. The same goes for E’Twaun Moore, who has an absurd 99% Bargain Rating across sites.
Outside of LeBron James (whose projected floor of 32.8 points is the highest of tonight’s player pool), the next best option in cash games for Cleveland remains Kyrie Irving. His projected floor of 24.3 might be -1.2 points lower than that of Wall’s (and -4.0 lower than Paul), but Irving’s Projected Plus/Minus of +2.5 remains the second highest at his position.
Pau Gasol is considered an elite option in this shorter slate as he has the highest-overall rating in our Phan Model. Still, Cleveland’s dominance of opposing front courts should be noted – the Cavs have an Opponent Plus/Minus of -1.3 allowed to small forwards and -1.8 allowed to centers. Gasol’s projected floor of 27.4 keeps him in cash considerations, but an abundance of exposure in tournaments would certainly be worrisome. Bobby Portis remains a great option at FanDuel where he’s implied to score only 13.99 points in order to return value.
San Antonio Spurs (-4.5) at Los Angeles Clippers
Implied Total: 105 – 100.5, O/U: 205.5
With 13 Pro Trends and a 97% Bargain Rating at DraftKings, Chris Paul makes for arguably the best cash play at his position. His projected floor of 28.3 stands +2.8 points higher than that of John Wall’s; his Projected Plus/Minus of +3.9 is +1.4 points greater than that of Irving’s. With a Consistency Percentage of 66% (as well as an astounding Dud Percentage of 8%) over his last 12 games, Paul is as safe of option as any against a Spurs defense allowing +1.2 points above salary-based expectations at the point.
Without Tim Duncan this season, the Spurs have allowed 41.8 opponent rebounds per 48 minutes — the most given up when any San Antonio player has been off the court. With Duncan on the floor, they’re allowing only 37.2. Though DeAndre Jordan remains a stout cash play in this slate (and includes a Bargain Rating of 98% at DraftKings), there’s reason to limit exposure in tournaments given San Antonio’s Opponent Plus/Minus of -1.5 allowed to centers.
LaMarcus Aldridge makes for the easiest roster at his position considering his 90% Bargain Rating at DraftKings; the Clippers have also allowed +2.3 points above salary-based expectations to opposing power forwards. If paying up for LeBron James ($9,800) rather than Kawhi Leonard ($7,500), it only makes sense to target Los Angeles with Aldridge (where they allow the most points above expectations of any team on tonight’s schedule).
Good luck!
