The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features an eight-game slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Studs
Steph Curry is questionable for today’s slate, joining teammates Kevin Durant and Draymond Green on the injury report. This is going to be an important situation to monitor throughout the day, but if Curry is able to play while his teammates can’t, he should garner a lot of attention. Durant has already missed three games this season and Curry has dominated in his stead, averaging a usage rate of 37.2 percent and 62.74 FanDuel points per 36 minutes:
With that said, Curry has an unspectacular matchup with the Kings on deck: They rank 27th in defensive efficiency but make up for it by playing at the third-slowest pace in the league. Curry does lead the position with 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where his $9,700 salary comes with an 81 percent Bargain Rating.
Note: Curry was ruled out for tonight’s game on Monday afternoon.
The Houston Rockets are in an interesting spot today against the Brooklyn Nets. On one hand, playing against the Nets is typically excellent for fantasy purposes: They play at the fastest pace in the league while ranking 25th in defensive efficiency. Unsurprisingly, the Rockets lead the slate with an implied team total of 122.5 points in this matchup. But the Rockets are massive 17-point favorites, which makes it questionable that any of Houston’s regulars will see full minutes. The juicy matchup likely outweighs the spread concerns: Players projected for at least 25 minutes in games with comparable Vegas implications have historically exceeded expectations by a solid amount:
One player who fits the above trend is Chris Paul, who has a Bargain Rating of 99 percent on DraftKings. He played 31 minutes in his last game, which is his most since returning from injury, and his average of 1.51 fantasy points per minute over the past month trails only James Harden and Joel Embiid among those playing tonight.
Value
Jarrett Jack has played at least 32 minutes in three straight games for the New York Knicks, averaging a Plus/Minus of +9.69 over that time frame. He’s dirt cheap on DraftKings ($3,900), and PGs with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically been solid investments:
No one at the position has a better Opponent Plus/Minus on today’s slate than Darren Collison, who has posted a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel in each of his past six games. Victor Oladipo is questionable for today’s contest, and Collison has seen a usage bump of three percent and averaged more than 35 FanDuel points per 36 minutes with Oladipo off the court this season:
Fast Break
Spencer Dinwiddie is coming off a poor performance against the Memphis Grizzlies, but he remains a big part of the Nets offense, given all of their injuries. He has another tough individual matchup today against Paul, who ranked first among PGs in Defensive Real Plus/Minus by a considerable margin last season, but the pace of this game should provide Dinwiddie with a lot of opportunities to rack up counting statistics.
Matchups for PGs don’t get much worse than the San Antonio Spurs: They’ve allowed the third-lowest average Plus/Minus on DraftKings to the position on this season:
But Dennis Smith Jr is likely underpriced at $5,000 on DraftKings given his current role in the Mavericks offense. He leads the team with a usage rate of 29.7 percent and should see his minutes continue to increase as the season goes on.
Shooting Guard
Stud
How to approach James Harden is one of the biggest decisions on today’s slate. His role should theoretically decrease as Paul further integrates himself into the offense, but Paul’s presence hasn’t stopped him from posting a usage rate of at least 37.2 percent in each of the past two games. Head coach Mike D’Antoni has done a nice job staggering his rotation so that both Harden and Paul each get to play a solid chunk of minutes by themselves in each contest.
In addition to the usage breakdown, there are two other big caveats with Harden on today’s slate. The first is the massive spread, which is going to make it tough to trust him in cash games. The other is that the Nets have been much better defensively against guards than opposing big men, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +1.10 for Harden. It’s tough to find someone with more upside for guaranteed prize pools – his Ceiling projection of 72.5 DraftKings points ranks first on today’s slate – but he’s far from a slam dunk at his current salary.
Value
Here’s what Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has done over his past 10 games:
KCP is playing all the minutes he can handle for the Lakers, seeing at least 34 in each of his past 10 games. He has an excellent matchup today against the Los Angeles Clippers, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.58. He remains underpriced on DraftKings, where his $5,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93 percent.
Fast Break
Kristaps Porzingis is currently questionable for the Knicks, and if he were to sit, Tim Hardaway Jr. would likely become a usage monster. He’s increased his usage by 6.5 percent with Porzingis off the floor this season, averaging 36.48 FanDuel points per 36 minutes:
He’s a better value on FanDuel today, where his Bargain Rating of 86 percent is one of the top marks among SGs.
Lou Williams continues to play big minutes for the Clippers, seeing at least 36 in each of their past six competitive games. His salary has dropped a bit from its peak, and his current $6,500 price tag on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 95 percent. His usage rate of 27.3 percent trails only Blake Griffin’s for the Clippers this season.
Small Forward
Stud
LeBron James continues to do everything for the Cleveland Cavaliers, posting a 27-point, 13-assist, 16-rebound triple-double in his last game. The Philadelphia 76ers are playing at the fourth-fastest pace this season, which results in a pace differential (paceD) of +2.5 for LeBron and the rest of the Cavs today. The 76ers have been somewhat tough on SFs this season, giving LeBron an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +1.54 on DraftKings. Robert Covington is one of the best wing defenders in the league in terms of DRPM. But LeBron is matchup-proof: He’s historically been excellent when matched up with Covington and the 76ers in the past:
LeBron is especially appealing today on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
Values
No one in the NBA DFS industry may be getting less respect right now than Harrison Barnes. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in eight of his last nine games, yet he’s almost always owned at a minimal rate:
He does have a difficult matchup today against the San Antonio Spurs, but DraftKings has responded by lowering his salary to just $5,500. Barnes went for 34.0 DraftKings points in this same matchup just two weeks ago, so it’s not inconceivable to think he’ll have another good night. He has a DraftKings Bargain Rating of 98 percent.
Bojan Bogdanovic is coming off a subpar game against the Boston Celtics, but most players have struggled against the Celtics this season. Prior to that, he had returned value in five straight games and seen at least 35 minutes of court time in four straight. He has a strong matchup today against the Orlando Magic, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.47 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Courtney Lee has smashed over his past 10 games:
Despite his awesome production, his salary has increased by just $500 on DraftKings over that time frame. Lee, who has a Bargain Rating of 90 percent on DraftKings, is another candidate to see an increased role if Porzingis sits.
Wesley Johnson has played heavy minutes recently given the injury to Danilo Gallinari, who is going to miss yet another game with a strained glute. He should benefit from today’s matchup with the Lakers, who are currently playing at the third-fastest pace in the league.
Power Forward
Stud
Blake Griffin has fully realized his potential over his past two games, turning an average usage rate of 36.5 percent into 47.5 and 58.5 DraftKings points. He’s likely underpriced at $9,000 on DraftKings if he can maintain that usage rate going forward, especially in an awesome matchup against the Lakers. Opposing PFs are averaging the fourth-highest Plus/Minus against them:
Griffin leads the PF position with 11 Pro Trends on DraftKings, where his current salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93 percent.
Value
Larry Nance Jr. is targeting a return on today’s slate, which is going to create a potential log jam at the PF position for the Lakers. Nance had been starting and playing close to 30 minutes per game before his injury, but Julius Randle has been a force for the Lakers recently. It’s likely that one of those two players is underpriced at the moment depending on how many minutes Nance can be expected to play in his first game back from injury. The Clippers have been one of the better matchups this season for PFs, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.70 for Nance and +5.34 for Randle.
Fast Break
It sounds like Kristaps Porzingis is closer to probable than questionable for tonight’s game against the Trail Blazers. He’d be a massive value play if he’s able to suit up; his $8,300 salary on DraftKings seems particularly egregious. Porzingis’ average of 1.35 fantasy points per minute over the past month leads all PFs on today’s slate.
LaMarcus Aldridge may lose some usage with Tony Parker likely to rejoin the team today, but he should be able to make up for that with rebounds versus the Mavericks. Dallas has the sixth-worst rebound rate this season, and Aldridge went for 50.0 FanDuel points against them in their previous meeting.
Center
Stud
Joel Embiid gets to face the Cleveland Cavaliers today, which could result in a monster performance. The Cavs have been brutal against centers, allowing an average Plus/Minus of +2.85 to the position on FanDuel this season. Embiid hasn’t needed to play heavy minutes recently thanks to the 76ers playing in a couple of blowouts, so he should be clear to play around 34 minutes in this contest if needed. His salary has decreased to $9,700 on FanDuel after peaking at $11,000, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 98 percent. If Simmons were to miss today’s contest, Embiid would get in a nice boost in value: He’s averaged a usage rate of 37.7 percent and 52.18 FanDuel points per 36 minutes with Simmons off the court this season:
Value
Clint Capela is in one of the best spots of the day regardless of position, with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +7.20 on DraftKings. The Nets have been dominated by centers all season, and Capela has posted an average Plus/Minus of +2.26 over his past 10 contests.
Fast Break
Andre Drummond put up an uncharacteristic dud against the Cavaliers the other night, but otherwise it’s been business as usual for the Pistons big man. He leads all centers with 13 Pro Trends on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 86 percent.
Nikola Vucevic has smashed in four straight games, averaging a Plus/Minus of +8.44. He has an excellent matchup today against the Pacers, who have historically been one of the worst rebounding teams over the past few seasons. He remains affordable on DraftKings at $7,300, where his salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95 percent.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed:
